Some trouble in there. Dems are giving 80-85% for kerry and Bush is getting around 90%..about 5 points higher. This could be all turning on turnout IF the indy's go kerry. The poll's show Bush leading larger if indy's are split more equally, but tight where they are not.
Luntz may be right..Bush will need a lead of GOP Id'ed voters to overcome any break for kerry by the indies.
THen again, this is based on 2000 turnout and 2002 seemed to be good turnout for GOP.
Go Bush, Git'er done
I can't believe that even 10% of republicans would vote for kerry- OVER WHAT??
It's far more likely that people think they're being sneaky and manipulative by claiming to be from one party and then endorsing the opposite candidate.