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Numerical Poll Analysis: ABC News/WaPost, ARG, CBS, Fox, Gallup, LA Times, NBC/WSJ, Newsweek, Time.
The Washington Post, (et al) ^
| October 24th, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 10/24/2004 5:27:42 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the latest political partisan affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published since May 2004. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 8 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered or Likely voters for a three-way race (Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dvwjr; polls
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Here are the latest political partisan affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published since May 2004. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 8 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of
Registered or
Likely voters for a three-way race
(Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered or Likely voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
Included at the top of this table are the results of the year 2000 Voter News Service exit polling data for partisan affiliation. The overall breakdown of the Republican, Democrat and Independent voters and their individual candidate preference breakdowns (Bush vs Gore vs Nader vs Other) are shown to allow comparison to current polls and the upcoming year 2004 exit polls and final results.
National Polls
Partisan Affiliation Breakdowns
2004 Presidential Election
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| dvwjr |
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Revision Date: |
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10/24/2004 |
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| United States Presidential Election 2000 |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Other |
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| 105,417,258 Actual Voters |
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VNS Calculated (MoE ±0.85%) |
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Actual Results |
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| November 7, 2000 |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
13,157 V |
47.87% |
48.38% |
2.73% |
1.02% |
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| 2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Bush |
90.51% |
11.09% |
46.51% |
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| 2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Gore |
8.67% |
85.88% |
44.93% |
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| 2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Nader |
0.81% |
1.84% |
6.48% |
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| 2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Other |
0.01% |
1.19% |
2.07% |
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Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
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| ABCNews/Washington Post Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Neither |
Wont vote |
No opinion |
| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| June 17-20, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.8% |
37.5% |
32.7% |
1,015 RV |
43.74% |
48.47% |
5.81% |
0.30% |
0.69% |
0.39% |
0.59% |
| July 22-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.1% |
34.4% |
32.5% |
974 RV |
47.51% |
46.49% |
2.52% |
0.18% |
1.49% |
0.49% |
1.32% |
| July 30- August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
28.6% |
38.7% |
32.7% |
940 RV |
44.26% |
49.57% |
2.13% |
0.32% |
1.28% |
0.53% |
1.91% |
| August 26-29, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.9% |
31.7% |
35.3% |
945 RV |
48.47% |
46.77% |
1.59% |
0.11% |
0.95% |
0.42% |
1.69% |
| September 6-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.2% |
30.5% |
34.3% |
952 RV |
50.21% |
43.59% |
2.00% |
0.42% |
1.79% |
0.32% |
1.68% |
| September 23-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
35.6% |
31.4% |
969 RV |
50.57% |
43.55% |
1.96% |
0.72% |
0.93% |
0.41% |
1.86% |
| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.3% |
31.9% |
31.8% |
1,169 LV |
51.25% |
46.18% |
0.59% |
0.24% |
0.67% |
0.33% |
0.73% |
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| ARG Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
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| All polls Registered Voters |
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| July 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.2% |
38.8% |
26.0% |
773 RV |
44.24% |
47.35% |
2.59% |
5.82% |
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| July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.1% |
37.1% |
27.8% |
776 RV |
44.97% |
48.58% |
2.06% |
4.38% |
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| August 30-September 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.6% |
37.1% |
28.3% |
1,014 RV |
44.67% |
45.96% |
2.96% |
6.41% |
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| October 2-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
37.9% |
27.3% |
1,005 RV |
43.88% |
47.26% |
2.09% |
6.77% |
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| CBS News Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
Depends |
Do not know |
| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| May 20-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.0% |
34.0% |
37.0% |
883 RV |
40.54% |
46.55% |
5.21% |
0.68% |
1.59% |
0.57% |
4.87% |
