Posted on 10/30/2004 4:54:43 PM PDT by Dr. Marten
The Chinese Dragon submerges
By Phar Kim Beng
TOKYO - Over the past decade China has been expanding and enhancing its maritime forces to make them blue-water capable. A major focus is submarines, the Chinese Dragon U-boat. An obvious inference is the use of subs in the narrow, shallow Taiwan Strait in a possible conflict with "renegade" Taiwan, but military analysts say submarines are virtually obsolete and would easily be killed by ships and planes in the strait.
Still, the submarine, that sleek high-tech military platform, is an important symbol of prestige for both China and Taiwan, where the Legislative Yuan is battling over the military budget. Both Beijing and Taiwan are acquiring the vessels, despite what may be the futility of their deployment in a conflict.
A Chinese appraisal of future naval warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines is good, because of their covertness and power. Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time." In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation. Submarines are also our navy's core force."
According to US and Taiwan intelligence estimates, China has about 70 submarines (virtually all conventional), it is building more and buying more from Russia. It has one nuclear submarine, two more being built and eight Kilo-class diesels on order from Russia, to be delivered in 2005 (Russian sources) or 2007 (Chinese sources). David Shambaugh, a leading military analyst at George Washington University, confirms at least 70 submarines, basing his figure on the authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies on military balance for his article in the Washington Quarterly in 2002.
According to Sid Trevethan, an Alaska-based specialist on the Chinese military, Beijing has deployed 57 submarines, including one Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, five Han-class sub, four Kilo-class subs, seven Songs, 18 Mings, and and 22 Soviet-designed Romeos.
Writing in the Spring 2004 issue of the journal International Security, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray affirmed: "Contrary to Western forecasts, China's confidence in imported Kilos has not halted domestic production of the new Song-class diesel submarine. In addition, China's nuclear propulsion program will soon field the first of its second-generation vessels, which will include both attack submarines and strategic missile boats. Finally, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is undertaking an overhaul of the submarine force's weaponry, training, recruitment, and doctrine."
The conservative Washington Times reported in July that to the surprise of US observers, China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering.
Indeed, China is only in the middle of extending the size and range of its submarine fleet, while acquiring modern weapons to transform its fleet from a coastal defense navy to a force capable of sustained open-ocean operations.
These developments have increased the security concerns of Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
After all, even if China took at least two decades to achieve open-ocean operations, Beijing has the option to develop some midget submarines that would tap into underwater communication lines or get up close to a coastline to land its special forces.
"It is always a threat," said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national-security studies at the US Military Academy. In a study on Chinese submarines, co-authored with Lyle Goldstein in the Spring 2004 issue of International Security, he said, "The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear [weapons] capability, there are different threat categories altogether."
Nor is there a limit to what China wants to achieve with its submarine forces. In addition to its one nuclear-powered submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that confine it to the port, China is building two new U-boats.
China's Type-093 sub is believed to be based on the Russian Victor-III class, while the Pentagon believes that its Type-094 attack submarine with a finished hull will be ready for deployment in 2005.
Regardless of type or form, however, most military analysts agree that Chinese submarines could create serious trouble during a regional conflict, either by menacing sea lanes or by forcing US aircraft carriers to stay further away from targets for fear of being torpedoed.
In this context, the US, Taiwan and Japan have begun to take China's submarine forces seriously, especially given Beijing's option to ally its maritime efforts with North Korea, another country with a massive, though archaic, and still deadly submarine fleet mostly inherited from World War II.
A Pentagon report published in May stated that China is changing from a coastal defense force to one employing "active offshore defense".
"This change in operations requires newer, more modern warships and submarines capable of operating at greater distances from China's coast for longer periods," the report said, noting that submarine construction is a top priority.
Indeed, over the last two months, the US Navy has begun conducting tests in the Sea of Japan, as well as similar trials off Hawaii, to test the prototype of a detection device that analyzes submarines' underwater color patterns and detects color gradations too faint for the human eye to detect.
Early versions of the device called the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral, or LASH, have spotted whales and submarines below the surface. Current detection methods used by the US Navy rely on sonar and other methods to "hear" the location of enemy submarines. The LASH system is designed to permit the Navy to "see" the submarines.
Japan is wary of China's efforts and has fully supported such detection exercises, since Chinese submarines have been spotted off the coast of Japan with increased frequency. Indeed, China has even begun to conduct resource surveys in the vicinity of Okino-Torishima, 1,700 kilometers south of Tokyo.
The Chinese survey activities have been undertaken within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in violation of the Law of the Sea, according to the Maritime Safety Agency of Japan. China, however, has insisted that Okino-Torishima should not be considered an island, but a cluster of rocks not qualified for EEZ status, as stipulated by the Law of the Sea.
While these submarines, Tokyo military experts believe, do not have any offensive intention in the immediate or short term, they are nonetheless positioned to increase China's intelligence-gathering activities and to explore the opportunity to block US naval forces in the event of a Taiwan conflict. China has the nasty habit of surfacing its submarine fleets off the coast of the Sea of Japan, as in November 2003, 25 miles offshore.
Taiwan also is taking the Chinese submarine threat seriously. Taiwan is severely disadvantaged, although the Taiwan Strait is narrow and relatively shallow because of the continental shelf, making it difficult for submarines to operate and hide.
