Zogby applies "special sauce" in S.D. Sen. Race [He admits it!]

Rapid City Journal ^ | 10/30/04 | Bill Harlan

[Timeout]

Poll: Republicans inch ahead

By Bill Harlan, Journal Staff Writer

Republicans John Thune and Larry Diedrich have overcome double-digit deficits to draw ahead of their Democratic rivals, Sen. Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth, according to an independent poll.

The Republicans' leads were about 3 percentage points - within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error - and pollster John Zogby of Zogby International warned that the Senate and House races in South Dakota were too close to call. "We've got two competitive races here," he said.

Libertarian House candidate Terry Begay polled less than 1 percent.

The Rapid City Journal, KOTA-TV and other state media outlets commissioned the poll, which Zogby conducted Monday and Tuesday. Pollsters interviewed 800 likely voters.

Thune led Daschle 48.5 percent to 45.5 percent in the Senate race, Zogby said. Diedrich led Herseth 48.3 percent to 45.5 percent.

"It's all in the hands of independent voters," Zogby said, noting the high number of undecided voters who are not members of a political party.

Earlier this year, Daschle and Herseth had double-digit leads.

Zogby's results also would be a huge turnaround from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted last week for the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO-TV, which showed Daschle with a two-point lead and Herseth with a four-point lead.

The two polls used different methods to determine the ratio of Democratic to Republican likely voters. Daschle campaign spokesman Dan Pfeiffer called Zogby's method "questionable."

Pfeiffer said a Daschle poll put the Democrat up 50 percent to 48 percent.

Thune campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams, who also has been critical of Zogby polls, said he believed the results confirmed "momentum" for Thune, but he said, "This race goes down to the wire, and John Thune will campaign incessantly until 7 p.m. Tuesday." A Republican Party poll put Thune ahead by 4 percentage points.

Diedrich said Wednesday night the poll confirmed his own momentum. "It's following the trend we're seeing," he said. "It's a matter of getting to know me."

Herseth spokesman Russ Levsen, like Pfeiffer, said Zogby had underestimated Democratic likely voters. "Those numbers are far different from everything we've seen, but we've always thought this would be a close race," he said. "We'll continue to run a positive race and talk about Stephanie's independent record in Congress."

Poll results can differ significantly depending on how pollsters define "likely voters." Zogby's initial report, for example, showed Thune leading Daschle by 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent, a result Pfeiffer called "absurd," adding, "No sane person in America believes this is a six-point race."

Diedrich led Herseth 48.8 percent to 44.5 percent in those first results, and Zogby said that gave even him pause.

Zogby said he arrived at those results using the ratio of Republicans to Democrats in exit polls conducted during the 2000 presidential election. Those results were 49 percent Republican and 33 percent Democrats.

Democratic turnout could have been low in that election for a number of reasons. Thune overwhelmed his Democratic opponent for the House that year, there was no Senate race and there was no significant Democratic get-out-the-vote effort.

Current voter registration in South Dakota breaks down to 47.5 percent Republican, 38.1 percent Democrat. Most of the rest are independents. The Libertarian and Constitution parties each have less than 1 percent.

On Wednesday, after reporters pointed out the discrepancy between registered voters and Zogby's estimate of "likely voters," he closed the [political party] gap to 47 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. When he refigured the results, he came up with three-point advantages for both Republicans. "We decided to look at it anew," he said. He called the change "one I could easily defend."

Pfeiffer was not convinced. "No one with any knowledge of South Dakota would believe the assumptions made by Zogby."

Pfeiffer also pointed out that in the 2002 election, which Thune lost by less than 1 percent to Democrat Tim Johnson, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by only 10.5 percent.

Zogby, who is based in Utica, N.Y., said he stood by his adjusted poll results, but he also cautioned he was not predicting the outcome of either race. "Six days from the election? God no!"

[Salvation]

Seemingly titlted!

[stockpirate]

Zogby was one of two pollers that was close in the 2000 election. Once does not make for a record. IMHO

[OldFriend]

Zogby is the handmaiden of the left.

[cookcounty]

"Zogby adjusts according to his mood"

No, he selects a few races (not too many, that would spoil the sauce!) to manipulate. In a small population state like SD, he needs to panic Dems into opening their wallets for Daschle, and that's what he's up to.