| July 11-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
27.3% |
34.2% |
38.5% |
789 RV |
41.57% |
45.25% |
5.20% |
0.38% |
1.27% |
1.52% |
4.82% |
| July 30 - August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.3% |
37.5% |
27.1% |
837 RV |
42.51% |
48.39% |
2.99% |
0.01% |
0.37% |
1.19% |
4.54% |
| August 15-18, 20004 |
100.0% |
36.4% |
39.6% |
24.0% |
792 RV |
45.08% |
46.46% |
1.01% |
0.13% |
0.63% |
1.01% |
5.68% |
| September 6-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.4% |
37.7% |
27.9% |
889 RV |
48.71% |
42.41% |
1.35% |
0.34% |
0.67% |
1.01% |
5.51% |
| September 12-16, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.2% |
28.0% |
1,048 RV |
49.90% |
40.55% |
2.96% |
0.38% |
1.15% |
1.05% |
4.01% |
| September 20-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.0% |
37.0% |
27.1% |
898 RV |
49.44% |
41.31% |
2.23% |
0.33% |
1.34% |
1.00% |
4.34% |
| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.8% |
35.8% |
32.3% |
773 RV |
47.22% |
46.96% |
1.55% |
0.00% |
0.52% |
0.65% |
3.10% |
| October 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.7% |
34.2% |
33.1% |
933 RV |
48.00% |
45.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
| October 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.0% |
41.1% |
19.9% |
693 LV |
47.62% |
45.45% |
1.59% |
0.14% |
0.72% |
1.01% |
3.46% |
| October 14-17, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.5% |
35.4% |
32.1% |
851 RV |
45.00% |
45.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
| October 14-17, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.4% |
41.2% |
20.4% |
565 LV |
47.43% |
45.31% |
2.12% |
0.00% |
0.88% |
0.53% |
3.72% |
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| FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
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| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| July 20-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.6% |
38.6% |
27.9% |
900 RV |
43.00% |
42.44% |
3.56% |
10.44% |
0.56% |
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| August 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.9% |
38.0% |
28.1% |
900 RV |
42.00% |
46.00% |
2.44% |
8.89% |
0.67% |
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| August 24-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.8% |
36.2% |
30.0% |
1,000 LV |
42.51% |
43.83% |
3.68% |
9.51% |
0.46% |
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| September 7-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.9% |
37.5% |
28.6% |
1,000 LV |
46.60% |
42.80% |
2.90% |
7.30% |
0.40% |
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| September 21-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.0% |
37.7% |
27.3% |
1,000 LV |
45.60% |
41.80% |
1.30% |
11.10% |
0.20% |
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| October 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.5% |
39.6% |
28.9% |
1,000 LV |
47.49% |
45.00% |
1.49% |
5.51% |
0.51% |
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| October 17-18, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.8% |
36.6% |
27.6% |
1,000 LV |
49.00% |
42.00% |
2.40% |
6.60% |
0.00% |
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| Gallup Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
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| All polls Registered Voters |
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| May 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
34.1% |
33.8% |
877 RV |
41.39% |
46.41% |
7.41% |
4.79% |
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| May 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
37.3% |
28.0% |
883 RV |
44.05% |
46.43% |
5.55% |
3.96% |
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| June 3-6, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.5% |
37.7% |
26.8% |
896 RV |
42.41% |
45.42% |
7.37% |
4.80% |
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| June 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.1% |
37.6% |
28.2% |
882 RV |
44.90% |
46.49% |
5.56% |
3.06% |
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| July 8-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.7% |
37.4% |
25.9% |
891 RV |
42.20% |
49.61% |
3.82% |
4.38% |
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| July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.5% |
36.3% |
23.1% |
878 RV |
43.39% |
47.38% |
4.90% |
4.33% |
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| July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.2% |
38.3% |
22.5% |
916 RV |
48.14% |
46.94% |
2.40% |
2.51% |
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| August 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.6% |
36.5% |
25.0% |
897 RV |
45.71% |
45.04% |
5.13% |
4.12% |
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| August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.6% |
33.9% |
28.5% |
876 RV |
46.35% |
46.23% |
3.65% |
3.77% |
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| September 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.2% |
35.5% |
26.2% |
926 RV |
48.49% |
45.79% |
3.56% |
2.16% |
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| September 13-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.0% |
28.1% |
935 RV |
50.00% |
42.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
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| September 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.8% |
32.2% |
28.0% |
926 RV |
52.59% |
42.44% |
3.13% |
1.84% |
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| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
