Posted on 10/23/2004 10:22:34 PM PDT by blogblogginaway
A surge of newly registered voters has helped Democrat John Kerry regain momentum in the presidential race in Florida, where he has pulled even or just slightly ahead of President Bush, according to a statewide poll less than two weeks before the election.
Kerry has rebounded in Florida and other key electoral states since falling behind Bush in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention early last month. The momentum now is shifting almost daily, however, leaving the two candidates in a statistical dead heat on their way to a suspenseful finish.
The latest poll, conducted Oct. 18-21 by Research 2000 for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union, found Kerry leading Bush by the narrowest of margins in Florida: 48 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader.
The results came from 600 registered Florida voters who have a history of voting in statewide elections. They reflect the state's party affiliations and demographics by age, gender, race and region. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kerry fared best with African-Americans and the youngest and oldest voters. Bush held a clear lead among middle-aged voters and Hispanics.
Interviews with some of those surveyed indicate that new voters, who have registered in record numbers this year, are giving Kerry his best chance for ousting the incumbent president. One big question on Election Day, Nov. 2, is whether these newcomers will show up at their polling places.
(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...
Good catch.
The shirlock holmes of Polls you are
Why isn't Florida sewn up? Jeb had a big victory there a couple of years ago, is it not a case of the scumocrats fear-mongering? That is, after all, their only trump card.
I'm guessing they are not contradicting themselves. They can choose as their sample the experienced voters and leave off those who are newly registered. That is not to say they don't survey the newly registered. They just are not including them in THIS particular sample. My guess anyway.
total contradiction
but basically matches a new Miami Herald/St Petersburg Times poll out this morning... 46 K, 46 B among likely voters
http://www.stpetetimes.com/2004/10/24/Decision2004/Down_the_stretch__a_d.shtml
obviously, nobody has ever given any of these sources an award for objectivity
Its a poll of registered voters. If the GOP isn't getting its early voters out in droves to the polls, this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's hope the Florida GOTV effort is in full swing!
a good rule of thumb is that a poll with less than 800 LV is worthless. The extrapolation is bogus and skewed towards keeping it a "horsrace" for news value.
Maybe a good number of the new voters signed up just for the beer money. Seems like a good motivator.
Or they're including enough new voters to skew the results.
"who have registered in record numbers"
Several times in several states...
The economy is good, so I attribute the current tie to the hysteria some seniors have fallen victim to regarding the flu vaccines. Ever since that hit, Kerry has picked up 4-6 pts in FL to make it a race again. It's frustrating how a small segment of voters can sway back and forth over issues that have nothing to do with the candidates.
Mason-Dixon has Bush by Three. Who knows what is really going on here but I have to think this will go Bush's way. I think Bush will Florida in a hurry on election night. He hasn't been there in a while and needs to concentrate more on Florida and Ohio this last week and half in order to place them both into the win column.
It's Research 2000 (D). You might as well add five points to Bush's totals, giving him a four-point lead.
don't forget draft hysteria, as mentioned in the article
how many new voters just signed up because of peer pressure or beer are going to stand in line for hours and vote?,, LMAO,,
FloridAH! is Bush country. Any poll saying otherwise is wishfull thinking on the part of some partisan DemocRAT pollster.
I think you're right. Florida must be Bush Country.
My area is full of Kerry signs. (All the Bush ones were pulled up, we know how that crowd works.)
My area is not a wealthy area, and the working wage is extremely low. Not a lot of good jobs around - lots of low paying ones about $6 or $7 an hour. But the cost of living has really risen. A lot of folks are barely making it, and most of them have no education how the economy works. Erego, they are looking for a nanny to take care of them. Kerry's spiel of "You're getting squeezed and I will save you!" resonates.
Nanny Kerry. It's sad to see them looking for a saviour in the government, but when you come down to it, I think that's really what's behind Kerry's appeal here. People just don't seem to realize how useless and destructive that is.
Oh, by the way, I live in the Bay area. I don't have to tell you, if you live here, how the press is relentless in its hammering of Bush. The St Petersberg Times rivals the NYTimes in its bias.
I swear, when they consider stories for the front page, number one consideration is whether it makes Bush look bad. It is more than obvious. Today the full page photo of the crying British hostage, begging for her life. They say absolutely nothing good about him. I don't know how he is doing as well as he is, with the depth of the media hatred and their agenda as an arm of the DNC.
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