The Chinese Dragon submerges

Asia Times ^ | 10.28.04 | Phar Kim Beng

[Dr. Marten]

The Chinese Dragon submerges
By Phar Kim Beng

TOKYO - Over the past decade China has been expanding and enhancing its maritime forces to make them blue-water capable. A major focus is submarines, the Chinese Dragon U-boat. An obvious inference is the use of subs in the narrow, shallow Taiwan Strait in a possible conflict with "renegade" Taiwan, but military analysts say submarines are virtually obsolete and would easily be killed by ships and planes in the strait.

Still, the submarine, that sleek high-tech military platform, is an important symbol of prestige for both China and Taiwan, where the Legislative Yuan is battling over the military budget. Both Beijing and Taiwan are acquiring the vessels, despite what may be the futility of their deployment in a conflict.

A Chinese appraisal of future naval warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines is good, because of their covertness and power. Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time." In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation. Submarines are also our navy's core force."

According to US and Taiwan intelligence estimates, China has about 70 submarines (virtually all conventional), it is building more and buying more from Russia. It has one nuclear submarine, two more being built and eight Kilo-class diesels on order from Russia, to be delivered in 2005 (Russian sources) or 2007 (Chinese sources). David Shambaugh, a leading military analyst at George Washington University, confirms at least 70 submarines, basing his figure on the authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies on military balance for his article in the Washington Quarterly in 2002.

According to Sid Trevethan, an Alaska-based specialist on the Chinese military, Beijing has deployed 57 submarines, including one Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, five Han-class sub, four Kilo-class subs, seven Songs, 18 Mings, and and 22 Soviet-designed Romeos.

Writing in the Spring 2004 issue of the journal International Security, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray affirmed: "Contrary to Western forecasts, China's confidence in imported Kilos has not halted domestic production of the new Song-class diesel submarine. In addition, China's nuclear propulsion program will soon field the first of its second-generation vessels, which will include both attack submarines and strategic missile boats. Finally, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is undertaking an overhaul of the submarine force's weaponry, training, recruitment, and doctrine."

The conservative Washington Times reported in July that to the surprise of US observers, China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering.

Indeed, China is only in the middle of extending the size and range of its submarine fleet, while acquiring modern weapons to transform its fleet from a coastal defense navy to a force capable of sustained open-ocean operations.

These developments have increased the security concerns of Japan, Taiwan and the United States.

After all, even if China took at least two decades to achieve open-ocean operations, Beijing has the option to develop some midget submarines that would tap into underwater communication lines or get up close to a coastline to land its special forces.

"It is always a threat," said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national-security studies at the US Military Academy. In a study on Chinese submarines, co-authored with Lyle Goldstein in the Spring 2004 issue of International Security, he said, "The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear [weapons] capability, there are different threat categories altogether."

Nor is there a limit to what China wants to achieve with its submarine forces. In addition to its one nuclear-powered submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that confine it to the port, China is building two new U-boats.

China's Type-093 sub is believed to be based on the Russian Victor-III class, while the Pentagon believes that its Type-094 attack submarine with a finished hull will be ready for deployment in 2005.

Regardless of type or form, however, most military analysts agree that Chinese submarines could create serious trouble during a regional conflict, either by menacing sea lanes or by forcing US aircraft carriers to stay further away from targets for fear of being torpedoed.

In this context, the US, Taiwan and Japan have begun to take China's submarine forces seriously, especially given Beijing's option to ally its maritime efforts with North Korea, another country with a massive, though archaic, and still deadly submarine fleet mostly inherited from World War II.

A Pentagon report published in May stated that China is changing from a coastal defense force to one employing "active offshore defense".

"This change in operations requires newer, more modern warships and submarines capable of operating at greater distances from China's coast for longer periods," the report said, noting that submarine construction is a top priority.

Indeed, over the last two months, the US Navy has begun conducting tests in the Sea of Japan, as well as similar trials off Hawaii, to test the prototype of a detection device that analyzes submarines' underwater color patterns and detects color gradations too faint for the human eye to detect.

Early versions of the device called the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral, or LASH, have spotted whales and submarines below the surface. Current detection methods used by the US Navy rely on sonar and other methods to "hear" the location of enemy submarines. The LASH system is designed to permit the Navy to "see" the submarines.

Japan is wary of China's efforts and has fully supported such detection exercises, since Chinese submarines have been spotted off the coast of Japan with increased frequency. Indeed, China has even begun to conduct resource surveys in the vicinity of Okino-Torishima, 1,700 kilometers south of Tokyo.