36.6% |
26.4% |
934 RV |
48.61% |
47.43% |
1.39% |
2.57% |
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| October 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.5% |
35.3% |
28.3% |
941 RV |
47.61% |
47.72% |
1.38% |
3.29% |
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| October 14-16, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
34.7% |
28.3% |
942 RV |
48.62% |
46.07% |
1.38% |
3.93% |
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| Los Angeles Times Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other/UDec |
Dont Know |
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| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| June 5-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
25.9% |
38.0% |
36.1% |
1,230 RV |
42.49% |
48.35% |
4.14% |
0.51% |
4.51% |
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| July 17-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.7% |
40.9% |
27.3% |
1,529 RV |
43.56% |
46.37% |
3.07% |
0.39% |
6.61% |
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| August 21-24, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.0% |
41.0% |
27.0% |
1,352 RV |
46.60% |
44.08% |
3.40% |
0.59% |
5.33% |
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| September 25-28, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.5% |
35.8% |
27.6% |
1,100 LV |
50.55% |
45.09% |
2.36% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
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| pending… |
0.0% |
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| NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Depends |
None/Other |
Not Sure |
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| All polls Registered Voters |
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| June 25-28, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.0% |
40.0% |
22.0% |
1,025 RV |
45.00% |
44.00% |
4.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
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| July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.0% |
40.0% |
21.0% |
813 RV |
47.00% |
45.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
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| August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.0% |
38.0% |
23.0% |
806 RV |
47.00% |
45.00% |
3.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
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| September 17-19, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.0% |
40.0% |
21.0% |
1,006 RV |
48.00% |
45.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
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| October 16-18, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.0% |
41.0% |
22.0% |
1,004 RV |
48.00% |
46.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
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| Note: All R/D/I numbers published by ABC/WSJ |
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| Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
|
|
|
| All polls Registered Voters |
|
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| |
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|
| March 18-19, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.9% |
35.1% |
29.0% |
838 RV |
45.47% |
43.44% |
5.49% |
5.61% |
|
|
|
| May 13-14, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
36.9% |
30.9% |
832 RV |
42.31% |
43.27% |
5.41% |
9.01% |
|
|
|
| July 8-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.4% |
35.6% |
30.0% |
1,001 RV |
44.36% |
47.35% |
2.70% |
5.59% |
|
|
|
| July 29-30, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.0% |
38.5% |
32.5% |
1,010 RV |
41.78% |
49.41% |
3.07% |
5.74% |
|
|
|
| September 2-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.8% |
31.5% |
32.6% |
1,008 RV |
52.38% |
40.58% |
3.37% |
3.67% |
|
|
|
| September 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.0% |
31.4% |
30.6% |
1,003 RV |
49.45% |
42.67% |
2.19% |
5.68% |
|
|
|
| September 30 - October 2, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.3% |
36.9% |
29.8% |
1,013 RV |
45.01% |
46.59% |
1.97% |
6.42% |
|
|
|
| October 14-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.2% |
34.2% |
29.7% |
1,004 RV |
48.31% |
46.02% |
1.10% |
4.58% |
|
|
|
| October 21-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.4% |
35.2% |
29.5% |
1,008 RV |
46.15% |
46.49% |
1.85% |
5.51% |
|
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| Time/SRBI Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Do not know |
Refused |
|
| All polls Registered and/or Likely Voters |
|
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| July 20-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
35.0% |
32.0% |
1,059 RV |
43.00% |
46.00% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
1.00% |
|
| August 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
28.0% |
36.0% |
36.0% |
1,001 RV |
41.00% |
45.00% |
6.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
2.00% |
|
| August 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
32.0% |
35.0% |
1,026 RV |
46.00% |
42.00% |
6.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
2.00% |
|
| August 31-September 2, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.0% |
32.0% |
32.0% |
1,128 RV |
49.00% |
39.00% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
4.00% |
2.00% |
|
| September 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.0% |
32.0% |
37.0% |
1,013 RV |
50.00% |
39.00% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
1.00% |
|
