Nope. By this point, they had Bush well ahead. About where he is right now actually. You can also see how massive some of their swings can be.
And remember that Gore won by this measurement. 
Posted on 10/25/2004 12:08:34 PM PDT by KrazyEyezKillah
Bush is over $0.62 in the Iowa Electronic Markets and is surging. It's at the highest level since before the first debate. Buy now why you can still make a quick buck. It's too bad you can't short Kerry.
W. is a lock to win.
W. is a lock to win.
As requested..
I take it the Gallop poll from 3PM set things in motion there.
Money talks, which is why this is one of the most accurate predictors of the election!
W. is a lock to win.
Bush is over $0.62 in the Iowa Electronic Markets and is surging. It's at the highest level since before the first debate. Buy now why you can still make a quick buck. It's too bad you can't short Kerry.
W. is a lock to win.
Is there an echo in here?
Looks good.
IEM has been touted as very reliable. I think they showed the election tied in 2000.
I have the site bookmarked but admit I have a hard time decifering the stats. I still don't understand where .62 is shown.
Anyone know their history of accuracy?
Yes
Yes
I can't read the thing either.
Symbol Average
DEM04_G52 0.152
DEM04_L52 0.245
REP04_L52 0.315
REP04_G52 0.315
The $0.63 (up from $0.63) is the sum of the republican contracts. One contract pays a $1 is W. wins the election with less than 52% of the vote and the other pays $1 if W. wins with more than 52%.
This market predicted the winner in 1988, 1992, 1996. In 2000 it said that W. would win the popular vote, so the traders didn't expect the DUI fiasco.
http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html
John F. Kerry, the guy who has talked more months about Vietnam that he spent in that country?
The guy who brought in the most fearsome of all campaign managers, Joe Lockhart?
And speakers, like Liz "the hippo mouth" Edwards, and that endearing old African billionaire bimbo, Heinz?
That guy is behind?
I would think that investors in this market would be more likely to be Republicans, in that Republicans make up the great middle class --- neither welfare queens with no money, nor limosine liberals who could not be botherered.
Plus, given the small size of the market, it is subject to considerable manipulation by someone like Soros --- witness wild swings of late.
Nope. By this point, they had Bush well ahead. About where he is right now actually. You can also see how massive some of their swings can be.
And remember that Gore won by this measurement.
LOL - shave his head and he'll lose 3 inches!
Terezzzza has puts on him, though. She'll likely put him out in the snow November 3.
I'm very curious as to what the final bids were when the Iowa Market closed in 2000. Any chance that anyone knows the answer.
Seems like it should have been pretty close to 50/50 since the election looked as close at the time as it turned out to be. If so, then the 60/40 split we are seeing and that is on the upswing would be even a better indicator of a Bush victory. If, on the other hand, the 2000 market closed with a Bush/Gore at 90/10 then the actual bid prices wouldn't mean as much.
What?
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