Betting on bagging Osama -- Journalists wager on exact day of bin Laden capture

The Toronto Star ^ | 10-24-04 | CAROL HARRINGTON

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Some reporters think he's already in U.S. custody Some reporters say U.S. troops already have bin Laden, but Bush is waiting for right time to play his ace in the hole
 

CAROL HARRINGTON
SPECIAL TO THE STAR

KABUL—These days, rumours are flying among foreign journalists here that Osama bin Laden — the world's most wanted man — is about to be snared.

Some journalists are even wagering on the exact day the Al Qaeda leader will be pulled from his hole, mountain, cave or bunker.

Few scribes affirm their assumptions are fuelled by concrete intelligence.

But most admit to basing their claims on sheer speculation — that President George W. Bush will snag bin Laden just in time to clinch the Nov. 2 U.S. presidential election.

Some journalists have gone so far as to assert that the Americans have already bagged bin Laden, but Bush is waiting for the most opportune time to play his ace in the hole.

"George W. is just waiting for the right moment to pull bin Laden out, and show him to the world," a U.S. newspaper correspondent said recently.

"The American public ... will reward him with another term in office."

I must admit that, for several months, I harboured the theory that Bush, in a moment of desperation, would miraculously catch his Number 1 enemy.

My conjecture was formed last February, during an interview with a top Afghan security official in Kabul.

The official told me the Americans could catch bin Laden at any time.

To emphasis his point, he leaned over his big wooden desk, glanced at his wristwatch and said that if the Americans wanted, they could have their man in custody by 3:30 p.m.

It was 3:15 when he spoke.

I asked him why the Americans didn't do just that, to which he replied: "That would mean they would have to leave."

The last recorded statement believed to have been spoken by bin Laden came in the form of an April 15 audiotape.

But so far, among the pack of journalists who haunt the media centre in Kabul to attend daily briefings on Afghanistan's continuing presidential election process, there has been no speculation that the Al Qaeda chief is dead.

Apart from the common theories that bin Laden is in Afghanistan or Pakistan, there is at least one other area being touted.

British journalist Gordon Thomas this month claimed in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo that bin Laden was given asylum by Chinese authorities in exchange for placating some 5 million Muslim guerrillas who are rising against Beijing.

If George W. does know where bin Laden is, this would be a good time to play that ace.

He is taking some hard hits on the issue from Democratic opponent John Kerry as the two candidates tear across the United States in a flurry of final campaigning.

Kerry pounced on the president for admitting that chasing down bin Laden — architect of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — is not the principal aim of the war on terror.

Thundered Kerry: "Compared to this president, who made significant boasts about chasing after Osama bin Laden and then only months later said, `I don't know where he is and I don't really care and I don't think about him that much,' let me make it clear: I will fight a tougher, smarter, more effective war on terror."

The president took a defensive stance.

"Of course we're going to find Osama bin Laden. We've already got 75 per cent of his people," he said.

"And we're on the hunt for him. But this is a global conflict that requires firm resolve."

Three years have passed since Al Qaeda's top members vanished after organizing the deadliest terror attack in history. Yet the constant, near-mystical presence of bin Laden continues to haunt the U.S.-led military dragnet in the craggy mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Earlier this year, France's chief of defence admitted that the elusive bin Laden had escaped capture several times.

"Our men were not very far," Gen. Henri Bentegeat said in March. "On several occasions, I even think he slipped out of a net that was quite well closed."

Most military and intelligence officials tend to agree that bin Laden and his top associate, Ayman al-Zawahri, are holed up somewhere along the rugged, 2,500-kilometre border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The fugitives don't seem to settle in one spot for long.

Last February, bin Laden was believed to have left southeastern Afghanistan to take refuge in Pakistan's South Waziristan region.

It was reported in the Pakistani Urdu press that he was under the protection of rings formed by dozens of Al Qaeda fighters and more than 1,200 Taliban who easily blend in as local Pashtun tribesmen.

Bin Laden moved from that area when some 70,000 Pakistani troops converged on the semi-autonomous tribal region and made dozens of arrests of suspected Al Qaeda members.

U.S. forces hunting Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan have expressed frustration about their prey's ability to elude them by slipping across to the Pakistani side.

Even though Pakistan became a key post-9/11 ally in the U.S.-led war on terror, it refuses to permit foreign troops to hunt for militants on its soil.

American bounty hunter Jack Idema, while on trial in Kabul for torturing Afghans in his private jail, said he gave U.S. authorities the exact address where bin Laden was hiding in Peshawar, a Pakistani border town near the Khyber Pass that served as the key staging area for the jihad in Afghanistan.

Idema, who has spent much time tracking bin Laden, said he couldn't understand why it took the Americans several days to reach the address.

By then, bin Laden, was gone, he added.

Since last February, the U.S.-led military coalition has intensified its search by bolstering manpower by 50 per cent to its current 18,500 troops stationed in Afghanistan.

They pay for information, track suspicious areas by satellite, conduct house-to-house searches, monitor cell and SAT phones, search vehicles at surprise checkpoints and conduct air assaults.

Last March, the U.S. House of Representatives doubled bin Laden's bounty to $50 million.

The concentrated effort seems to have paid off. In the past two months, dozens of terror suspects, including some key Al Qaeda operatives, have been arrested in Pakistan, near the Afghan border.

