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Numerical Poll Analysis: Gallup polls - May to October, 2004.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup ^
| October 25th, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 10/25/2004 6:26:29 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last sixteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 22-24, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dvwjr; poll; polls
Here are the
'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last sixteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 22-24, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation
(from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column.
The only discernable change in the Gallup partisan internals from the previous Gallup poll is that Bush has more than regained 3% of Republicans from Kerry, Kerry has regained 3% of Democrats from Bush, additionally Bush continued to close the gap among Independents by another 2% points from [Bush 40%, Kerry 49%, Nader 4%] on October 9-10 to the [Bush 42%, Kerry 47%, Nader 5%] on October 14-16, 2004 leading to today's October 22-24, 2004 Independent preference of [Bush 44%, Kerry 47%, Nader 2%]. Kerry's declining support among Independents, combined with slightly fewer number of Republicans in the Registered Voter sample, now leads to Bush's current 2.53% point lead in the Gallup October 22-24, 2004 three-way presidential preference poll.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
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| Gallup Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
| All polls Registered Voters |
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| May 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
34.1% |
33.8% |
877 RV |
41.39% |
46.41% |
7.41% |
4.79% |
| May 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
37.3% |
28.0% |
883 RV |
44.05% |
46.43% |
5.55% |
3.96% |
| June 3-6, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.5% |
37.7% |
26.8% |
896 RV |
42.41% |
45.42% |
7.37% |
4.80% |
| June 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.1% |
37.6% |
28.2% |
882 RV |
44.90% |
46.49% |
5.56% |
3.06% |
| July 8-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.7% |
37.4% |
25.9% |
891 RV |
42.20% |
49.61% |
3.82% |
4.38% |
| July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.5% |
36.3% |
23.1% |
878 RV |
43.39% |
47.38% |
4.90% |
4.33% |
| July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.2% |
38.3% |
22.5% |
916 RV |
48.14% |
46.94% |
2.40% |
2.51% |
| August 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.6% |
36.5% |
25.0% |
897 RV |
45.71% |
45.04% |
5.13% |
4.12% |
| August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.6% |
33.9% |
28.5% |
876 RV |
46.35% |
46.23% |
3.65% |
3.77% |
| September 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.2% |
35.5% |
26.2% |
926 RV |
48.49% |
45.79% |
3.56% |
2.16% |
| September 13-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.0% |
28.1% |
935 RV |
50.00% |
42.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
| September 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.8% |
32.2% |
28.0% |
926 RV |
52.59% |
42.44% |
3.13% |
1.84% |
| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
36.6% |
26.4% |
934 RV |
48.61% |
47.43% |
1.39% |
2.57% |
| October 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.5% |
35.3% |
28.3% |
941 RV |
47.61% |
47.72% |
1.38% |
3.29% |
| October 14-16, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
34.7% |
28.3% |
942 RV |
48.62% |
46.07% |
1.38% |
3.93% |
| October 22-24, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.2% |
35.5% |
28.3% |
1,461 RV |
49.14% |
46.61% |
0.96% |
3.29% |
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Gallup Poll
Internal partisan affiliation breakdowns
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Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
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Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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VNS calculated exit data |
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36.21% |
35.46% |
28.34% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
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Favor Bush |
93.00% |
9.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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47.05% |
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| 10/24/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
88.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
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48.79% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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0.91% |
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| 1,461 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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3.26% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.94% |
34.71% |
28.34% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
11.00% |
42.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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46.13% |
|
| 10/16/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
85.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
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48.61% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
|
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1.30% |
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| 942 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
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3.96% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.45% |
35.28% |
28.27% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
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Favor Bush |
92.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
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45.36% |
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| 10/10/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
89.00% |
49.00% |
Kerry: |
48.00% |
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50.05% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.36% |
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| 941 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
2.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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3.23% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.94% |
36.62% |
26.45% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
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Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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46.57% |
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| 10/03/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
88.00% |
53.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
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49.47% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.40% |
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| 934 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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2.56% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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39.85% |
32.18% |
27.97% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
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Favor Bush |
92.00% |
10.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
53.00% |
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47.64% |
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| 09/26/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
84.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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47.10% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
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3.35% |
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| 926 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
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1.92% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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38.82% |
33.05% |
28.13% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
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Favor Bush |
94.00% |
11.00% |
43.00% |
Bush: |
52.00% |
|
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48.09% |
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| 09/15/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
85.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
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47.79% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
