Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (American Research Group Poll)

American Research Group ^ | 10/30

[ambrose]

	American Research Group, Inc.

October 30, 2004

Kerry and Bush Remain Tied

John Kerry and George W. Bush

remain tied in the race for president among both Americans

registered to vote

and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from

the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters and likely voters,

49% say they would vote

for Kerry and 48% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph

Nader is added to the ballot, 48% of registered voters and likely voters say

they

would vote for Kerry, 48% say they would vote for Bush, and 1% say they would vote for Nader.

The results presented here are based on 1,500 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide

random sample of registered voters. Of the total sample of

1,500 registered voters, 1,258 are likely voters on Tuesday.

The interviews were completed October 28 through 30, 2004.

The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of registered voters is

plus or minus 2.5 percentage

points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical

margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or

minus 2.8 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

October 30	Bush	Kerry	Undecided
All voters	48%	49%	3%
Likely voters	48%	49%	3%
All voters:
Republicans (35%)	91%	6%	3%
Democrats (40%)	11%	87%	2%
Independents (25%)	45%	48%	7%
Oct 4 2004	45%	48%	7%
Sep 2004	46%	48%	6%
Aug 2004	46%	49%	5%
Jul 2004	45%	49%	6%
Jun 2004	46%	48%	6%
May 2004	44%	47%	9%
Apr 2004	44%	50%	6%
Mar 2004	43%	50%	7%
Feb 2004	46%	48%	6%
Jan 2004	46%	47%	7%

With Nader in the race, Kerry and Bush are tied at 48% each, with Nader is at 1% among both registered voters and likely voters.

October 30	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Undecided
All voters	48%	48%	1%	3%
Likely voters	48%	48%	1%	3%
All voters:
Republicans (35%)	91%	6%	0%	3%
Democrats (40%)	11%	86%	1%	2%
Independents (25%)	45%	47%	3%	5%
Oct 4 2004	44%	47%	2%	7%
Sep 2004	45%	46%	3%	6%
Aug 2004	45%	49%	2%	4%
Jul 2004	44%	47%	3%	6%
Jun 2004	45%	46%	3%	6%
May 2004	44%	45%	4%	7%
Apr 2004	43%	48%	2%	7%
Mar 2004	42%	48%	2%	8%

 

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About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting national surveys of consumers since 1985.

Sample Size: 1,500 completed telephone interviews among a random sample

of registered voters living in telephone households in the continental United States,

of the total sample of registered voters, 1,258 are likely voters.

Sample

Dates: October 28-30, 2004

Margins

of Error: ± 2.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions

where opinion is evenly split for the total sample of registered voters and ± 2.8 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split for the sample of likely voters.

Question Wording:

If the election for president and vice president were being

held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush

for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and John Kerry for President

and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry,

or someone else? (names rotated)

What if the election for president and vice president were being

held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush

for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, John Kerry for President

and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader for President and

Peter Camejo for Vice President, the independents, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, Nader,

or someone else? (names rotated)

ARG home

[atomicpossum]

ARG = Absolutely Real Garbage.

[ambrose]

I think these are Bush's best numbers in an ARG poll all year long, believe it or not.

They sampled 40% Democrats, 35% Republicans.

[montereyp1]

Let's see 35% Repubs. 40% Dem and this poll has NEVER shown a Bush lead?

Not too worried about this one.

[Heff]

Ok...I am getting up early to vote on Tuesday then I am going to slip into a coma and wake up after the smoke clears. This is like a bad elevator ride...up and down!

[Galtoid]

What a myth. It has never really been tied from the beginning and in about 55 hours, we'll know that the margin has always been between 6 and 8.

[Galtoid]

What a myth. It has never really been tied from the beginning and in about 55 hours, we'll know that the margin has always been between 6 and 8.

[flashbunny]

Great news! This means bush is up 5 or 6 points!

[montereyp1]

THis polls shows a Bush surge. Look at the internals. Bush has NEVER done this well and it's 35-40% in facor od Dems!

THIS IS GOOD NEWS!

[KellyAdmirer]

If I am reading this right, this is the first time that the President has been tied with Kerry in this poll. It also is his best personal poll number, never having polled above 46% previously. All things considered, not a bad poll, considering where it is from.

[okstate]

Another AARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGH! Poll?

[Warlord]

ARG is weighted Dem + 5 (based on the 2000 turnout, no doubt). This is important because ARG, I believe, uses party affiliation as a demographic parameter. I think that the actual turnout will be closer to a rough parity, which suggests President Bush may have an advantage (Bush keeping more Rs than Kerry is keeping Ds). This poll is good news, in that President Bush has done as well in this round as he has all year against an aggressively pro-Dem turnout assumption.

[rocklobster11]

Didn't they release one earlier in the week showing Kerry up 49-46? They don't show it in these charts, perhaps because their own poll shows Kerry losing support

[airborne]

Let's take a poll. How many Freepers are sick of polls?
Bush Lead Widens Among Likely Voters -- Newsweek [Large lead published by Newsweek and Reuters?

Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

CT-4 Poll: Shays (R) 47, Farrell (D) 42

Just released FoxNews Poll Bush: 47, Kerry 45 (likely voters)

ABC Poll: Bush-Kerry Race Closing Close (ABC suggests little change in last night's numbers)

Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (American Research Group Poll)

[rocklobster11]

Never mind. Maybe that was a state poll.

[Apercu]

Sampling skewed toward Dems.Bovine Scatology.

[ProudVet77]

Good observation. ARG is garbage, and even with that, we're tied. Compare that to the Oct 4th poll the headline should read "Bush surging".

[rwfromkansas]

Heck of a lot better than their early Oct. poll.

[kesg]

This poll is overly infested with Rats. If you even out the Republican and Democrat representation, I get Bush 49.5%, Kerry 46.8%, with the rest undecided in this always consistently left-leaning poll.

[ambrose]

I think this poll might reflect the scenario Dems fantasize about and our worst case scenario.... hoards of "new" voters flood the polls, stuff the ballot boxes, Republicans are well outnumbered...

net result? still a tie race.


looking good.