Posted on 10/27/2004 7:12:40 AM PDT by FloridaEagle
All in all this looks good.
As of today, Bush would win:
OH (narrowly, this could be this year's Florida)
FL
WI
IA
MN
NM
HI
and all 2000 states minus New Hampshire. This would give him 317 and Kerry 221. Not too bad.
In actuality, I think W will also win Michigan, making it 334/204.
That guy at RealClearPolitics was so off in 2000, it wasn't even funny. I think Bush is in real trouble here in Ohio.
That guy at RealClearPolitics was so off in 2000, it wasn't even funny. I think Bush is in real trouble here in Ohio.
Dang, that wasn't worth saying twice.
Michigan is intriguing. The gay marraige issue may put GWB over the top there.
"way off in 2000"
He could be way off in a direction that's good for Bush. I live in Virginia, and all I see is Kerry stickers, and I have to force myself to realize that Kerry's toast here. The truth is that Kerry's in trouble everywhere, and Bush is sort of in trouble in a few places, and that's why the Kerry folks are being Lawyers, Guns and Money wherever they go.
Don't forget that single Maine electoral vote that was discussed a bit here (and elsewhere) about three weeks ago.
Michigan is intriguing. The gay marraige issue may put GWB over the top there.
In Ohio, too?
He was, yes. Actually, I am basing my prediction more on Mason-Dixon, which seems to be the best state poller.
Sucks that they show Dasshole beating Thune, though.
We need Ohio. I'm from Ohio and will be working my butt off Friday-Monday to GOTV.
Bush is in great shape in Ohio.
From the Horserace blog ( http://jaycost.blogspot.com/)
Besides my general knowledge of Ohio politics, this analysis is based on a few key facts about the ground game in Ohio:
1. ABC News reported over the summer that Bush/Cheney ’04 was, as of the spring, organized “down to the precinct level.”
2. Other news outlets have implied that Bush/Cheney ’04 has been adopting what appears more and more to be the old Democratic “knock-and-drag" model.
3. KE04 has “outsourced” their GOTV work to outside organizations.
I am also drawing on my knowledge of political machines to theorize about what these three facts really mean. I have spent some time reading the academic literature on political machines of the 19th (e.g. Philadelphia, New York City) and 20th (e.g. Chicago, Pittsburgh) centuries, and that has provided me some perspective on what makes for good GOTV organizations and poor ones. This analysis is also informed by my general understanding of what you might call theoretical political economy.
With my qualifications established, hopefully to your satisfaction, here is my argument for why Bush is right to consider Ohio a safe state and why we are wise to agree:
1. The fact that BC04 is organized down to the precinct level facilitates:
A. Intimate knowledge of every small section of the state. This would include:
1. Knowledge of the number and characteristics of registered voters in the precinct. What issues are enthusing voters? What issues are turning them off? What are the best forms of advertisement to affect voters in each precinct? What are the demographics of the voters in each precinct, and how are these affecting their voting attitudes?
2. An excellent estimate (i.e. an estimate with a low margin of error) of each candidate’s support, and strength of that support, in each precinct over time. This means that in the aggregate, BC04 are working from what is closer to a head-count than a poll of Ohio voters.
3. Ability to track small changes in voter attitudes before election day. This includes intensive monitoring and “discipline” within 72 hours of the election.
4. Precinct-by-precinct quotas built around A-1 and A-2. Specifically, BC04 could probably tell you with high specificity the minimal number of votes per precinct they need to get to enjoy a winning night.
5. In general, BC04 is able to detect problems in the state of Ohio and react efficiently to solve them. If we have not seen Dubya in Ohio until yesterday, it must mean that they are very confident about their position in Ohio. We we saw Dubya in the northeast section of the state, it has something to do with the situation there on the ground.
B. The ability to monitor polling place output on 11-2 and the ability to respond accordingly. This is where we would see BC04 start resembling the “knock and drag” strategy the Democrats have perfected.
C. The benefits of a vertical monopoly. Because the GOP and BC04 are controlling election activities at every level of this campaign, information costs are very low. In other words, people on the bottom can share information efficiently with people higher up, and vice-versa. KE04, meanwhile, because it has “outsourced” its GOTV efforts to organizations like A.C.T. and the labor unions, suffers from dramatically higher information costs – as messages must be communicated across organizations, and even at the cost of breaking the law.
