Posted on 10/29/2004 8:12:43 AM PDT by cogitator
I've been trying to remember the 2000 election, because I remembered that the polls were showing Bush ahead most of the time, which was what made the close finish somewhat of a surprise. The numbers posted on this Web site confirm what I remembered. It's a different year and a different election, and it's clear that in 2000 the Dem get-out-the-vote effort was stronger than expected, and this year it'll be matched by the GOP. So this one appears to be in the bag -- but don't be surprised if it again turns out much closer than expected. (And everyone's expecting it to be close!)
Anyway, here are the numbers extracted from the site source:
Candidate E-10 -- E-9 -- E-8 -- E-7 -- E-6
Kerry -- 46% -- 45% -- 46% -- 47% -- 46%
Bush -- 48% -- 48% -- 49% -- 48% -- 48%
Nader -- 1% -- 1% -- 1% -- 1% -- 1%
Other -- 1% -- 1% -- 1% -- 0% -- 1%
Undecided - 4% -- 5% -- 3% -- 3% -- 4%
Candidate E-10 -- E-9 -- E-8 -- E-7 -- E-6 -- Final
Gore -- 43% -- 42% -- 42% -- 41% -- 42% -- 48.38%
Bush -- 44% -- 45% -- 45% -- 46% -- 45% -- 47.87%
Nader -- 5% -- 5% -- 5% -- 4% -- 5% -- 2.74%
Other -- 1% -- 1% -- 2% -- 1% -- 1.01%
Undecided -- 7% -- 7% -- 7% -- 7% -- 7% -- 0%
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Back to my (cogitator) comments: Also note the good news in the Senate races, which is what I calculated a week ago. Unless there are some strange changes (like Bunning losing in Kentucky, which is still a possibility), the Republicans get 53 seats. Not a veto-proof majority, but better.
The DUI discovery on the Friday before the election in 2000 made it closer than it really was. The same thing was tried this year by the U.N., CBS, and NY Times with the missing ammo BS story...
Again... Bush WAS well ahead right up until the last few days.
It isn't a problem that Bush is (slightly) underperforming polls in the comparable period in 2000. It doesn't mean Bush will lose by that difference...
... unless you assume there is another DUI-level story out there.
REALLY..OMG!!
OH NO..
OH NO
*RUNS SCREAMING*
Right, Bush lost like 4 or so points becuase of that sneak attack.
Zogby's more interested in impacting the election than he is in reporting it. If we all get out to vote, Bush will trounce Kerry.
Well, the DUI video evidently kept conservatives away from the polls.
I don't think conservatives will be kept away this go.
I think most of Bush supporters would crawl through broken glass, drive through a tornado, or walk miles barefoot in the snow in order to vote for GWB!
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! You, sir, are absolutely right on -- the "missing explosives" story was explicitly timed to hurt Bush. I think, unfortunately, it's working -- but how badly it's hurting Bush and how much it's hard to say.
We're doomed!
So any truth to the rumor bin laden left with Zarkawi from Afghanistan to Iraq in the fall of 2001?
Zogby was MISERABLY wrong in the 2002 elections. The GOP is using the GOTV machine they used in 2002, not 2000.
I heard a rumor that Zogby said on the DAILY SHOW that undecideds will go heavy for Kerry and that Kerry will win or maybe I just reread the same thread here posted FIVE different times.
"(like Bunning losing in Kentucky, which is still a possibility)"
Not going to happen. We may not be thrilled with Bunning's antics, but we are a very red state and we know what is at stake.
Note that I called the possibility of a Bunning loss a "strange change", which it would be.
Hey,
I'm here in KY- I'll be shocked and eat my words if Bunning does not win comfortably. This state will return him. I know this is not the way to judge, but I think I've seen 3 Mongiardo bumper stickers- and their on the vehicles of the democratic hacks. I in no way believe it's close- closer than it should be, but not that close
Duly noted. I'm not trying to argue, only to say "Let not your heart be troubled!"
I'm sure calling Florida so early helped Gore tremendously. I know many people that were in Alaska (where I was) at the time said "why bother" to go vote for Bush now. How many others across the country felt the same way?
Comparing the undecideds is interesting. 7% in 2000. 3%-4% this year.
IMHO there are few undecideds left and what there are, they are idiots and not watching the news. The kaka story is just pissing off Bush supporters even more and sealing their resolve to get people to the poles.
The KaKa story is going backfire on the RATS big time!!!!
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