Note that Bush's poll numbers shot through the roof after the GOP convention. I'm hoping he keeps up the basic conservative message through the end of the campaign.
Right you are. And when he uses data from "last time" he is not including the Republican blow out in the 2002 mid term elections.
I thought this was worth reposting from a few years ago. The major determinant of the election in not the swing voter but the intensity of the vote and pollsters can’t gauge turnout. The pollsters just make assumption. Rasmussen just weights his raw data according to last time.
1 posted on 10/24/2004 11:20:25 AM PDT by Dave Burns
That is really, really interesting. One of the things I have heard wisphered around the net is how the polling models are all based on pre 9-11 models. No one really knows how 9-11 may have effect the intensity of voters.
After the 2000 election Karl Rove said there were new constituencies out there that have been created and Bush needed to go after them.
Rove realized this assumtion was wrong during this campaign Nothing has changed and there are not new constituencies. The name of the game for Republicans to win this election is getting out their core constituency of conservative voters.
The name of the game for Dems is to make sure Vote Fraud is in full effect.
The new generation of voters is more conservative and republican thanks to mass murder of liberal families' babies over the last thirty years. Thanks to Roe V. Wade Gore came up just short fours ago. As liberals continue to thin out their numbers via abortion the nation will drift to the right.