Posted on 10/29/2004 7:15:30 AM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist
Hawaii, which Al Gore won by 20% in 2000, only votes GOP in Republican re-election landslides.
Hawaii voted for Ronald Reagan in 1984, in his re-election landslide, and for Richard Nixon in 1972 in his re-election landslide.
These are historical facts.
This must be especially disconcerting news for Democrats.
This IS true and WILL factor in - they are all the way BUSH
WHich may wind up costing them NJ. There was another thread about how most of the money raised in NJ was sent to other states, with them thinking NJ was in the bag. Well, they have little "walking around" money for poll workers on election day, which means that there will be little "get out the vote" enthusiasm among them. NJ for Bush would help create a major landslide
Until 2000, the same applied to West Virginia. That may be no more.
Okay, I admit it.
This is very funny and sure to send them to the crystal-ball for help!
Actually, no Democrat has ever won the White House without Missouri.
The only poll that counts.
Any reports in from Cheney's visit?
Missouri voted for the Democrat every year from 1820 until 1900, inclusive, except 1864 and 1868, when they supported Lincoln and Grant. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has cast its electoral votes for the winner, except in 1956 when the state set its lot with Adlai Stevenson, governor of neighboring Illinois, instead of landslide winner Eisenhower.
Picking up Hawaii would be nice, but polls in Hawaii have been very few. You could turn it around and say...since 1952, New Hampshire has voted Republican 10 of 13 times...when a Republican is in trouble in New Hampshire (this year)...it's all over. The truth is...the Electoral College is pretty even, and Bush needs at least Florida OR Ohio PLUS a decent Midwest pick-up...or he needs BOTH Florida and Ohio.
In Michigan (I'm in Grand Rapids), Gore won in 2000 by 5-point margin (204,467 votes). Gore won Wayne Co. (Detroit) by 294,226 votes. Bush took 60 of Michigan's 83 counties last time. If we could just give Detroit to Canada, this would be a red state. The UAW negotiated the day off, the unemployment rate is 3rd highest in the U.S., we have a sizable Arab population which should shift more Democratic this year. Bush has really invested a lot of time and energy in Michigan. We do have a marriage proposal on the ballot with may bring out a few more cultural conservatives. All in all, it's a pretty steep climb.
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