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Good catch.
The shirlock holmes of Polls you are
Why isn't Florida sewn up? Jeb had a big victory there a couple of years ago, is it not a case of the scumocrats fear-mongering? That is, after all, their only trump card.
I'm guessing they are not contradicting themselves. They can choose as their sample the experienced voters and leave off those who are newly registered. That is not to say they don't survey the newly registered. They just are not including them in THIS particular sample. My guess anyway.
total contradiction
but basically matches a new Miami Herald/St Petersburg Times poll out this morning... 46 K, 46 B among likely voters
http://www.stpetetimes.com/2004/10/24/Decision2004/Down_the_stretch__a_d.shtml
obviously, nobody has ever given any of these sources an award for objectivity
Its a poll of registered voters. If the GOP isn't getting its early voters out in droves to the polls, this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's hope the Florida GOTV effort is in full swing!
Maybe a good number of the new voters signed up just for the beer money. Seems like a good motivator.
"who have registered in record numbers"
Several times in several states...
Mason-Dixon has Bush by Three. Who knows what is really going on here but I have to think this will go Bush's way. I think Bush will Florida in a hurry on election night. He hasn't been there in a while and needs to concentrate more on Florida and Ohio this last week and half in order to place them both into the win column.
It's Research 2000 (D). You might as well add five points to Bush's totals, giving him a four-point lead.
"600 registered Florida voters"
means its a junk poll, also adjusted for 'states party affiliation' which if based on exit polls is itself suspect.
they overpolled dems in 2000.
I breathing a sigh of relief on these details - Bush *should be up* about 5points.
I think he will win Florida easily, Jews who went for the Lieberman ticket now need to think about the GWOT ticket, but wait and see.
No contradiction. The new voters are just the alternate personalities of loyal rat voters (they all have a right to vote don't they?)
Newly registered, never-voted-before types have a very low turnout. Most of them only register to get the bribe the RATs offer.
Right now, Fl. is the most important state in the union. If we lose 'er, we are just about cooked.
First most important state: Fla. Because that is the foundation for everything. Then Ohio because that is the closer. Then, failing Ohio, Wis. because that is the fail safe stop loss leaving us one agonizing vote short of the House of Representatives. Then, counting Wis in, Ia with 7 to win. Or, N. Mex with 5 which would also be a win. Then Maine where we could just possibly find the one electoral vote in this ticket splitting state to get us to 269 and a victory in the House.
This means that we must hold all the 2000 states if we lose Ohio. If we lose Florida we must hold Ohio and gain Wis and either Ia. and N. Mex. or Ia and one from Maine. Instead of requiring Kerry to run the table to win as he must if we win Ohio, we must run the table if we lose Fl.
I am aware that other states like Or. or Pa or even NJ can play a decisive role for us but this is my judgment of the probabilities. If we win Ohio we are almost certain to win. If we lose Fl. we are almost certain to lose. If we lose Ohio all eyes turn first to Wis and then the rest.
Since writing the above Ia. has moved distinctly toward our column but N. Hamp has weakened then steadied a bit. I think Me. and N. Hamp deserve a visit because they could just make the back door in. Failing Ohio, we need Wis. if we don't hold N. Hamp, if we do, we can win with just Ia (which looks good) and N. Mex. (about which one cannot be so sanguine.)
I was much encouraged by the photos of Bush's Saturday in Fl. posted here. I also believe the extended voting period will act in our favor, indeed, a neighbor in Fl. just e-mailed me in Germany that he has sent his vote in. But the truth remains, as goes Florida so goes the nation this year.
Godspeed, George Bush.
Bush needs to show up one more time in Florida -- this time in the Cuban community.
Bush in good shape in Florida
Florida GOP and rat voter turnout in 2000 and 2002:
2002
2,828,288 56% GOP
2,172,702 43% RAT
2000
2,909,176 49 % GOP
2,907,451 49 % RAT
Approx. 750,000 less rats and 80,000 less GOP turned out (10-1) in 2002 than in 2000.
This in spite of the fact that 2002 was supposed to be "revenge" against Jeb for 2000
For Kerry to win, about 800,000 more democrats would have to show up and the GOP numbers remain constant. Thats not going to happen.
Kerry is not going to do any better than Gore, a lot of people that voted Gore last time are for Bush, the same can't be said for the rats.
Consider that Kerry gets 10% less women than Gore did. Thats 150,000 more votes right there.
I guess its just a coincidence, but 2002 was the first year they used those computer voting machines, doing away with those pesky chads.
Could it be that the stupid rats haven't figured out a way to cheat these machines yet, could that be a factor in the mystery of the disapearing dems?
After all, its a lot harder for a bunch of foaming at the mouth socialist morons to "lose" ballot boxes, or punch thousands of ballots after the polls have closed, to fool a computer.
Democrats engaged in massive vote fraud in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade in 2000.
They would have kept punching and counting until Gore was President.
They have been trumped by the computer.
No wonder they are pissed
W should break 3,000,000.
freely translated this column reads: "hopefully, voter fraud will pull our guy through."