According to Shambaugh, the China military analyst, Taiwan's two antiquated World War II-vintage (Guppy class), and two Dutch-built Zvaardis diesel submarines are no match for China's 70 submarines, were a conflict to break out.
Indeed, Taiwan's airborne anti-submarine warfare capability also remains limited, this despite the fact that the shallow Taiwan Strait actually gives Taiwan the military advantage.Taiwan is taking steps to strengthen its submarine forces accordingly. To begin with, the Taiwan navy has signed a submarine-rescue agreement with the US. According to Chinese-language news reports, the agreement states that the US is required to send a deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) to Taiwan in the shortest time possible if any of Taiwan's four submarines become disabled.
That China is improving its submarine and naval capability has clearly made Taiwan wary. In October 2003, the Taiwan parliament was informed that a Chinese destroyer from the North Sea fleet had, for the first time, sailed through the waters east of Taiwan to join exercises in the South China Sea. "This has never happened before," said Defense Minister Tang Yao-Ming. President Chen Shui-bian repeatedly has urged Taiwan to improve its naval combat readiness.
Chen did not go into details about Taiwan's own naval buildup, but its highlights include the purchase of four US second-hand Kidd-class destroyers and eight conventional submarines. US President George W Bush in April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines as part of Washington's most comprehensive arms package to Taipei since 1992.
The multibillion-dollar arms package, including submarines, has generated a fierce debate in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, or parliament.
Although the chances are slim that China and Taiwan would return to the heyday of Cold War submarine warfare, when submarines pursued one another under the sea, the exponential expansion of Chinese submarine forces clearly has not been taken lightly.
Phar Kim Beng is a regular contributor to Asia Times Online. He is currently on a Sumitomo Foundation fellowship, where he is studying the state of Japanese social sciences. He was trained in international relations and strategic studies, first at Cambridge University, later the Fletcher School and Harvard University.
Ping!
We are retired our P3's. Give them to the Taiwanese. Also sell them torpedoes and Mk-60 CAPTOR mines. End of Chinese submarines.
bump
Not to worry. A president Kerrry will sell out Taiwan faster than you can say 'Madame Binh'.
Now I'm no salt...but this seems a bit untrue.
We British would like to do our bit by selling China some submarines ... Canada gave them back ...
Indeed, submarines are still an extremely vital part of naval warfare. But true, if the shooting starts in the strait, somebody's gonna get hit by somebody else's torpedo, and I'm sure the Chinese would have MASSIVE friendly fire problems.
True...I wonder how many of our attack boats are trailing their subs....hmmm.
Shallow water (200 ft) is a disaster for subs. The straits is no place for a sub, even ours. I doubt the Chinese would even put subs in the straits, better they circle around and come in from the east.
They have already taken over our canal and have built the world's largest container
port in the world that also has one of the worlds largest runways...just off our coast in the Bahamas
=== to the surprise of US observers, China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering.
Chicoms on the Kursk ... I guess we'll always just have to wonder.
"We British would like to do our bit by selling China some submarines ... Canada gave them back ..."
You are a twisted individual....I like that!
the Yuan & Kilo class subs mentioned here are D/E subs,not nuclear subs & hence cannot be compared to the Kursk.Russians subs are as good ,if not better than their European counterparts as far as weaponry & quieting is concerned.
Well the Chinese want state of the art weapons & not the obsolete Upholders that Britain has.The moment,the EU lifts it's arms embargo on China(an event that is not far)-The Germans & French & probably the Swedes will rush to sell their D/Es or technology which are generations ahead of the British vessels & unlike earlier,China has the solid cash to buy what it wants.Id suggest the Brits try to sell to the Taiwanese who only have 2 combat worthy subs,but wait,Even Britian is praying to get the arms embargo on Beijing lifted & that means no arms for Taiwan.
Hey ... thanks for the information. I was riffing on the "Russian tech" thing and appreciate the correction.
=== In addition to its one nuclear-powered submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that confine it to the port,
Given the disparities in Russo/Chicom published reports and the tendency of almost all the old "superpowers" to accentuate their weaknesses (our bombers held together with duct tape in Serbia, for example) as suits their purposes -- either to generate public support for funding in a democracy or to Appear weaker than they are in an inscrutable Sun Tzu sort of way -- how much credence do you place on Chicom details of Chicom military spending and holdings such as this?
That's something that's always puzzled me, actually.
Is the assistance we give Taiwan, at a price, worth jack?
=== The moment,the EU lifts it's arms embargo on China(an event that is not far)
Hear hear!!
The purpose of the subs is not to attack Taiwan, but to attack our carriers in deep water. China is preparing to go to war with the USA. It is also why they are getting carriers. Carriers to Taiwan is foolish, land is an unsinkable carrier in that case. Carriers are for forward force projection. Like protection of an invasion fleet.
But since Clintoon fired most of the real Navy Officers and put in perfumed princes in high places, it seems there are no tacticians left.
Umm,Subs have a very important & definite purpose as far as Taiwan is concerned in ensuring a economic & military blockade of the island which will lead to tension with the US in one way or the other.China's 1st carriers will probably not hit the waters till around 2010,by when India,Japan & even Australia all will have 1 or more carriers.China will need atleast 5-6 carriers(& not to forget the accompanying escort & logistical units) to even think of taking on the USN & that is atleast 15 years away.Till then,the PLAN will be trying to browbeat Japan & also try to disprove the notion that the Indian ocean is not India's ocean.
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