Posted on 10/30/2004 12:10:32 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last ten Newsweek/PSRAI presidential preference polls, including the October 27-29, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Newsweek/PSRAI poll via PRnewswire links. Also included is a re-weighting of the Newsweek/PSRAI polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column, it is just to show what would happen if the Newsweek internals were "Zogby-fied".
(Excerpt) Read more at prnewswire.com ...
The last Newsweek poll of October 21-22, 2004 had a tie [46% Bush, 46% Kerry, 1% Nader] with about the same number of Republicans and Democrats in the poll sample [35.4% Republicans, 35.2% Democrats, 29.5% Independents]. The big reason for the tie was the fact that the Independents favored Kerry over Bush by 52% to 38%. Now, this newly published Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 has about 2 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the poll sample [34% Republican, 36.2% Democrat, 29.8% Independents] which was not enough to offset the big swing to Bush among Independents [47% Bush, 38% Kerry, 3% Nader] which has given Bush his 4% point lead over Kerry. It is amazing that such a large switch took place so quickly - either the Independents are breaking for Bush, or Newsweek is rushing to get their 'internals' and likely voter results, ahem, in-line with the other major national polls...
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
Source: Newsweek poll, October 27-29, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, October 21-22, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, October 14-15, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, September 30 - October 2, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, September 9-10, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, September 2-3, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, July 29-30, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, July 8-9, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, May 13-14, 2004
Source: Newsweek poll, March 18-19, 2004
It will be interesting to compare these internals with other polls conducted in similar time periods. Look below at the Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 of 1,005 'Registered' voters as compared to the Washington Post tracking poll of October 25-28, 2004 of 2,047 'Likely' voters and the Fox News poll of October 27-28, 2004 of 1,200 'Likely' voters. The tables above show quite a swing in the preference of the Independents from the previous Newsweek poll of October 21-22, 2004 when it was [38% Bush, 52% Kerry, 4% Nader] to the Independents in the current Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 of [47% Bush, 38% Kerry, 3% Nader]. The tables below from Fox News and the Washington Post tracking polls over overlapping polling dates show that the Newsweek internals have fallen into line with the other two major polls shown.
Bottom line from the latest Newsweek polling numbers, which agree with the internals of other major polling organizations: The Independents are just beginning to break for Bush...
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
Newsweek analysis poll ping...
dvwjr
My head's spinning, that's helpful? LOL
It is colorful though. No offense intended BTW.
No kidding, my eyes hurt.........
"My head's spinning, that's helpful? LOL"
Those interested in the partisan weighting should note that the RV sample was Dem +2. Moreover, the partisan support numbers square with various narratives floating about this week (e.g. soft support at the margins of Dem groups).
Good work! Thanks for the ping!
Heck, my stomach and body feel like I just got off a wiggly roller coaster! UP, DOWN, UP DOWN...ughhhh enough to give anyone a tsunami headache!
The last Newsweek poll of October 21-22, 2004 had a tie [46% Bush, 46% Kerry, 1% Nader] with about the same number of Republicans and Democrats in the poll sample [35.4% Republicans, 35.2% Democrats, 29.5% Independents]. The big reason for the tie was the fact that the Independents favored Kerry over Bush by 52% to 38%. Now, this newly published Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 has about 2 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the poll sample [34% Republican, 36.2% Democrat, 29.8% Independents] which was not enough to offset the big swing to Bush among Independents [47% Bush, 38% Kerry, 3% Nader] which has given Bush his 4% point lead over Kerry. It is amazing that such a large switch took place so quickly - either the Independents are breaking for Bush, or Newsweek is rushing to get their 'internals' and likely voter results, ahem, in-line with the other major national polls...
Upshot: more Dems were sampled this time, but Independents have reversed themselves and are breaking for Bush, giving him the lead.
It's an impressive swing. From Bush down 14 to up 9 points with Independents.
Newsweek was NOT expecting these numbers.
I see what your saying, but don't quite understand. In the Newsweek poll in the past 2 weeks from 10/23 to 10/29 there was a 25 point swing in the independent vote (non adjusted), but only a 4 point swing in the total vote. With a little less than a third of the sample independent, shouldn't we see more of a swing? Like a 8-10 point shift?
Oh... wait I just looked at it again... What your saying is this can occur because a number of Independant voters switched from Kerry to being undecided - a 6 point increase in the undecdied voters? 6+4 then = 10 which is the what we predicted before. Is this right? wow. very cool! This has got to have the Kerry camp sh!tting themselves. Especially with this Osama video and the media coverup of the Kerry endorsment these trends should only accelerate.
thanks for posting this. very interesting.
Looking at ALL of the polls today, one would have to surmise that Fox is allowing their weekend liberal shift to spin the latest poll to heighten viewer levels. I hate ALL of the MSM... every last damn one of them!
LLS
I was curious as to why Newsweek's previous polls had such a large margin of Independents who favored Kerry over Bush as compared to other national polls. Looks as if their sampling finally caught up to other trend seen by other major polls.
I was not expecting such a reversal by Newsweek, but time has just plain run-out. Can't wait until Monday, so they dropped the hammer today.
