Posted on 10/31/2004 12:46:07 PM PST by crushelits
Zogby
John Zogby is the most overrated pollster in the country. He used to be an ulta-liberal radical activist, and his opinions continue to color his polls. In 2002, he got most of the close races wrong, with a consistent bias towards Democrats that probably cost Republicans a Senate seat. After that, many Republican politicians started an unofficial boycott of Zogby.
In May of this year, Zogby said, “John Kerry will win the election.” Any pollster who makes that kind of statement that early in a campaign cannot be trusted. Our DJ Drummond has made clear that he has a very, very low opinion of Zogby.
Now The American Thinker weighs in with this:
Pollsters are allowed to be wrong. It is, after all, an inexact science, and all pollsters tell you that their forecast must be considered in light of a particular poll’s margin of error associated with the poll’s sample size, usually 3 to 4%.But what has differentiated Zogby from other pollsters, is his hawking of Senator Kerry’s prospects. On Thursday, with his own national survey showing Bush up 2%, and Bush ahead in five of his ten battleground state polls and tied in a sixth, Zogby was telling everybody that Kerry was surging and would win. On Friday, Zogby showed the race tied, while two other national surveys showed Bush up by 5%, and three other tracking polls showed the race tied, or Bush up 2% and 3%. None of the other pollsters were making any predictions yet. Why was John Zogby doing so?
Zogby needs to be Zotted!
Regardless of the outcome of the election, Zog's reputation
is ruined. He's announced who the winner is going to be,
very publically, several times in the last 3 weeks, and his
answer has flip-flopped more than a Kerry position.
he is just a msm mouth piece .
he gave money to kerry campaign.
He's a little darling of the Democrats.
His brother is head of the Arab American Association which is very anti Bush and anti American.
Zogby is as reliable as a CNN on-line poll. A big waste of time.
Just spike the polls to Bush a little bit, then drop them down fast so that it seems that the other side is gaining ground.
I don't selectively attack pollsters. Also Zogby was way off in the 2002 senate races. To me I don't care what teh polls say though if someone is predicting in the spring that the race is Kerry's to lose then I take what that person says with a grain of salt.
Welcome to FR.
I agree it was dumb of Zogby to predict a Kerry victory so early, he was probably seeing numbers back then that the war was not very popular (although, not very unpopular either except among the far left) and that Bush's negatives were high and drew his conclusion from that. What he forgot to factor was that Kerry was still somewhat unknown and once he made his positions clear his negatives would rise too. Now, Kerry's negatives are higher than Bush's!
Anyway, what do you know about Zogby's methods? It is called the "interactive" and I want to know if it is self-selecting (i.e. only people who register with Zogby get polled) or if it is an invite only online poll or something else that is unorthodox?
Film at 11!
What do you mean we, newbie?
I really don't know about his methods. I don't follow polls that closely or the pollsters. There are many more Freepers here that are more versed in how the various pollsters conduct their polls.
Wow did he get pulled already???
Darn I didn't get to see his reply!!!!
wow. i'm a registered republican and will be voting for bush, yet when i try to inject some non-delusion into the discussion i get posting pledges revoked. you guys are awesome.
i won't be posting anymore so just to leave you with some parting facts:
* Zogby was the only pollster to correctly predict Pataki defeating Cuomo in 94
* In 96, Zogby correctly predicted a relatively slim 8% Clinton/Dole spread when other pollsters were predicting a much bigger Clinton victory (CBS/NYT: 18%, Pew: 13%, ABC: 12%, Harris: 12%, NBC/WSJ: 12%, Gallup: 11%)
i agree that pollsters shouldn't be making big predictions months out -- saying it was kerry's to lose was probably a mistake -- but i think the guy is a businessman above all and the bold prognostication helps drum up clients.
anyway, have fun with your circle-jerk
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