Posted on 10/30/2004 4:11:16 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
WORD FROM SENIOR GOP CIRCLES
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” This information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
The big picture is, Bush has the momentum and is playing offense, while Kerry is on the defensive going into Election Day. A key panic button moment for Kerry campaign came on Friday, when the candidate lectured the American people to “wake up.”
The 72-hour Get-Out-The-Vote Operation has been launched. Starting Friday and continuing through Tuesday, 150,000 volunteers in the most competitive states are mobilized and will contact 18 million voters to get the President’s supporters to the polls.
This unprecedented voter turnout operation is built to negate the traditional advantage that Democrats enjoyed on turnout during the 1990s with unions and African-American churches.
The Bush team believes the personal touch is going to make a big difference. The Bush-Cheney ‘04 turnout effort will be driven by volunteers, acting on their personal beliefs and enthusiasm for this President. The Kerry campaign has turned over their grassroots operation to 527 organizations that are relying on paid employees who do not know the voters they are contacting. Will a voter be more persuaded by contact from a neighbor or contact from a stranger who is being paid to do it?
The lack of commentary yesterday about Ohio should not be interpreted as a lack of good news. The Bush team is pleased with the latest poll by the Cleveland Plain Dealer shows the President up by three points (pre-Arnie sample), and volunteers will contact over 1.2 million voters.
Two-thirds of the president’s time is spent campaigning in states that Al Gore won in 2000, and the President leads the polls in Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico — all blue states set to turn red. Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all close, too close for Kerry’s comfort.
Maybe this is spin, and maybe this is happy talk. But if something is going wrong - like some red state looks like it’s going to flip - then I suspect the big cheeses would have an incentive to warn the middle cheeses and prepare them for the disappointment. Something along the lines of “Yes New Hampshire looks shaky, but we can afford to lose it, it’s only four electoral votes.” [That’s my speculation on the Granite State, not anything I’ve heard from this GOP insider.]
Quite a few Kerry Spot readers are e-mailing on a Saturday, questioning the Fox poll showing Bush’s lead shrinking on Friday night, post-Osama tape. Here’s what Jay Cost has to say about it:
Fox released its new poll about 45 minutes ago. Note that the poll uses the last day sample of the previous poll. This indicates that Fox is going to start doing a rolling average. As is typical of media organizations who do not know any better, they have junked the previous day's poll. This is quite stupid. If you average the two results out, taking in all the data collected in the four days thus far, Bush is ahead 49.2% to 45% with a margin of error of less than 3%. Apparently, Bush did not poll well in Friday's Fox sample. The Washington Post's polling director was on Fox just now and he said Kerry did very well on Friday, too. Look for that poll's margins to fall. Try not to let this upset you. They only sample about 200-300 people in any given day. Kerry had a blip last weekend in the WaPo tracking poll, too. It was just a blip. I would note that the evidence from last electiondoes not indicate that WaPo was pro-Gore on the weekends. This year, though, they are 3 for 3 pro-Kerry on the weekends, if the WaPo does the same now.
[Posted 10/30 06:56 PM]
what was the Kerry 'Wake up' AMerica moment?
You might be surprised. I got word from a footsoldier in Cleveland: her phone bank callers said the U's are breaking 6:1 up there in Bush's favor. If they're going 6:1 ANYWHERE NEAR the Great Lakes, in southern OH it's gonna be a tsunami.
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=612343§ion=news
Kerry urged Americans to wake up and choose a new start on the economy and Iraq, courted the Jewish vote in Florida with a few words of Hebrew and appealed to Hispanics with a lengthy stretch of Spanish.
>>>BTW.. Act like we are 5 points down and make that turnout COUNT!!!
With the defeat of Gov Rendell's effort to toss out the military vote, the final outcome of Pennsylvania may not come until Nov 10.
At this point, this is the cutoff for overseas (military) vote to come in, provided they are posted on Nov 2.
[There is an additional push for an extension]
This major gaffe by Rendell may cost Pennsylvania votes that might have gone to Kerry but will swing to Bush just over the anger in the heavy handed decision by Gov Rendell to cut off the Military vote.
Bush is back up to 56 on trade sports. It sounds like unless a very late surprise comes in that the money is on him.
"he lectured the American people to wake up"
Sounds of a desparate man sinking into the black hole of oblivion
If all those were in danger Cheney wouldn't have detoured out to Hawaii even for a couple hours.
Only PA and NJ will go to Kerry, and neither of those is certain. If the numbers I'm hearing about "undecideds" breaking strongly for Bush here in OH are confirmed elsewhere, it will be a clean sweep of the midwest, sans the socialist state of ILLINOIS.
If you can sign up, still do so.
Let's make it more than 150,000.
pass that on to the corner.....good info.
WOW! Am originally from Ohio and when you get any good news out of Cleveland for Republicans, then you can bet the remainder of the State is going for Bush big time. I saw where Pres Bush was way up in Toledo so it looks like the western part of the State, except Dayton :(, will more then offset Cleveland once again! YEA!!!
Did. Have other, good, info on other B-ground states that I'm not at liberty to share. If the Freepers who gave this to me want it out there, they will put it out. Right now, stealth is the name of the game in some cases. The Dems ain't gonna know what hit them.
Skerry is in huge trouble. We aren't lead to feel that due to the media conveying the message of a close election, and it could be, but I think we have this in the bag.
TURN OUT TURN OUT TURN OUT
The point of that map is even if we lost all those states.....and we won't, we would STILL win.
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