| September 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.0% |
30.0% |
34.0% |
1,014 RV |
46.00% |
42.00% |
6.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
2.00% |
|
| September 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.0% |
31.0% |
33.0% |
877 LV |
48.00% |
42.00% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
2.00% |
|
| October 6-7, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.0% |
36.0% |
33.0% |
1,024 RV |
44.00% |
43.00% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
4.00% |
3.00% |
|
| October 6-7, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.0% |
36.0% |
32.0% |
886 LV |
45.00% |
45.00% |
3.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
| October 14-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.0% |
37.0% |
31.0% |
1,000 RV |
46.00% |
46.00% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
1.00% |
|
| October 14-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.0% |
36.0% |
29.0% |
865 LV |
48.00% |
46.00% |
3.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
0.00% |
|
| October 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
35.0% |
32.0% |
1,059 RV |
50.00% |
43.00% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
1.00% |
|
| October 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.0% |
35.0% |
30.0% |
803 LV |
51.00% |
46.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
0.00% |
|
| |
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|
| Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI |
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The tables listed below are the latest published partisan preference internals for the following polls: CBS News, Gallup, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Newsweek/PSRAI and the latest Washington Post 3-day tracking poll which has published internals. Note that the partisan preferences of both Republicans and Democrats matchup fairly well across the five organizations polls of both Registered and/or Likely voters. The interesting comparisons come to where the preferences of the Independents are measured by these five polls.
Individual National Polls
Partisan Affiliation Preferences
2004 Presidential Election
| |
|
|
38.41% |
41.24% |
20.35% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| CBS News |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
11.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
| 10/17/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
84.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
| MOE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
| 565 Likely |
|
Other |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Other |
0.00% |
| CBS News |
|
Wont Vote |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote |
1.00% |
| |
|
Depends |
1.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Depends |
1.00% |
| |
|
Do not know: |
1.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
| |
|
|
36.94% |
34.71% |
28.34% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
11.00% |
42.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
| 10/16/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
85.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 942 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
| |
|
|
35.80% |
36.60% |
27.60% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
7.00% |
51.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
| 10/18/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
86.00% |
33.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
| 1,000 Likely |
|
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
| |
|
|
35.37% |
35.16% |
29.46% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
9.00% |
38.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
| 10/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
84.00% |
52.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
| MOE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
| 1,008 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
6.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
| |
|
|
31.34% |
34.98% |
33.68% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| ABC/WaPost |
|
Favor Bush |
94.00% |
11.00% |
47.00% |
Bush: |
50.00% |
| 10/21/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
86.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
| MOE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,238 Likely |
|
Other |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Other: |
0.00% |
| PollID=2004293 |
|
Neither |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Neither: |
1.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
Do not know |
0.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Do not know: |
2.00% |
| |
|
|
99% |
100% |
99% |
|
100% |
Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three catagories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' catagory for comparison purposes.
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1
posted on
10/24/2004 5:27:43 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Master poll summary ping...
dvwjr
2
posted on
10/24/2004 5:28:31 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: IMRight
3
posted on
10/24/2004 5:33:19 PM PDT
by
IMRight
("Eye" See BS)
To: dvwjr
thanks, again for your help. "Ping"
4
posted on
10/24/2004 5:33:51 PM PDT
by
onyx eyes
(............just act normal.....no matter what...)
To: dvwjr
Kerry has never hit 50% in these polls.
5
posted on
10/24/2004 5:34:39 PM PDT
by
Cosmo
(Got wood?)
To: dvwjr
That's very colorful. (I'll bother to read it if someone will draw a graph...)
