Posted on 10/24/2004 3:33:18 PM PDT by moose2004
Accuracy and Reliability of Polls We Read, Evaluate, and Discuss Daily.
I put my money in Gallup. I'm still waiting for them to release their latest poll. Is it supposed to be out today?
Sure, Opinion/Dynamics predicted a tie in 2000, but they had a tie at 43-43%.
Really no better than saying 48-43 either way.
Screw the "polls". Vote on Nov. 2nd!
Your reading it wrong , they were dead on @ B48 G48
Are All Polls BS....YES 99%
But I'm encouraged by the TIPP Poll, the fact that Bush is leading by 2 in the Zogby Poll, by 5 in the Time Poll, and 5 in the GW Battleground Poll out today.
I thought Fox/Opinion Dynamics was correct in 2000, thanks for providing that information!
Your milage may vary.
Frequent consumption of these pools may reduce the risk of some kinds of liberalism.
In 1980 polls indicated that Reagan was by no means a shoo-in. (In that case, Carter scheduled his one debate with Reagan an amazing one week before the election. Which Carter lost.)
One thing about "accuracy" of polls. Polls are by nature statistical, meaning that whichever pollster is most accurate in a given cycle is totally a matter of chance. The thing to look at is a number of different polls and see the trends. For example, RCP is averaging polls which probably gives a better look at where the public stands than relying on a single "good" poll.
Harris poll is right on top at your link, with 0% error.
http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm
The ten traditional polls used random samples of telephone households and live interviewers to obtain vote intentions from likely voters. Screening questions that were unique to each poll identified likely voters. More detailed methods statements are available from the individual polling organization.
| 2000-Preliminary | Gore | Bush | Nader | Undecided | Other |
| Election Results | 48% | 48% | 3% | 1% | |
| Zogby | 48% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| CBS | 45% | 44% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Harris (Phone) | 47% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| Gallup/CNN/USA Today | 46% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| Pew Research | 47% | 49% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| IBD/CSM/TIPP | 46% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| ICR/Politics Now | 44% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 2% |
| NBC/WSJ | 44% | 47% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| ABC/WashPost | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Battleground | 45% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
| Alternative Methods | |||||
| Harris Interactive | 47% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| Rasmussen | 49% | 40% | 4% |
The 1980 polls are interesting. Polls were predicting a very close race between Reagan and Carter, and in actual results Reagan trashed Carter: 51/41.
This gives me hope for Bush landslide.
I like the one that has Bush ahead the most. DUH HUH! LOL
Different polls take the trophy of Most Accurate from election to election. You can't really say that because a poll was very accurate last time that the same will be true this time. Harris nailed the 2000 result by predicting a 48-48 tie in their final poll. Zogby nailed it in 1996 when his final poll predicted a 49-41-8 result.
Looking over the history of the Gallup Poll I see that they've polled presidential elections since 1936 and in only two instances has the leader of their final poll gone on to lose the election (Dewey in 1948 and Ford in 1976). So, setting aside exact percentages, Gallup has correctly called 15 out of 17 elections - an 88% success rate. I eagerly await the final Gallup Poll.
Harris has polled every election since 1964. They've only called one wrong (1968 - which they called for Humphrey), and correctly called the 2000 tie. Is Harris releasing one more poll? I presume they are - that'll be a big one to watch for as well.
The closest was Harris that said 47-47.
This was Opinion Dynamics 2000 numbers:
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll | |||||||
| 11/1-2/00 | 43 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1,000LV | |
| 10/18-19/00 | 42 | 45 | - | 4 | 9 | 900LV | |
| 10/4-5/00 | 43 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 900LV | |
| 9/20-21/00 | 43 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 900LV | |
| 9/6-7/00 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 900LV | |
| 7/26-27/00 | 37 | 46 | 2 | 6 | 9 | LV | |
I know it's sound a bit sill, but that Scholastic Readers poll has been wrong only twice in 64 years and it had it called for Bush 52 47.....i cant think of another poll that has been that accurate. And considering that they called Nixon over Kennedy as one of their 2 misses....in reality they have only missed once in 64 years
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