The Chinese survey activities have been undertaken within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in violation of the Law of the Sea, according to the Maritime Safety Agency of Japan. China, however, has insisted that Okino-Torishima should not be considered an island, but a cluster of rocks not qualified for EEZ status, as stipulated by the Law of the Sea.

While these submarines, Tokyo military experts believe, do not have any offensive intention in the immediate or short term, they are nonetheless positioned to increase China's intelligence-gathering activities and to explore the opportunity to block US naval forces in the event of a Taiwan conflict. China has the nasty habit of surfacing its submarine fleets off the coast of the Sea of Japan, as in November 2003, 25 miles offshore.

Taiwan also is taking the Chinese submarine threat seriously. Taiwan is severely disadvantaged, although the Taiwan Strait is narrow and relatively shallow because of the continental shelf, making it difficult for submarines to operate and hide.

According to Shambaugh, the China military analyst, Taiwan's two antiquated World War II-vintage (Guppy class), and two Dutch-built Zvaardis diesel submarines are no match for China's 70 submarines, were a conflict to break out.

Indeed, Taiwan's airborne anti-submarine warfare capability also remains limited, this despite the fact that the shallow Taiwan Strait actually gives Taiwan the military advantage.Taiwan is taking steps to strengthen its submarine forces accordingly. To begin with, the Taiwan navy has signed a submarine-rescue agreement with the US. According to Chinese-language news reports, the agreement states that the US is required to send a deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) to Taiwan in the shortest time possible if any of Taiwan's four submarines become disabled.

That China is improving its submarine and naval capability has clearly made Taiwan wary. In October 2003, the Taiwan parliament was informed that a Chinese destroyer from the North Sea fleet had, for the first time, sailed through the waters east of Taiwan to join exercises in the South China Sea. "This has never happened before," said Defense Minister Tang Yao-Ming. President Chen Shui-bian repeatedly has urged Taiwan to improve its naval combat readiness.

Chen did not go into details about Taiwan's own naval buildup, but its highlights include the purchase of four US second-hand Kidd-class destroyers and eight conventional submarines. US President George W Bush in April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines as part of Washington's most comprehensive arms package to Taipei since 1992.

The multibillion-dollar arms package, including submarines, has generated a fierce debate in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, or parliament.

Although the chances are slim that China and Taiwan would return to the heyday of Cold War submarine warfare, when submarines pursued one another under the sea, the exponential expansion of Chinese submarine forces clearly has not been taken lightly.

Phar Kim Beng is a regular contributor to Asia Times Online. He is currently on a Sumitomo Foundation fellowship, where he is studying the state of Japanese social sciences. He was trained in international relations and strategic studies, first at Cambridge University, later the Fletcher School and Harvard University.

[dennisw]

bttttttttt

[American in Israel]

I pretty much agree with you, but think the Chinese Carriers are going to hit the sea a bit quicker than estimated. I also expect a first strike scenario against the US in a Joint Russian-Chinese effort.

But I also expect martial law in America before that. So If I am on the right track, you have nothing to worry about until you see martial law in the streets of the USA.

Now I think I will take off my tinfoil hat, that thing is hot...

[sukhoi-30mki]

A first strike scenario makes sense if your talking of nukes & a nuke war has no winners.If your talking of conventional weaponry,it would be suicidal as most of the Russian armed forces are underfunded & poorly trained & large chunks of the PLA are obsolete.Not to forget the mutual distrust between the 2-something which is manifest in Russia always preferring India as a a preffered buyer of it's most advanced weaponry(despite China buying more).

PS-Martial Law in the US-wow have you been reading too many tinpot novels of late??your comments used to be so sober!!!!

[bert]

There is no such port in the Bahamas. Shipping in the Bahamas doesn't even compare to our ,inor ports of Charleston or Savannah.

The largest is LA Long Beach.

Here are the others

Top 20 Foreign Ports:
1) Hong Kong 2) Shanghai, China 3) Singapore 4) Kaohsiung, China 5) Rotterdam, Netherlands 6) Pusan, Republic of Korea 7) Bremerhaven, Germany 8) Tokyo, Japan 9) Genoa, Italy 10) Yantian, China 11) Antwerp, Belgium 12) Nagoya, Japan 13) Le Havre, France 14) Hamburg, Germany 15) La Spezia, Italy 16) Felixstowe, United Kingdom 17) Algeciras, Spain 18) Kobe, Japan 19) Yokohama, Japan 20) Laem Chabang, Thailand

[Grzegorz 246]

"Russians subs are as good ,if not better than their European counterparts as far as weaponry & quieting is concerned."