D. The ability to monitor Democratic activities on the ground, and to adapt accordingly.
2. The GOP’s organizational effectiveness was tested in the 2002 general election and the 2004 primary. Thus, BC04 has had time to evaluate and correct systemic flaws (not to mention time to make requisite personal changes). Thus, they are probably enjoying the benefits of 1: A-D now more than they did in 2002.
3. This election is peculiar in ways that benefit Bush.
A. The gay marriage amendment naturally benefits Bush by inducing GOPers and GOP sympathizers to come to the polls. This, along with the GOTV efforts of the GOP, are likely the reasons why the media polls are using improper samples of the electorate.
B. There are no other contested races in the state. George Voinovich is cruising to reelection, and the governorship is not contested until 2006. This means that the only GOTV competition that BC04 faces is KE04 and their affiliated outside organizations. For instance, they need not worry about the “John Glenn Machine” turning people out to the polls to vote for Glenn and, coincidentally, Kerry.
4. Democrats have “outsourced” GOTV to multiple organizations. This hurts them on several levels:
A. It drastically increases information costs between groups. Different groups must now cross organizational boundaries to communicate with one another. This diminishes their flexibility and adaptability – which could be especially damaging on 11-02-04. Higher information costs also yield lower quantities of information. This might be why we have seen the break-ins of GOP headquarters. The GOP has probably lapped the Democratic groups time and again in terms of GOTV research. I am willing to guess that, in many districts, the GOP knows more about Democratic voters than the Democrats do.
B. There is the possibility of intra-Democratic competition– as organizations are more concerned with their reputation and long-term viability than getting Kerry elected. This might induce competition between pro-Kerry groups, reducing their effectiveness.
C. Information costs between KE04 and these groups are very, very high. It is illegal for them to communicate, I believe. Thus, every time they communicate, they run the risk of being caught – which, given the high degree of media and GOP monitoring, is a significant risk.
D. Many of the groups to whom KE04 have “outsourced” their work are untested. The person running the nationwide A.C.T. organization (Steve Rosenthal) had great success in turnout in Philadelphia, but his model remains untested on the national stage. The Ohio field director for ACT (Christy Setzer) was the field director of the Dean Campaign’s “Perfect Storm” in Iowa – nothing to shout about.
E. Many Democratic registration groups do not have the wherewithal to induce its registrants to vote. In other words, many groups are exclusively in the registration game, as opposed to the GOTV game. These new registrants can easily fall through the cracks of the Democratic conglomeration. Intra-Democratic competition could become key here, as one group who has registered voters does not want to hand its list over to a GOTV group, for fear that the latter become a dominant force and thus push the former group out of the market.
5. Ohio is not a swing state. Though it does not register voters by party – it is thoroughly Republican. Both Senators are Republican. The Governor is Republican. There are twice as many Republican than Democratic members in Ohio’s delegation to the House of Representatives.
A. BC04 finds itself having only to play defense in Ohio. There are enough “natural” Republicans in Ohio to tip the election to Bush. BC04’s job is to simply get them to the polls.
B. Ohio also lacks large swing sections. Besides portions of the northeast (e.g. Columbiana County) and central Ohio (e.g. Clark County), most Ohio counties are either thoroughly red or thoroughly blue. This means that the primary way to win a general presidential election in Ohio is through GOTV.
In general, BC04 appears to me to be an ethical, high-tech, more efficient version of the GOTV efforts of the 19th century Philadelphia machine run from Harrisburg by the state’s Republican establishment. This type of organization is particularly suited to Ohio, which is naturally Republican and which presents no comparable competition in GOTV this year. Look for the final partisan breakdowns on Election Day in OH to be much more pro-Republican than the current polling samples. As usual, look for the media to be surprised and the conventional wisdom to be wholly confounded.
Are there any HOUSE RACE polls out there?
Damn, Bro. I don't know if you are FOS or not, but you sure made me feel good about Ohio. Keep up the knowledge transfer.
"Lawyers, Guns and Money"
Man, Warren Zevon was a genius. I miss him...
If it's true it is.
FOS?
How can an organization that averages other peoples polling be wrong?
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