Kerry's only hope appears to be stitching together a slight Electoral College victory. The trend is towards Bush, but the unknown factor of turnout will only be known on Tuesday.
dvwjr
The so called Independent split has been interesting to watch. This is only the second time that Bush has had a lead in the Newsweek poll among Independents. He's up 9 from the previous week, Kerry is down 14, after two week of leading with over 50%.
Bottom line, never trust a Newsweek poll.
Very surprising.
Bush Leads by 6 Points in Poll After Bin Laden Tape (Update1)
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush leads Senator John Kerry by 6 percentage points among likely voters, compared with a 2-point advantage last week, a Newsweek magazine poll said.
Fifty percent of likely voters favor Bush, compared with 44 percent for Kerry, within the Oct. 27-29 poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, Newsweek said. Last week, Bush drew 48 percent and Kerry 46 percent, the magazine said. The race is tighter among the 1,005 registered voters interviewed, with 48 percent backing Bush and 44 percent supporting Kerry.
Newsweek started its third night of polling after Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks, appeared in a videotape warning Americans that another terrorist strike on the U.S. is possible.
``Whenever the subject of the campaign has turned to terrorism, it has benefited Bush,'' Newsweek said on its Web site. ``In every poll since the campaign began, voters have said they trust Bush more than Kerry to handle the challenges of terrorism and homeland security -- usually by a 15-to-20-point margin.''
Kerry, 60, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, says Bush, 58, mishandled the hunt for bin Laden as well as the war in Iraq, and he would enlist more U.S. allies to wage a ``smarter'' battle against terrorism.
Zogby Survey
Kerry received 47 percent support and Bush 46 percent backing in a nationwide survey by Reuters/Zogby with four days to go before the Nov. 2 election. Three percent were undecided in the Oct. 27-29 tracking poll of 1,209 likely voters, which had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent each in an Oct. 26-28 Zogby survey.
Independent Ralph Nader drew 1.8 percent support in Zogby's poll, up from 1.4 percent Oct. 26-28. Nader is supported by 1 percent of likely voters in the Newsweek poll.
Bush led Kerry by 50 percent to 47 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. The Oct. 25-28 telephone survey had a 2 percentage-point error margin. The 2,047 respondents said they were registered to vote, intended to participate in the election and cast ballots in past elections.
The Zogby and Washington Post tracking polls interview a portion of the sample every day, and the results are an average of three days of polling. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.
Job-Approval Rating
A 56 percent majority in the Newsweek poll said they're dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and 39 percent said their satisfied. Bush's job-approval rating was 46 percent, compared with 47 percent who disapproved of his performance. Registered voters in Newsweek's poll said they trust Bush over Kerry 56 percent to 37 percent to combat terrorism.
The Zogby poll found Bush and Kerry statistically tied in four states with a total of 85 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. The electoral vote, apportioned among the states based on congressional representation, determines the election result.
Kerry had 47 percent support and the president 45 percent in Florida, Zogby reported. Florida decided the 2000 election for Bush after the U.S. Supreme Court halted a ballot recount. In Pennsylvania, Kerry had 47 percent to 44 percent for Bush. In Ohio, the president had 46 percent support, compared with 45 percent for Kerry, the poll found. Bush had 48 percent support and Kerry 46 percent in Michigan, Zogby said.
Shift in Michigan
Among the 10 states tracked by Zogby, Michigan showed the biggest swing in the last week; an Oct 21-24 poll showed Kerry ahead by 10 percentage points. Michigan, with 17 electoral votes, has backed the Democratic ticket in the past three presidential elections. Bush campaigned in the state Oct. 27-28 and today.
Zogby International, based in Utica, New York, surveyed about 600 likely voters in each state; each poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
In two states -- Nevada and New Mexico, each with 5 electoral votes -- Bush held leads outside the margins of error, Zogby found. In Nevada, Bush led Kerry by 54 percent to 44 percent; in New Mexico, Bush was ahead 51 percent to 42 percent.
In two states with 10 votes each, Kerry maintains leads over the president: 50 percent to Bush's 45 percent in Wisconsin and 49 percent to 43 percent in Minnesota.
A review of polls shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Arkansas, with 174 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York and Maine, with 170 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 194 electoral votes, including Florida and Pennsylvania, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Glenn Hall in Washington at ghall@bloomberg.net.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=adO21WzG6dBo&refer=us
Good work.
I noticed that their is some fluctuation between party percentages. I averaged out all ten of the Newsweek Polls and came up with this average weighting:
2004 Newsweek Poll Avg:
(R)34.41%
(D)35.16%
(I)30.43%
2000 Election:
(R)34.37%
(D)38.86%
(I)26.77
Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three categories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' category for comparison purposes.
I lump all 'other' voter catagories into 'Independents'. This may account for some differences from certain polls who break out 'others' but never publish them, leading to R+D+I ~= 96%. I take the tack that if you are not willing to be identified as a Republican or Democrat; if you are a left-handed libertarian lesbian for whale voting rights, you are an Independent...
dvwjr
Good analysis, thanks for the update. I read every one of your Newsweek poll update posts, they provide an excellent source of the internals trend.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.