[MEG33]

Good thinking!

[reformedliberal]

Recorded smears BY GOPers?

Here in Western WI, the automated smears are all D.

[coffeebreak]

Zogby is normally right on in Presidential years. Don't discount his numbers. 2000 - Gore 48, Bush 46, Nader 5

Does that look right to you?

Zogby was the only polster to say that Gore would win the popular vote in 2000; he did. All the others had Bush ahead by 3-5 points. In 1996 Zogby was only off by one tenth of a point in the Dole/Clinton race. Today he has Kerry up by one.

[truecons]

Zogby Research Indicates Earth Is Flat

 

Shocking the scientific community, at a press conference today political pollster John Zogby presented data he says conclusively shows that the earth is, indeed, flat.

 

"We've known this all along", said Zogby, under fire recently for his questionable polling procedures that some say "cook the books" to produce desired results. "I mean, for crying out loud, look around!"

 

When pressed for details, Zogby presented a chart with numbers on it, leading journalists present to look at each other, give that "I didn't know that but it makes sense" look, and nod approvingly.

 

Zogby then went on to describe their methodology, which involved two rocks and a long string. "We stretched the string between two towers a mile apart and let about 100 feet dangle down. Then we tied a rock to each end of the string. We measured the angles between the horizontal and vertical parts of the string and got 7.16x10-3 degrees from 90, which would indicate that the earth was a circle with a radius of approximately 4000 miles."

 

"Well, we immediately know that was wrong. I mean, that's such a small angle we figured we must have measured wrong. So we corrected based on the exit polling we did during the 2000 election in South Dakota which was 49% Republican and 33% Democrat. We took that ratio, which is 1.48, adjusted it with a correction factor code named "Special Sauce", and came up with exactly 7.16x10-3! Subtracted from our original value, it showed an exact 90 degree angle, consistent with our previous certainty that the earth is, indeed, flat."

 

"I assure you, after about an hour of mutual back-patting, we went out and had one honkin' pizza party...sausage, canadian bacon...the works!"

 

When asked to explain how they even began to pursue this line of research, Zogby gave a surprising answer. "It all began back in 2000 when we were doing our exit polling. We met a wonderful young man who was with the office of Senator Tom Daschle. We got talking over a few beers, and one of our researchers let it slip that he wasn't all that sure about this round earth thing. Then this young man, I think his name was Pfeiffer...you know, like Michelle...wwwrrrooowwww!...he said something that I think will end up changing our view of the world forever. He says, 'You know...no sane person in America believes the Earth is round'."

 

"And the rest is history. Oh, and by the way, our 2000 polling data also proves that Nebraska is actually slightly concave...go figure".

 

 

John Zogby,
demonstrating how his proctologist
found that "correction factor"

[Hermann the Cherusker]

No, most pollsters had the race even, or +/-1-2 either way.

Harris called it right with a 48-48 tie. Zogby was off by 2 in favor of the man who lost.

[Cableguy]

Zogby admits to fudging his numbers!

[ClintonBeGone]

Does that look right to you?

And what percent of the vote did Gore get?

[Dales]

The adjusting the numbers does not bother me nearly as much as what triggered him to adjust the numbers.

1) Pressure from the left, and

2) Seeing the numbers showing Diedrich up by 4... in a poll with a 3.5 MoE... when he had lost previously to Herseth by just 1%. He said it gave him great pause. Diedrich up 4 is within the MoE of the final result.

I did not think my estimation of Zogby could get lower. It just did.

[Cableguy]

Probably the same thing happened in CO, but in the opposite direction. Every
poll has Bush up except for Zogby. The latest local poll had Bush up by 9
yesterday. Zogby finally showed a 1 point Bush lead yesterday also. You also
need to take in account that Kerry withdrew all his ads, and cancelled a
pre-planned visit. So everyone agrees (even Kerry) that Bush has a
commanding lead in CO except Zogby.

Similar thing happened in 2000, when Zogby abruptly showed a Gore lead after
the DUI charge surfaced. I can only guess that he played around with his
party ID ratio to reflect what he thought was going to happen, not what his
results actually showed.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

What percent did Bush get? Not 46%.

[ClintonBeGone]

Thank you.