ABC News Poll: Bush Leads Among Early Voters 50-47

ABC News ^

[Sam Cree]

South Dade County.

The polling place was a library midway between a fairly upscale suburban neighborhood where we live and a blue collar, but nice, black neighborhood. Both communities share the library branch.

No intimidation or arguing while we were there, there was a Bush-Cheney table as well as a Kerry-Edwards table, right next to each other, not to mention hordes of folk representing the more minor politcians and the amendments. 2 private security guards had been hired and were patrolling the crowd of a couple hundred.

Everyone was being super polite to each other, although it was clear that feelings were strong.

[Reagan Man]

A poll by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, did show support for Bush among blacks doubling since 2000 to 18%. While that sounds great, you must remember that no other poll data has shown such a dramatic increase of support for Bush among black Americans. Support for Bush among Hispanic's is about where it was in 2000, roughly 35%. Karl Rove told Bush he would need to get 40% in order to secure victory in 2004. And most polls have shown the youth vote split between Bush and Kerry.

Get out the vote efforts among the GOP have been a significant factor here in Colorado during 2000 and more so in 2002. The 96 Hour Campaign to GOTV gave SenAllard a solid win and GovOwens a landslide vicotry in 2002. This year things are looking even better.

However, I don't think polling data of registered voters is anywhere near as important as data of likely voters. Like you I'm not over confident. More cautiously optimistic for a Bush victory. Again, massive Democrat voter turnout is my biggest concern.

[sitetest]

Dear Reagan Man,

Actually, the internals of a few polls have suggested that the black vote has moved a bit, or at the very least, is unenthusiastic for Kerry. I've read in several polls of low support for Kerry, relatively, and relatively higher support for President Bush. Even if the percentages stay about the same, but turnout doesn't increase because of lack of enthusiasm, it would be a net gain for President Bush.

I'm not sure that the 35% number eventually turned out to be quite accurate for Hispanics. I thought there was some concern that it didn't get quite that high.

As for the youth vote, I agree, it's about split. That's what I said, Mr. Bush is holding his own. That is a mildly counterintuitive result, and a favorable result, as well.

Of course likely voter is more important than registered voter, but if you have a dramatic increase in turnout, which is your concern, that increased turnout will come from the remaining pool of registered voters that were not counted as likely voters. If Mr. Bush is doing better with registered voters than with likely voters (and we've seen this in a number of polls), that suggests that Mr. Bush may be helped by a dramatically increased turnout, not hurt. At the very least, I suspect it would be a wash.

The GOTV in Colorado is a microcosm of the country as a whole. It may be a factor why Mr. Bush is doing better with RVs than LVs. It may also be a factor that causes substantially increased turnout, and one that favors the President.

Nonetheless, there is no reason for more than cautious optimism.

But I think turnout may be our friend this year.


sitetest

[Scott from the Left Coast]

BTW...it is my dream to leave this left-wing area and move to Colorado (where they have a good Governor!)

[Hotdog]

Not to early...grab a beer and we'll "cyber click" a good start!

[Reagan Man]

In the 2000 poll taken by the JCPES, black voters were in the mid-teens percentage wise for Bush. On election day Bush received 8% of the black vote.

>>>>I'm not sure that the 35% number eventually turned out to be quite accurate for Hispanics.

All we have to go by is exit polling data and the exit polls I've looked at from 2000 show Bush getting 35% of the Hispanic vote.

>>>>But I think turnout may be our friend this year.

May be. May be not. ;^)

[Reagan Man]

Colorado is a good state to call home and El Paso County in southern Colorado (Colorado Springs) is a solid conservative area and offers a great quality of life for families.

[GeorgeW23225]

Jim:

I got the polling info from an article that was posted here, and it was VERY recent. It was also credible.

I'll do my best to find it for you!!

[kesg]

What concerns me the most is the chance for a massive Democrat turnout on election day. That's what led to my remarks about the release of this 14% early voting numbers. Election experts on both sides have predicted a possible 15%-20% increase in registration this time around. That could mean a 10%+, or over 10 million more people casting a vote then in 2000 and that could spell trouble for Bush. If the 4-million Christian conservatives who stayed home in 2000, decide to come out and vote, it could offset what might be a big plus for John Kerry with new voters.

If the experts are right, most of the new voters will be Republicans, at least in the first 10-15 million-- meaning that the GOP will match or exceed the Democratic performance of four years ago. If this happens, Bush wins by 4-5 points. If the Dems also don't do as well as they did four years ago, Bush wins in a blowout. Only if the GOP does as badly as they did four years ago will the election be close.

The GOP will do better. Much better. They learned their lessons well from four years ago, and millions of new additional dollars and hundreds of thousands of new additional people are involved in the GOTV operation. I frankly question whether the Democrats will do as well as they did four years ago, because they are motivitated this year more by hatred for Bush than any genuine enthusiam for Kerry.

[dormee]

Not reflected yet on RCP. They still have them as a tie.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>If the experts are right, most of the new voters will be Republicans ....

Most experts say the Democrats are doing much better in voter registration efforts. Now that doesn't translate to Democrats having a better get out the vote effort then the GOP. National data being disseminated, shows Democrats registering at a 2-1 ratio over Republicans.

We shall see.

(ps- hatred is a great motivator for some folks)

[roaddog727]

"Is 11:00am too early to start drinking?"

It's noon or later somewhere - tip 'em back and be glad...