Our "Eagle" (Kilo class) sink almost everything during NATO war games in the Baltic and North Sea. Usually they can't even localize this ship until are virtually hit and sunk.

[Constantine XIII]

"...China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering."

So it's chock full of vacuum tubes and will break a week after you buy it? :P

[sukhoi-30mki]

& the scariest part is that Poland's Kilo is an early gen variant with older electronics & weaponry,unlike the newer variants used by China or India,which have the 'Klub' anti-ship/land attack cruise missile & provision for AIP.Having said that ,I think the Poles have been smart enough to integrate better electronics & sensors(a crucial weakness in Russian D/Es) whatwith the Germans & the french being around.

[snowsislander]

They have already taken over our canal and have built the world's largest container port in the world that also has one of the worlds largest runways...just off our coast in the Bahamas

There is no such port in the Bahamas. Shipping in the Bahamas doesn't even compare to our ,inor ports of Charleston or Savannah.

You are correct that the "world's largest container port" is not in the Bahamas (I believe that honor goes to Hong Kong at 20 million TEUs in 2003), but there is a large one in Freeport, Freeport Container Port (FCP) which is owned by Hutchinson-Whampoa.

FCP's throughput was over 1,000,000 TEUs in 2003, which would put it in throughput squarely among the top 10 container shipping ports in the U.S. (as you point out, it would be a bit behind Charleston and Savannah, but it would be more than either Seattle or Tacoma):

U.S. Waterborne Foreign Trade
Containerized Cargo
Top 30 U.S. Ports
Calendar Year 2003
(Thousand Teu's)
U.S. Ports	Total	Export	Import
Los Angeles	4,664	1,022	3,642
Long Beach	3,091	723	2,368
New York	2,803	838	1,965
Charleston SC	1,250	529	721
Savannah	1,124	529	595
Norfolk	1,093	460	633
Oakland	1,064	548	517
Houston	933	483	450
Tacoma	931	337	594
Seattle	815	329	486
Miami	764	336	428
PT Everglades	423	236	187
Baltimore	307	115	192
New Orleans	237	139	98
Portland OR	210	147	63
Wilmington DE	195	29	166
San Juan	185	39	147
Gulfport, MS	179	71	108
West Palm Beach	140	106	34
Jacksonville	113	72	42
Philadelphia	103	9	95
Boston	93	34	58
Newport News	80	32	48
Chester PA	72	28	44
Wilmington NC	72	28	44
San Diego	53	9	44
Freeport TX	50	23	28
Richmond VA	41	20	21
Honolulu	37	18	19
PT Bienville, MS	25	23	2
Top 30 U.S. Ports	21,148	7,312	13,836
All Other	141	77	64
Total	21,289	7,389	13,899
Top 30% of Total	99.3%	99.0%	99.5%
Source: Port Import/Export Reporting Services (PIERS)

As the original poster pointed out, the Chinese do have a "world's largest" in the Bahamas:

Grand Bahama Airport (GBA)

GBA is the largest privately owned airport in the world. The airport has an 11,000-foot runway capable of handling the world's largest aircraft.

China is interested in the Bahamas, and has established formal diplomatic relation, having recently signed an agreement:

Ocean Shipping Agreement between the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Government of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, signed in Nassau on April 10, 2003, by Vice-Minister of Communications Hong Shanxiang and Foreign Minister Mitchelle on behalf of their respective governments.

There was what I think was a misleading article from NewsMax back in 2000 titled "Chinese Company Completes World's Largest Port in Bahamas", which seems to have at least that fact incorrect. I don't think it is largest in terms of containers (which is what it is designed to be, a transshipment point for containers), nor is it physically anywhere near the size of any of the great ports of the world, nor is it greatest in tonnage. Also, the article makes more than I would out of a few Chinese signatures for visitors at the port.

The point that China is operating so boldly in the Western Hemisphere is bad enough without NewsMax overstating what has happened.

Although I have been lucky enough to see some of the great shipping ports and even participate in a bit of shipping, shipping is not my area at all and I am sure that an enterprising freeper could help shed further light.

[Grzegorz 246]

Yes, this one was built in late 80s. Also Baltic and Northern Sea aren't deep, so generally so big ship should be localized easily. Something was improved in this Polish Kilo, however It wasn't serious modernization. We have soldiers (mostly light infantry) in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Iraq and other strange places, so new APCs, personal equipment etc. are more important now. I would rather prefer new helicopters than sub modernization, however of course It would be also useful. Also Russians would be angry again If we improved Soviet built equipment on our own, but It's nothing new.