Posted on 10/29/2004 9:49:59 AM PDT by MichaelTN04
Bush 50% Kerry 45%
Go with the Fox poll, which is a more accurate measureof where the election actually is today. Also go with the Battleground Poll, which was released earlier this morning, showed Bush up by five points, and had even better news for Bush on his job approval rating. Watch the Gallup poll. Anything beyond that is pretty much solely for entertainment, not enlightenment, regarding the state of the race, at least nationally (well, the Time poll isn't too bad, either).
TIPP is a tracking poll, and the numbers moved in that poll because Sunday, a very good Bush day in that poll, dropped out in today's sample. The next two days were good Kerry days in that poll, so look for Bush to bounce back. Incidentally, this example demonstrates why tracking polls are essentially useless except to detect who had a good or bad day on which days.
Great news. This will likely stand as the final predictive poll from Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. Their final poll in 2000 was released five days before election day and had the race at a 43-43 tie.
If Gallup is true to form their final poll should be released on Monday. That'll be a big one to watch out for.
This trend is our friend.
Break out the Virginia sparkling wine.
Unless California behaves itself.... then Napa Valley.
Never French!
We need to tell the naysayers on this board to hold your fire, since the Bush campaign is an excellent example of grace under pressure. On Tuesday, the Ohio voters will say "Presto" as Dubya puts the Electoral College in a caress of steel.
I remember when this poll was 44/44 forever.... I tend to trust this one because it hasn't fluctuated as much. IOW this is hugh.
RCP still does not have any of the newer Ohio polls up. They still have a composite of Kerry +2. Mason Dixon should also have an Ohio poll out soon. Weather here is shaping up to be a rainy Tuesday, which should squash the GOTV efforts of ACT and ACORN.
Yeah, but, does anyone know what Fox said four years ago, today?
Dan
Our GOP GOTV will crush bad ACTors and ACRONbrains. Take it to the bank. Better yet bet $$$ on it.
As I said above, the final Fox poll in 2000 had the race as a 43-43 tie.
Bush wins on Nov 2:
B 52%
K 46.5%
O 1.5%
Ohio will follow the popular vote and Bush is not getting any less than 50%, so that's that.
The internals look terrific in this poll! I can't see Kerry winning with these kind of numbers. I am stunned that the lad is only 5 when the internals are so lopsided.
Does that answer my question? Is this the final Fox poll, today? Doubt it. But thanks, regardless.
I missed that story. Do you have a URL on that? Many thanks
-Tep
Australian wine is very good and support our ally.
As I also said above, it likely is the final Fox poll. In 2000 they released their final poll five days before election day.
He was up 8 in their last poll.
Wasn't Fox supposed to come out with some state polls as well? Any info?
No, it is not opinion dynamics. I, too, saw the same information this afternoon on Fox News. Bush 50----Kerry 45---Nader (No % shown.)
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