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0.00% |
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| 935 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
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4.12% |
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Neither |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Neither |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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No Opinion |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
No Opinion |
2.00% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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38.23% |
35.53% |
26.24% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
7.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
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45.44% |
|
| 09/05/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
90.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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48.78% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.58% |
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| 926 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
|
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2.20% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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37.56% |
33.90% |
28.54% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
88.00% |
8.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
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43.32% |
|
| 08/25/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
88.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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49.47% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.52% |
|
| 876 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
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3.69% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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38.57% |
36.45% |
24.97% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
6.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
|
42.77% |
|
| 08/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
|
47.69% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
5.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.33% |
|
| 897 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
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4.22% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
|
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100.0% |
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39.19% |
38.32% |
22.49% |
|
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|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
7.00% |
41.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
|
45.52% |
|
| 08/01/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
91.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
49.15% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
7.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
|
|
2.66% |
|
| 916 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
2.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Do not know: |
3.00% |
|
|
2.67% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
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100.0% |
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40.55% |
36.33% |
23.12% |
|
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|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
84.00% |
7.00% |
30.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
|
|
39.43% |
|
| 07/21/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
89.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
50.91% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
4.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.08% |
|
| 878 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
1.00% |
11.00% |
Do not know: |
5.00% |
|
|
4.58% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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36.70% |
37.37% |
25.93% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
85.00% |
6.00% |
34.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
40.60% |
|
| 07/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
11.00% |
89.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
50.00% |
|
|
51.06% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
2.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
|
3.91% |
|
| 891 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
|
4.42% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
34.13% |
37.64% |
28.23% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
45.00% |
|
|
44.63% |
|
| 06/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
86.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
46.92% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
3.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.42% |
|
| 882 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
|
|
3.03% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
35.49% |
37.72% |
26.79% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
86.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
41.54% |
|
| 06/06/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
8.00% |
82.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
|
46.26% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
5.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
7.38% |
|
| 896 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.81% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
34.77% |
37.26% |
27.97% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
44.00% |
|
|
43.44% |
|
| 05/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
83.00% |
48.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.16% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.47% |
|
| 883 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
|
3.93% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
32.27% |
33.98% |
33.75% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
6.00% |
31.00% |
Bush: |
41.00% |
|
|
41.46% |
|
| 05/09/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.64% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
4.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
6.67% |
|
| 877 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
3.00% |
10.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.22% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1
posted on
10/25/2004 6:26:30 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Gallup internals poll ping...
dvwjr
2
posted on
10/25/2004 6:27:32 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
thanks,,you are reallly carrying water for us!
3
posted on
10/25/2004 6:37:10 PM PDT
by
cajungirl
(Kerry:Bad for Geese, Bad for America)
To: dvwjr
I don't understand the re-weighing of the poll numbers. The changing Rep/Dem breakdown is reflective of candidate support and partisan energy, and should not be tampered with. The 2000 turnout model will not apply to the 2004 election, and therefore is irrelevent. Gallup is historically the gold standard in election polling, and they are one of the few organizations that do not fall into the trap of artificially manufacturing partison samples based on the 2000 turnout.
4
posted on
10/25/2004 6:38:09 PM PDT
by
counterpunch
(The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
To: dvwjr; Salvation; redlipstick; texasflower; seamole; Doctor Stochastic; MegaSilver; BlueAngel; ...
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
5
posted on
10/25/2004 6:39:07 PM PDT
by
RWR8189
(Its Morning in America Again!)
To: dvwjr
I sure wish I was equipped to digest this. Alas, I am not.
6
posted on
10/25/2004 6:43:12 PM PDT
by
Petronski
(On the land in the air on the sea, let's swing out to Victory. --Fats Waller)
To: counterpunch
The re-weighting exercise is to show what would happen with the Gallup internals if a Zogby-style (or ARG) variation of the use of the VNS year 2000 exit polls were used in the re-weighting. If you carefully read my post you will see this is for comparison purposes ONLY, not predictive.
dvwjr
7
posted on
10/25/2004 6:45:36 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: Petronski
LOL! I thought I was the only one who's mind shut down trying to figure this out!
8
posted on
10/25/2004 6:47:22 PM PDT
by
Timeout
(Just hours to go....before we can sleep!)
To: dvwjr
I get it!
You've re-weighted the internals and Bush's lead is 49.14 to kerry's 46.61.
Thanks!
9
posted on
10/25/2004 6:52:06 PM PDT
by
Timeout
(Just hours to go....before we can sleep!)
To: dvwjr
Do you have any idea why Gallup used such a large sample this time? Or why they still list the MoE at +/- 4%?
