I always expected to show Kerry with a "surge" at some point anyway, especially after Novak posted that article saying that Zogby told him Bush would probably win. That may have ticked him off, and we know he wants Kerry to win. His "internals" always seem wacky. I don't believe Kerry has a chance if he is really only getting 82% of the black vote compared to Gore. Wait until we get confirmation of Kerry movement from the rest of the polls.
If Kerry is only getting 82% of the black vote, there will be a huge Bush landslide to rival that of Reagan in '84.
I don't believe Kerry has a chance if he is really only getting 82% of the black vote
The black vote is always safely Democrat; don't believe those who say GWB has made inroads into the "black vote."
And were are the internals for this poll?
Kerry's win or loss in PA hinges on Philly... I'm in Pittsburgh a traditionaly Dem Voting area, (old union labor mindset). So you would think here Kerry would be like God, Kerry signs on every corner etc etc etc... but hes NOT. Kerry will definately show weaker here around Pittsburgh than Gore did in 2000, absolutely no doubt about it.
He may still win allegheny county maybe some others around Pittsburgh, but it won't be by the margins Gore did... For Kerry to win PA he has to carry Philly area by a very very good margin... If Kerry doesn't get the turn out in Philly, or doesn't get the support in Philly the state is Bush's all the way.
Pittsburgh area is suffering fiscal calamity due to democratic policies and other malfeasence, and FINALLY every man on the street gets it. Murphy the local mayor here has absolutely NO support.. not to the point of burned in effigy but no one defends this guy, in fact I don't think I've seen him even do a darn thing to rally the troops for Kerry.
In fact when Kerry was here he had an event that you had to have tickets to get to, and they had kids handing them out on the street to anyone just to fill it. For PA the deciding factor is turn out, and support in Philly. Kerry doesn't own Philly/eastern PA by a large margin, he loses the state.
Here's hoping PA goes to Bush, and I can go to bed early next Tuesday.
It is laughable that Zogby should be so pro-Kerry. He is the spawn of hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Greater Syria (Lebanon and Syria) who, given widespread 20th Century Ottoman and then Arab Muslim intolerance, escaped the Middle East for the New World. There is one constant that is found in most of these families, the anti-Semitism they brought with them. If Bush would only back Arafat (and get those damned Palestinians out of Lebabon) Zogby would support him 100%.