I was reading a blog citing an unnamed Bush insider saying they expected this to happen...could be, I suppose.
Posted on 10/24/2004 8:17:53 AM PDT by watsonfellow
My dear Fellow Freepers,
The Bush campaign is aware that the race will tighten this weekend as voters take a good last look at Senator Kerry. By next week, probably Wednesday or Thursday, you will see a sudden, unexplainable surge of Bush.
So take the tightening of polls today and tomm. in stride and remember, join the 72 hour programme, talk to your undecided friends (in a measured tone), give money and time to the effort, do all you can do.
Check your timing.
What do you mean?
Sorry, misread your post. Thought you said this week and not this weekend! I need to take a chill pill.
I was reading a blog citing an unnamed Bush insider saying they expected this to happen...could be, I suppose.
I think it should be illegal to poll two weeks before the election.
I do too. Good point.
From Slick: A Novel written by Daniel Price who runs Abused by the News. I'm just a little over halfway through and I am enjoying it immensely. There's a paragraph on page 58 that sums up the real problems with polls and pollsters.What the pollsters who steer this country don't want you to know is that phone surveys, by their very nature, suck. They rely on the feedback of the two kinds of people: those who enjoy talking to telemarketers and those who enjoy lying to telemarketers. Neither group speaks well for the rest of us.So, polls up, polls down, who cares? Staying calm.
Zogby's daily tracking poll said that Bush hit 50 for the first time in yesterday's data point. Bush had 49-46 Friday then 50-43 yesterday.
Yeah, Zogby is crap, but so are the 3 other tracking polls. He's the best of the 4 tracking polls we have right now.
Hannity said on Friday that the polls will show that Bush is way ahead by the end of this next week as by then most will be decided. I'm nervous, but ready to see BUSH win!
50-43 yesterday? Is that a typo? No way could Kerry be only 2 points behind Bush in the rolling 3 day if that were so.
We are in the middle of the final push by the MSM to put Kerry over the top. Expect Washington Post (they endorsed Kerry) Tracking poll at 50-48 Bush and Rasmussen at 49-48 Bush, TIPP at 48-46 Bush. We are ready, the people are taking a final look at Kerry...and hopefully tonight we get good news...but by Wednesday the Bush surge begins (in spite of the Dems, begala, Carville, Lockhart, etc. lies lies lies)
No, not a typo.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1255110/posts
Kerry only needs a 49-45 Thursday to keep everything 2 points ahead.
If the democrat is ahead, the polls will show he's ahead. Some days he'll be more ahead, and on those days the polls will be the lead item in every news report and the headline on every paper. Other days he'll be less ahead, and on those days the polls won't be mentioned; what will be mentioned is that people "are tired of polls."
If the GOP is ahead, the polls will not show he's ahead, and if they do, it will be called "a statistical dead heat" or "too close to call" or "within the margin of error." The polls will get tighter and tighter in the days before the election.
Right up to the blow-out. That's what happened in 2002.
(steely)
If that is the case (that the polls will tighten) I should take a little "break" from all news and internet sites for the next couple of days. I can't stand all the ups and downs. I want to see W win handily.
Maybe I rent a couple of good Westerns and read a good book instead.
You're right... Seems the MSM has been SCRAMBLING to do Saturday polling (traditionally GOOD for Democrats) just in time for the Sunday Morning shows so they can announce the "Race has tightened."
By Tuesday or Wednesday the poll will be BACK to where they were (and ACTUALLY ARE) with Bush up 3-8%.
My concern is, that they will BOMBARD us with Saturday and Sunday polling NEXT weekend with the skewed results having an impact on Tuesday...
I suggest you pray!!!!
What you are talking about has apparently already happened to the extent that it is even going to happen -- at least with the national polls. After Kerry got a temporary bump during and immediately following the debates, the race seems to have reverted to a small but solid three or four lead point for Bush, which I predict will be five or six points on election day.
To be sure, I am more concerned about the EC map, which has not yet followed the national polls, reflects at most a one or two point race, and seems to be stuck on the period when Kerry did get a bit of a bump during and just immediately following the debates. Supposedly these polls lag behind the national polls by three or four days. Historically, the EC map matters only when the national race is within two points, although Bush needs to be up by at least four points before he can think about winning Pennsylvania and Minnesota and by at least five points before he can think about winning Michigan and maybe New Jersey.
'Maybe I rent a couple of good Westerns and read a good book instead.'
OPEN RANGE is one of the best movies I have seen in years....
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