Posted on 10/24/2004 1:04:11 PM PDT by okstate
A new poll shows a suddenly tighter race between U-S Senator Jim Bunning and his Democratic challenger, Daniel Mongiardo.
The Bluegrass Poll indicates that Bunning is apparently leading by six percentage points. The poll is in today's editions of The Courier-Journal of Louisville. The difference between the candidates is within the margin of error. That means the race could be tighter, or Bunning's lead could be larger than the poll indicates. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus three-point-seven percentage points.
A similar poll taken in September showed Bunning with a 17-point lead.
The new poll was conducted by phone from Monday through Wednesday. It shows 49 percent of likely voters would vote for Bunning and 43 percent prefer Mongiardo, a state senator from eastern Kentucky. Nine percent were undecided.
Zzzz.. In the bag for Bunning.
how do pollsters figure out the margin of error?
Ping!
I only found one other Senate poll today -- for Oklahoma, but it's a Tulsa World/Consumer Logic trash poll
I trust them less than Zogby (it had Carson up 6) while all other pollsters have Coburn up at least a few points
If Bunning is ahead by 6 in the Bluegrass poll, we can be confident of victory.
Last year, in the Governor's race, the Bluegrass Poll showed the race to be a dead heat:
http://www.courier-journal.com/localnews/2003/09/28ky/wir-front-poll0928-10166.html
Yet, the Republican went on to a 10 point win:
http://elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/8BEEB31D-5685-4BF3-A898-AAAFE37C86B3/0/state.txt
A Survey USA poll conducted just about the same time this Bluegrass Poll was conducted showed Bunning to have a 16 point lead.
Is it a coincidence that 6 points in the Bluegrass Poll plus a possible bias of 10 points equals 16 points in the Survey USA poll?
Of the state polling organizations, Mason-Dixon and Survey USA are clearly the best.
Last Bluegrass poll had Bunning at 51%. Now he's at 49%. The movement has been in Mongiardo's support level, which may hit 45% by election day.
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