Zogby applies "special sauce" in S.D. Sen. Race [He admits it!]

Republicans John Thune and Larry Diedrich have overcome double-digit deficits to draw ahead of their Democratic rivals, Sen. Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth, according to an independent poll.

The Republicans' leads were about 3 percentage points - within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error - and pollster John Zogby of Zogby International warned that the Senate and House races in South Dakota were too close to call. "We've got two competitive races here," he said.

The Rapid City Journal, KOTA-TV and other state media outlets commissioned the poll, which Zogby conducted Monday and Tuesday. Pollsters interviewed 800 likely voters.

Thune led Daschle 48.5 percent to 45.5 percent in the Senate race, Zogby said. Diedrich led Herseth 48.3 percent to 45.5 percent.

"It's all in the hands of independent voters," Zogby said, noting the high number of undecided voters who are not members of a political party.

Zogby's results also would be a huge turnaround from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted last week for the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO-TV, which showed Daschle with a two-point lead and Herseth with a four-point lead.

The two polls used different methods to determine the ratio of Democratic to Republican likely voters. Daschle campaign spokesman Dan Pfeiffer called Zogby's method "questionable."

Thune campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams, who also has been critical of Zogby polls, said he believed the results confirmed "momentum" for Thune, but he said, "This race goes down to the wire, and John Thune will campaign incessantly until 7 p.m. Tuesday." A Republican Party poll put Thune ahead by 4 percentage points.

Diedrich said Wednesday night the poll confirmed his own momentum. "It's following the trend we're seeing," he said. "It's a matter of getting to know me."

Herseth spokesman Russ Levsen, like Pfeiffer, said Zogby had underestimated Democratic likely voters. "Those numbers are far different from everything we've seen, but we've always thought this would be a close race," he said. "We'll continue to run a positive race and talk about Stephanie's independent record in Congress."

Poll results can differ significantly depending on how pollsters define "likely voters." Zogby's initial report, for example, showed Thune leading Daschle by 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent, a result Pfeiffer called "absurd," adding, "No sane person in America believes this is a six-point race."

Diedrich led Herseth 48.8 percent to 44.5 percent in those first results, and Zogby said that gave even him pause.

Zogby said he arrived at those results using the ratio of Republicans to Democrats in exit polls conducted during the 2000 presidential election. Those results were 49 percent Republican and 33 percent Democrats.

Democratic turnout could have been low in that election for a number of reasons. Thune overwhelmed his Democratic opponent for the House that year, there was no Senate race and there was no significant Democratic get-out-the-vote effort.

Current voter registration in South Dakota breaks down to 47.5 percent Republican, 38.1 percent Democrat. Most of the rest are independents. The Libertarian and Constitution parties each have less than 1 percent.

On Wednesday, after reporters pointed out the discrepancy between registered voters and Zogby's estimate of "likely voters," he closed the [political party] gap to 47 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. When he refigured the results, he came up with three-point advantages for both Republicans. "We decided to look at it anew," he said. He called the change "one I could easily defend."

Pfeiffer was not convinced. "No one with any knowledge of South Dakota would believe the assumptions made by Zogby."

Pfeiffer also pointed out that in the 2002 election, which Thune lost by less than 1 percent to Democrat Tim Johnson, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by only 10.5 percent.

Zogby, who is based in Utica, N.Y., said he stood by his adjusted poll results, but he also cautioned he was not predicting the outcome of either race. "Six days from the election? God no!"

VVAW, FBI files and John Kerry, What I have found

1. “On September 30, 1971, Robert Malone, Chief of Police, University of Nevada, advised Kerry’s speech at the University was sponsored by the Associated Students of the University of Nevada, and that he was paid $1,200.00, including expenses for his appearance.” Kerry is paid for VVAW speeches, pg 25

2. VVAW pickets restaurant because owner refuses to serve long haired, barefoot and dirty veterans in his place of business. It is also noted that the organization encourages the use of narcotics. VVAW pickets restaurant, pg 28-29

3. VVAW distributes literature at an event that is used to collect intelligence on military tactics and methods in Vietnam. Considering the fact that the VVAW has meetings with the North Vietnam Communists and VVAW members travel to Moscow and Hanoi, this is a very serious matter. VVAW collects military intelligence concerning US tactics and methods in Vietnam War. Pg. 51-57