10
posted on
10/25/2004 7:11:50 PM PDT
by
okstate
(I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
To: Timeout
Originally posted by Timeout:
I get it!
You've re-weighted the internals and Bush's lead is 49.14 to kerry's 46.61.
Thanks!
Well, what you see is just how I calculated the numbers by distributing the 1,461 Registered voters according to the published Gallup internals. Since Gallup (as do others) rounds their answers to no decimal places this explains the differences from my numbers. The only re-weighting done in the table is the very speculative right hand column which attempts to rigidly fix the Gallup internals to the year 2000 VNS exit poll data as do some pollsters (Zogby, ARG).
This is also part of the methodology I use to calculate the percentages of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the sample. If the pollsters would publish their results to a single decimal point of precision, then none of what I do would be necessary...
| Registered |
1,461 |
|
|
|
|
| Demographics |
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
Total Raw Votes |
Poll Results |
| Bush |
492 |
45 |
181 |
718 |
49.14% |
| Kerry |
28 |
458 |
195 |
681 |
46.61% |
| Nader |
4 |
0 |
10 |
14 |
0.96% |
| Other/UnDec |
5 |
15 |
28 |
48 |
3.29% |
| Neither |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00% |
| No Opinion |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00% |
| Total Raw Votes |
529 |
518 |
414 |
1461 |
100% |
| Percentage: |
36.21% |
35.46% |
28.34% |
|
100% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bush |
93.01% |
8.69% |
43.72% |
|
|
| Kerry |
5.29% |
88.42% |
47.10% |
|
|
| Nader |
0.76% |
0.00% |
2.42% |
|
|
| Other/UnDec |
0.95% |
2.90% |
6.76% |
|
|
| Neither |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
|
| No Opinion |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
|
| Total: |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
|
Demographics |
Now compare the computed table above to the Gallup published table below. If my data table is rounded to NO decimal places, then it matches the results which Gallup published. This is where the 'extra' precision came from in the above data tables. It's the rounding...
Gallup Poll
Partisan Preference Internals
October 22-24, 2004
| Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Favor Bush |
93.00% |
9.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
| Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
88.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
| Favor Nader |
1.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
| |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
11
posted on
10/25/2004 7:17:18 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: okstate
They want to be a bit more accurate as the election nears. The MoE should be ±2.56% for N=1,461. But that was what was published.
dvwjr
12
posted on
10/25/2004 7:20:51 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
dvwjr, in addition to party ID, another variable you could use for analysis is gender. If you look at the male/female breakdown, it seems as though Gallup has vastly oversampled women, thereby allowing Bush and Kerry to be even among Reg. voters, despite Kerry underperforming among women relative to Gore.
My back of the envelope calculations show a Male/Female breakdown of 600/800 for the registered voter sample. (+/- a few). This is complete nonsense. I do not believe women will comprise 55% of the voters. When you scale it down to historical trends (women are around 52%), then Bush's lead becomes even more.
What do you think?
13
posted on
10/25/2004 8:10:48 PM PDT
by
nwrep
To: dvwjr
An interesting factoid about Gallup is that in the last three presidential elections their final poll was exactly right about the GOP vote share. They were off on the Dem vote share - slightly underestimating it in 2000, and overestimating it in 1996 and 1992 - but they were spot on about the GOP each time.
14
posted on
10/25/2004 8:16:11 PM PDT
by
RW1974
To: dvwjr
Polipundit has some interesting commentary on various polling organizations.
15
posted on
10/25/2004 9:15:33 PM PDT
by
Doctor Stochastic
(Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
To: Doctor Stochastic
Thank you for your link. I had read that excellent summary of polling methods and organizations before but a reminder for all those reading these post is very good...
dvwjr
16
posted on
10/25/2004 10:49:26 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: RW1974
Have to watch Gallup with the Republicans this year. Ever since my first vote for Reagan in 1980, I always wondered if the Republicans would be come the majority party again as they were from the post 'Civil-War' period to the beginning of the depths of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. This could be the year when the Republicans slightly exceed the number of Democrats in this national election...
dvwjr
17
posted on
10/25/2004 11:02:21 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
I like your information. You spend a lot of time to provide it to us and your extra analysis is quite useful to me. I also enjoyed your analysis of Bush closing the gap on independents. It's within the margin of error now, I think.
To: BushisTheMan
Glad you like it. Only a week left, then the polling madness stops...
dvwjr
19
posted on
10/26/2004 1:20:48 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
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