To: dvwjr
Some trouble in there. Dems are giving 80-85% for kerry and Bush is getting around 90%..about 5 points higher. This could be all turning on turnout IF the indy's go kerry. The poll's show Bush leading larger if indy's are split more equally, but tight where they are not.
Luntz may be right..Bush will need a lead of GOP Id'ed voters to overcome any break for kerry by the indies.
THen again, this is based on 2000 turnout and 2002 seemed to be good turnout for GOP.
Go Bush, Git'er done
7
posted on
10/24/2004 5:37:56 PM PDT
by
madison46
(Are there kerry Republicans or only Bush Democrats?)
To: Cosmo
Hello,
I just got polled!! It was a computer, but I was very careful to speak clearly as I said YES, to voting for GW Bush, YES to being Pro-Life, YES to bing a supporter of the 2nd Amendment, YES to supporting the One Woman - One Man definition of marriage.
Glad to be here, MOgirl
8
posted on
10/24/2004 5:38:42 PM PDT
by
MOgirl
(In memory of Walton Wayne Callahan, I love you forever.)
To: madison46
I can't believe that even 10% of republicans would vote for kerry- OVER WHAT??
It's far more likely that people think they're being sneaky and manipulative by claiming to be from one party and then endorsing the opposite candidate.
To: MOgirl
What company called you? Rasmussen or SurveyUSA?
10
posted on
10/24/2004 5:43:03 PM PDT
by
Cableguy
To: dvwjr
Good job as usual. With some of the polls, you got the party ID directly, right (like WSJ and Time)? I just want to make sure.
11
posted on
10/24/2004 5:44:17 PM PDT
by
Cableguy
To: Cableguy
Yep. I have a small note at the bottom of each of the NBC/WSJ and Time sections. I used the data directly from their PDF files and just published it in the table format. It always takes a while for the NBC/WSJ poll, as they dribble the data you want out over 3-4 days...
dvwjr
12
posted on
10/24/2004 5:46:49 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: Cableguy
That is a good question, because if I read mystrypollster.com (sp) right, many don't use party id as declared by the respondent, but census demographis. I guess if you are white, 35 and make 200k your a republican, but if your black 35 and making 200k, your a democrat. Another interesting note would be to find out if the undecideds had a declared party affiliation. I just don't see how they can do that without getting a Party ID declaration involved.
13
posted on
10/24/2004 5:47:39 PM PDT
by
madison46
(Are there kerry Republicans or only Bush Democrats?)
To: dvwjr
Spot on! I do not mind being pinged for this type of stuff. Just gave more $ to the swifties and the RNC.
To: dvwjr
good post, thanks for the ping.
15
posted on
10/24/2004 5:57:01 PM PDT
by
cajungirl
(Kerry:Bad for Geese, Bad for America)
To: MOgirl
I think that was a FEC poll. I had the same one about a
month ago.
16
posted on
10/24/2004 5:57:13 PM PDT
by
Paperdoll
(.........Tell it to a Bush)
To: 7mmMag@LeftCoast
17
posted on
10/24/2004 6:02:44 PM PDT
by
7mmMag@LeftCoast
("....to defend the Constitution of the United States, against all enemies, foreign and domestic")
To: Cableguy
Hello,
The system said at the end, and all I caught was the word Election. Sorry, I was so intent on answering the computer (what a weird world it is, I was worried about talking to a machine!), that I did not catch the polling company. I do know that it was not Rasmussen or Survey USA.
Glad to be here, MOgirl
18
posted on
10/24/2004 6:38:09 PM PDT
by
MOgirl
(In memory of Walton Wayne Callahan, I love you forever.)
To: Paperdoll
Hello,
What does FEC stand for?
Glad to be here, MOgirl
19
posted on
10/24/2004 6:39:10 PM PDT
by
MOgirl
(In memory of Walton Wayne Callahan, I love you forever.)
To: dvwjr
You are awesome, do so much work and get so little credit. You should have your own blog.
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