4. Joseph Urgo, Second Vice-President of VVAW is in North Vietnam August 13, 1971. VP of VVAW in North Vietnam, pg. 92

5. VVAW attorney was in North Vietnam on November 22,1970 and returned with letters from US POW’s. VVAW went to NV, pg. 96

6. Throughout this section of the FBI documents is a constant link between the VVAW’s activities and Communist groups or Communist front groups in the USA. Communist groups, pg. 86

7. VVAW shows a Communist propaganda film “entitled, ‘Evil Hour’, which depicted the effects of United States military actions on children in Vietnam..” Propaganda movie, pg. 101

8. Randy Floyd, President of the VVAW at the University of Texas. to speak in Oslo Norway concerning US war crimes in Vietnam. War crimes Oslo, Norway, pg. 115-116

9. FBI document reveals that, “all members of the VVAW who had traveled to Finland, Moscow, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), England…..” One of the VVAW members that traveled to Moscow had pictures attached to their mid-section of alleged atrocities in Indo-China, pg. 117-118

10. Speakers at a VVAW rally include Socialist/Communists advocating anti American propaganda. Communist groups speakers, pg. 132-139

11. Again the VVAW is using a Communist front organization of the Communist Party USA, in a rally, the YWLL. Communist groups, pg. 142

12. In reading the FBI files concerning John F. Kerry and the VVAW I find several instances where the VVAW is receiving money, directions, and non-monetary support from Communist Organizations in the USA, Europe, Soviet Union, France and Southeast Asia, as well as other countries. So, John Kerry worked for Communist Organizations attempting to overthrow the Government of the United States of America.

13. FBI Documents indicate that while John Kerry was with the VVAW, VVAW leaders met with KGB agents in the US. “VVAW collusion with foreign spies? “The Diplomatic List published by U.S. Department of State, in 1971 listed Grigoriy Sergeyvich Milhaylovskiy as an assistant Military Attache, Embassy of the U.S.S.R., Washington, D.C.”

14. Vietnam Veterans Against the War, John Kerry, FBI files Section 8 (Oct-Nov 1971)

15. Do the FBI Files concerning the VVAW (Kerry’s antiwar group) indicate a plot to assassinate Pres. Nixon?

16. John Kerry caused a fracture in VVAW for his own selfish goals (FBI Files reveal)

17. Kerry, Watergate: DNC Links Caused Break-in? (Kerry lied! Still with the VVAW after February 1972)

18. Lets watch the film of John Kerry and VVAW members throwing combat medals over the fence

19. Treat as Yellow – John Kerry’s VVAW coordinating with the North Vietnam Communist Government when US forces are under attack

20. VVAW leader meets with Communists to discuss tactics in the US antiwar movement. Kerry’s group!

21. Prior to “Dewey Canyon III” Mike Thelan East Coast Coordinator for the VVAW tells a gathering of possible attendants that the VVAW’s official position is not to encourage anyone to commit acts of violence, but that VVAW activists are not “discouraging someone from “doing it”. VVAW activists are not “discouraging someone from committing acts of violence, pg 4

22. FBI files indicate that “VVAW is under active investigation in view of indications of communist and other subversive infiltration”. indications of communist and other subversive infiltration, pg 24

23. Speaker at VVAW antiwar rally Carl Moore makes following statements, “President Nixon is a red baiting Fascist” and “the real problem is Capitalism. All power to the oppressed”. Speaker Carl Moore, pg 30

24. On stage to speak but did not speak at antiwar rally is one “Stanley “The Deacon” Alexander, member of Communist Party USA. Communist Party USA, pg 32

25. Tom Hayden speaking at antiwar rally uses the language of Jihad claiming “that Daniel Ellsberg and Anthony Russo are real Martyars”. Language of Jihad, pg 36

26. One speaker at the rally called for the “elimination of the penal system”. Penal system, pg 37

27. Speaker claims at the rally that, “ the ideal form of government is socialism as it exists in Cuba.” ideal form of government is socialism, pg 38

28. Speeches were given at rally advocating the release of Angela Davis, a self-admitted member of the Communist Party, and facing murder and kidnapping charges. The United Committee to Free Angela Davis founded by CPUSA, (Communist Party USA). Also note at bottom of page the desire to “increase welfare payments. CPUSA, pg 39

