Heres Why Bush Will Win Ohio

10/29/04 | Secret4agent

[secret 4 agent]

While looking over the polls I noticed that the surveys for Ohio are all over the place. But let's look at these polls for a minute and then you can decide for yourself who will win as I already have. First of all the governor of the state is republican. The two senators are republican. The legislature in Ohio is republican. The majority of the likely voters on election day is republican. The republicans out registered the democrats in this state by approximately 29,000 in new voters. Now keeping all that in mind one would have to say that Bush will win Ohio. Like I said before though I've seen polls with Bush up as much as eight points and Kerry leading by as much as six points. On October 26th as an example according to Rasmussen Bush lead 50% to 46%. On the very next day I saw Zogby showing Kerry up. I don't believe that polls change on a day to day basis that dramatically at this point in the election race. The other thing is the likihood that there is a large number of undecided voters is very low at this point. So the bottom line is this is what I base my solid prediction on as far as the reason I feel Bush will carry Ohio. Keeping in mind the majority of the likely voters in Ohio will be republican and that would be a difficult task for Kerry to win. The opposite of this would be Bush trying to win New Jersey with the majority of likely voters being democrat. So with this race well within the margin of error which basically was a point away from a tossup according to Rasmussen in favor of the President two days ago when he let by four points I give the advantage to the President.

[The KG9 Kid]

This would have been better posted in an existing poll thread with 'Ohio' in the title... but whatever.

[zarf]

If you're so sure, will you agree that if the President loses OH the FreeRepublic hit squad can go to your house and beat the snot out of you?

[Keith in Iowa]

>>>First of all the governor of the state is republican.

Yeah, a tax-raisnign RINO.

[Pastnowfuturealpha]

From post: "First of all the governor of the state is republican. The two senators are republican. The legislature in Ohio is republican."


This is not really a good point for President Bush. We have had the sales tax raised, fees doubled on tons of stuff and other garbage from these so called Repubs. They are also working against Issue 1 -

In other words, I would not lump President Bush in with them if I wanted to get votes -

just my thoughts -

[secret 4 agent]

Here's what I will agree to though. Somebody is going to find out on election day that there polls were way off.

[counterpunch]

Settle down Keith.

[counterpunch]

The reason Bush will win Ohio is because gay marriage is on the ballot. And because Bush is the better leasder.

[Keith in Iowa]

Huh? You mean to tell me the Ohio gov is not a tax-raising RINO?

[secret 4 agent]

It doesn't change the internal that 97% of the republicans are going to vote for the President versus 90% of the democrats voting for Kerry when your out numbered in an election though. It's just a fact that there are more republicans in the state.

[LegalEagle61]

Another reason is that the BC04 team has this state organized down to the last person in the state, this is why the Bush campaign is so confident about Ohio. They have known all along how important this state is and have been working on it for some time. I am confident in Ohio becoming ours.

[Porterville]

And it's going to rain in Ohio on Tuesday- democrats don't like that clean feeling, they like to keep that stank smell like a dog rolling around in horse dung.

[secret 4 agent]

The gay marriage ammedment in this state will get beat like a drum and it definitely will bring out a large core of voters for the President.

[secret 4 agent]

Yeah I understyand the republicans have organized a large number of workers.

[secret 4 agent]

I didn't check the weather. I do anticipate a large number of voters in this election though. I've never seen the two bases this fired up before.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Ohio  ( 20 Electoral Votes)

>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5  (Bush +3.5)
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread
RCP Average | 10/20-10/28	-	-	46.4	48.4	Off Ballot	Kerry +2.0
Zogby | 10/25-10/28	601 LV	4.1	44	47	-	Kerry +3
LA Times | 10/22-10/26	585 LV	4.0	44	50	-	Kerry +6
Survey USA| 10/23-10/25	831 LV	3.5	47	50	-	Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25	600 LV	4.0	47	49	-	Kerry +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26	537 LV	4.0	50	46	-	Bush +4

[John Lenin]

good news ping

[Pastnowfuturealpha]

And those Repubs. have been known to go for a Democrat. I hate to break this to you - but people are not mindless here in Ohio.

We go by what they(politicians) "do" - and not by what they "say". There may be some sheep - since we also got a load of foreigners/illegals in Ohio - but the majority will vote for someone they believe stands for the values of this nation - and not along party lines just for the sake of it -

Because the people had had enough of Democrats - we elected a Repub. Gov. last time. It didn't take long to learn we had elected a Gov. who taxed and spent - we didn't expect that from a Repub. Our mistake - I believe we have learned a lesson - At least I pray we have -

[counterpunch]

Keith, how about you just pipe down and let's have this discussion November 3rd, OK?
Thanks. Glad we have an understanding.

[secret 4 agent]

Yeah I see what you have posted byt that goes directly to the point that I made in my original comment which was that I don't believe the poll swings this late in the game. On top of that the internals of the surveys that are listed woulds be more favorable to the democrats. They are clearly outnumbered in Ohio and you watch and see. Bush will win the state.