Maj. Scott Nelson, a U.S. military spokesman in Kabul, says the coalition receives daily tips on bin Laden's whereabouts from Afghans and Pakistanis, ranging from first-person sightings in the mountainous border region to someone who talked to someone who talked to someone who saw the fugitive.

"There's a tendency for people to embellish these things," says Nelson, adding that following up every lead is a painstaking procedure.

Yet, Nelson says the coalition is getting closer to nabbing their man.

"His routine is going to give him away," he insists. "Somebody is going to turn him in."

---

Carol Harrington is a Canadian freelance journalist based in Afghanistan.

[DSBull]

UBL maybe about to be brought forward, but it will take a shovel and a hefty bag to do it.

[Peach]

This article is further proof that reporters are really stupid. World class stupid.

[MKM1960]

How much does it cost to by the pool position of dead in a cave. Let's face it Osama Bin Laden was a convienient face to slap on the WOT. Probably not the best thing to do since the Dems whine "Where is he, where is he?". He is no longer the nexus of world terrorism and the Dems can't get over that hurdle. My bet is that the only thing that will ever be recovered of OBL is DNA.

[MKM1960]

My bad buy instead of by. Sorry.

[Anti-Bubba182]

"..Some journalists have gone so far as to assert that the Americans have already bagged bin Laden, but Bush is waiting for the most opportune time to play his ace in the hole..."

I've got Elvis in my basement, shall I call CBS.

[joldnir]

It seems that they are covering themselves on both sides of this issue.

If UBL is captured or killed now, it is done for political reasons to get Bush reelected. However, if UBL is not captured or killed by the election, then Bush took his eye off the ball.

[gridlock]

OBL is a grease spot on the wall of some anonymous cave. If he were not, he would be seen in videos and heard in audio tapes all over the World. Instead we get file footage and really, really poor quality recordings.

Reporters who would not believe a CIA flack if he told them the time of day report without critical evaluation when the CIA "authenticates" these tapes. Could it be, perhaps, the CIA has it's reasons for promulgating the myth that OBL is still alive? After all, if the World thinks that OBL is still alive, the next great Slammie leader cannot emerge to take over. In the mean-time, the dead OBL is not a very good organizer or recruiter.

The optimal position for the United States is to have OBL dead in a cave, but the rest of the World thinks he is alive. Darn if that does not seem to be the situation we have today...

[bert]

Just like the Scarlet Pimpernel, "He's here, he's there, he's everywhere"

[bert]

Just like the Scarlet Pimpernel, "He's here, he's there, he's everywhere"

[Principled]

If UBL is captured or killed now, it is done for political reasons to get Bush reelected. However, if UBL is not captured or killed by the election, then Bush took his eye off the ball.

Yep.

[Grendel9]

I haven't any great faith in UBL's imminent outing(because I think he died of natural causes if not in Tora Bora), but
it did cross my mind this week when Tony Blair agreed to
move the Brits north. I know the premise is to free up
American forces for the final taking of Fallujah; but a few questions arose. Consider how opposed many of the English people are to their troops "helping Bush" and what this has done to Blair's popularity; consider too that everyone knows Bush could use the October Surprise right now; toss in
the fact that a coup of some kind in Iraq would help Blair
as well as the rest of the coalition leaders.
Hey..I'd settle for Zarquowi or the bespectacled Doctor Zawahri!

[momincombatboots]

I sincerely hope he is dead. Haven't heard anything from my special ops buddies, but I suspect they woulda been left out anyway. Spooks had that AO.
Personally i like the alive and hiding scenario better. And we are on his six every day... A running and hiding leader is much less effective than a dead, maytr leader.
I would love to see him in a nice orange jumpsuit on November 1st.. I don't care what the democrats would say. And MISSION ACCOMPLISHED engraved on his forehead.

[Eastbound]

"But most admit to basing their claims on sheer speculation — that President George W. Bush will snag bin Laden just in time to clinch the Nov. 2 U.S. presidential election."

Note to all aspiring journalists: President Bush has already clinched the election. Aren't y'all paying attention? This is a non-story.

[WorkingClassFilth]

These hacks have been tipping the kool-aid jug. Even IF OBL was alive and IF Bush produced OBL now, every mouthpiece and propaganda organ of the RAT conspiracy would absolutely fire-hose America with fairly just condemnations of playing politics above honesty and candor. A fair number of middle-folks, being pleased with his capture, would also be reasonably ticked-off by the blatant political nature of such a stunt.

Like the rumor mongering of a resuscitated draft, the value is in the charge - not the substance. For that matter, they could claim that Bush is actually a deep-cover mole left over from the cold war era and recruited through a documented gay trist. In any event, it doesn't matter as a credible point of contention - ONLY THE TIMING AND REPUGNANT NATURE OF THE LIE HAVE MEANING FOR UNINFORMED VOTERS. I can only surmise that the best possible route is to play the cards as they fall since the RATs won't be able to parley these charges into something more substantial in time for the election.

[bucephalus]

What if Bush says on November 5, "Oh yeah, we've had him for months. I just didn't want to politicize it."

My other favorite scenario: The French capture him (somehow), and won't extradite because we have the death penalty.

[gooleyman]

Some reporters think he's already in U.S. custody Some reporters say U.S. troops already have bin Laden, but Bush is waiting for right time to play his ace in the hole

-----
We've got Saddam's WMD too. And we plan to show them along with OBL on the same day....Election EVE. You heard it here first.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

He's dead, Jim.