29. The VVAW has the SDS and the YSA, Young Socialist Alliance at demonstration. SDS and YSA working with VVAW, pg 69

30. Again we find the VVAW working hand in hand with Communists and Communist front groups. VVAW works with Communists, pg 75-80

31. Membership in the VVAW placed at about 8,500 members nationally. How many Vietnam vets were in the US at this time? And because they did not speak out against the VVAW we all know what happened. VVAW membership numbers, pg 81

32. Read the FBI report concerning a speech given by John Kerry at the University of Nevada, September 30, 1971. Kerry states in this speech, “My ten years of political consciousness in America is very wrapped up in gravestones……the men of Attica and the other 53,000 brothers in Vietnam?. John Kerry speech, pg 86-87

33. An antiwar group (CPPTC) working with the VVAW had also traveled to Hanoi in late 1970 to meet with Communists. People to people peace treaty with North Vietnam, pg 104

34. More support from Communist groups for the VVAW. Communist support, top of pg 111

35. We ask why Senator John Kerry votes against defense and intelligence spending, here may be the answer. page 142, item 2

36. The Black Militant Group in Cairo Illinois that the VVAW has been supplying with food, clothing and guns attacks the local police. Armed Negros Attack Police, these several pages are a must read. Note that in the November 1971 VVAW meeting it is discussed that VVAW supplied the weapons to this Black Militant GroupBlack Militant Group attacks police, pgs 168 – 171The first article you can’t read but follow to the next two articles.

37. VVAW stated goals are to number 9. “To affirm that the membership is not only concerned with ending the war, but changing the domestic, social, political, and economic institutions that have caused and permitted the continuance of war”. The Socialist/Communist agenda, pg 181, item 9

38. VVAW paper identifies John Kerry as “National Spokesman for VVAW. John Kerry Identified as national spokesman, pg 183

39. VVAW collusion with foreign spies? “The Diplomatic List published by U.S. Department of State, in 1971 listed Grigoriy Sergeyvich Milhaylovskiy as an assistant Military Attache, Embassy of the U.S.S>R., Washington, D.C.” VVAW meets with Soviet KGB spy, pg 184-185

40. Back to the future, read John Kerry’s statement to a news paper concerning the Vietnam War, I’ll bet it sounds familiar. “”We are here because we, above all others, have earned the right to criticize the was in South-east Asia. We are here to say that it is not patriotism to ask Americans to die for a mistake and that it is not Patriotic to allow a President to talk about not being the first President to lose a war…..”. Kerry’s speech than sounds like Kerry’s speech now, pg 247

41. Read in the FBI files where John Kerry states, “Ho Chi Minh is the George Washington of Vietnam. Ho studied the United States Constitution and wants to install the same provisions into the Government of Vietnam,” Kerry speaks, pg 248

I've been observing Zogby for the past few election cycles. It's become clear that in the lead up to elections he massages the data to create the impression he desires. For example, he may realize from the raw data that Daschle is in trouble. So, he adds his special sauce to exxagerate a 2-3 point Thune lead to 5 points. The message here is for the Dims to start mobilizing their base and the fraud machine on the reservation. For President, contrary to most other trackimg polls, he juices it up for Bush about 2 weeks out, then reverses the trend in the last week to create the impression of momentum for Kerry. But, what I find most disturbing is the he injects himself into these discussions. One day it's Kerry's race to lose, then it's Bush's race to lose. He should (like most reputable pollsters) just report the data and not inject his political spin.

At the end of the day, this is all just statistical sampling and it has it's own inherent variability. By Zogby altering the composition of the likely pool of voters depending on the political situation, he can influence the message, but he sacrifices the accuracy (and hence the reliability) of the data.

I think the best way to look at polling data is to watch the RCP average. The RCP result averages a number of tracking polls (including Zogby). This method increases the number of respondents (because they use a composite of 5-6 polls)and evens out the bias of each independent pollster. If you look at this average, Bush has been bouncing between a 2-3.5 point lead (nationally) in a 3-way race for the past 10 days. In the end this may not be the exact difference in the election, but the RRCP average allows one to clearly observe the trend over time. At the moment, things are ticking slightly for Bush.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Poll: Republicans inch ahead