Posted on 10/24/2004 12:54:37 PM PDT by Cableguy
Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.
President Bush was up by nine points.
I declared therefore the existence of empirical evidence that ours was no battleground state. I asserted that John Kerry was getting killed in South Arkansas by the National Rifle Association's opposition to him on gun issues and his perceived cultural liberalism on gay issues.
That was the percolating conventional wisdom nationally at the time. Arkansas was universally painted pink, for "lean Bush."
Maybe you ought now to forget that.
We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.
Kerry has made gains on whether he can handle Iraq. He bests Bush on which candidate would better deal with the economy.
The Democratic nominee may not treat us as a battleground state, but we appear to be one anyway by our own independent streak and stubborn will.
Maybe Kerry ought to take Bill Clinton's convalescing advice and make a little investment here, if for no other reason than to force George W. or at least Dick Cheney to leave Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Florida for an hour or two to come down here and hold serve.
And if, as reported as a possibility, Clinton lumbers back home for presidential library opening advance work before Nov. 2 and makes a little campaign appearance, things could get downright fascinating.
This race in Arkansas has always been about which flock turns out most, Clinton's or the Rev. Ronnie Floyd's.
It's enough to start me worrying about Arkansas' deciding the election again and whether places like Pulaski County and Phillips County can manage amid the certain record turnout and likely razor-thin margins to throw a credible election.
Even before the new poll results came back, I was intending to hedge.
Democratic officials in Arkansas were oddly serene about the first set of unfavorable poll results. They were saying voter registration was at an all-time high in the state and that the bulk of the increase was provided by Democratic-recruited registrations. They were saying their grassroots workers had never been so fired up. They were saying that if they got fully in gear and got all their voters to the polls, they at least would make the race very close.
Then I came home the other day to punch up the answering machine to hear a message for the woman I live with, never before what you would call a political activist. The caller was thanking her for her offer to help the Kerry campaign and inviting her to attend a class to learn to be a poll watcher, then be one on Election Day.
Oh, Lordy. I'd prefer that she not do that, since I'm in the news business and I'd hate to confront a familial conflict if there were some big brouhaha at the polling place she happened to be watching.
But I dare not suggest any infringement of her constitutional freedoms of expression and assembly.
I know how Mike Huckabee must feel, saddled with a spunky spouse.
A postscript: I appear to have been probably right about gun rights and gay marriage hurting Kerry. This time we asked people how important those issues were to them. We found that 63 percent said gay marriage was important, either very or somewhat, and 60 percent said the same of gun issues. And, yes, gun and gay issues were bigger in southern and eastern Arkansas.
Previous polls:
|
500 LV
|
4.5
|
48
|
48
|
1
|
TIE
|
|
|
617 LV
|
4.0
|
51
|
46
|
-
|
Bush +5
|
|
|
503 LV
|
4.5
|
46
|
45
|
2
|
Bush +1
|
|
|
502 LV
|
4.5
|
52
|
43
|
-
|
Bush +9
|
poll ping
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1255337/posts
Ad buys in Arkansas..
Bush ads - 0
RNC ads - 0
GOP 527's - 0
-
Kerry ads - 0
DNC ads - 0
Dem 527's - 0
Arkansas is in the Bush bag, forget about it.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1255409/posts
I don't believe it for a minute. A few, mind you, FEW, Kerry-Edwards signs have appeared in Southwest Arkansas, but this is among a SEA of Bush-Cheney signs.
Kerry will win the Delta. Bush will take everything else.
Bush will win Arkansas.
In 2000 Arkansas voted against Al Gore the southerner and the eight years VP for their native son President.
This laughable poll is telling us that Arkansas is equally split between President Bush and a left wing ultra liberal elite from Massachusetts.
Thanks for the link. Looked kind of fishy.
Brummet is a hack and a yellow dog democrat. He is about a degree left of Gene Lyons, and he is only trying to encourage the true believers.
Let's see this is what, the third time this has been posted?
We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.
No partisan break down and the head of the polling group talks about "Kerry's strong showing in the debates" a word for word quote from the DNC Talking point memo. Nope this is another DNC direct hit poll trying to rally the Dim faithful. Not serious. Paying any attention to this would be the same as paying attention to a Democrat authorized poll.
I heard on ABC today that Clinton is wanting to goto ARK to campaign for Kerry since it is now so "close".
Given that this is the third posting and Cableguy just posted another pro-Kerry poll, methinks we might have a troll on the loose.
I hope he takes th bait.
They are dreaming. I will be happy if Kerry spends time and money there in the next week. He can't win Arkansas.
I get that feeling too.
I wouldn't even "drop knives" with someone who "columnized" for a living.
OK... Look into this outfit a little more closely.
This is not Mason-Dixon, but a poll commissioned by a left-wing paper for their purposes.
The author is John Brummett, a left-wing columnist.
His paper is a left-wing counterpoint to the conservative Arkansas Gazette.
Here is some of his work:
Hark, a left-wing blog: Left-wing blogs may be our only hope. Now we have one right here in Arkansas, thanks to those old Arkansas Gazette refugees at the Arkansas Times.
Does Arkansas News Bureau = AR Times?
yes, Arkansas Times is their "Content Partner", one of several left-wing institutions under the umbrella of Arkansas News Bureau, A Stephens Media Company.
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