Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush 48 - Kerry 47 - Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/23/04 | Scott Rasmussen

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Saturday October 23, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When "leaners" are included, the President leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

Our weekly polling update gives a clear sense of how close and stable this race has remained since John Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination.

Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will update our Senate overview and provide the latest numbers from North Carolina and Oklahoma.

Tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will take a state-by-state look at the Toss-Up states whose Electoral Votes will determine the winner of Election 2004. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and Kerry with 190. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional state polling data.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Likely Voters are somewhat or very worried that another Florida-style mess will mar the end of Election 2004.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters expect their taxes to go up if Senator Kerry is elected. Most expect their taxes to stay the same if the President is re-elected. On Social Security, voters are evenly divided as to which is riskier--letting workers invest on their own or relying on the federal government for promised benefits.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Top line - Bush 48.0, Kerry 46.7

[Petronski]

Dude, this is posted already. Didn't you get my ping?

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I decided to give this its own thread.

Here's the update of the 15 day and 6 day moving averages for you to graph. Over the next two days, Bush will move through two of his three remaining weak days under 48.0%. He had five such days 9/24-28, three such days 10/5-7, two 10/12-13, and one on 10/18. This accounts for the nice upward trend in his 15 day number.

Date	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry
2-Jun	44.80	45.00	45.00	44.00
3-Jun	44.60	44.80	44.50	44.00
4-Jun	45.00	44.80	45.00	44.50
5-Jun	44.80	45.00	44.50	45.00
6-Jun	44.80	44.80	45.00	44.50
7-Jun	45.00	44.80	44.50	45.00
8-Jun	44.80	45.00	45.00	45.00
9-Jun	44.80	44.80	45.00	45.50
10-Jun	45.00	44.80	45.00	45.00
11-Jun	45.40	44.40	46.00	44.50
12-Jun	45.20	44.60	45.50	45.00
13-Jun	45.40	44.80	46.00	45.00
14-Jun	45.40	45.20	46.50	45.50
15-Jun	45.40	45.00	46.50	45.00
16-Jun	45.40	45.00	46.50	45.00
17-Jun	45.80	45.20	46.00	46.00
18-Jun	45.80	45.20	46.00	45.50
19-Jun	45.60	45.20	45.50	45.50
20-Jun	46.00	45.40	46.00	45.50
21-Jun	45.40	45.60	45.00	46.00
22-Jun	45.40	45.60	44.50	46.50
23-Jun	45.80	45.80	45.00	46.50
24-Jun	46.00	45.40	45.50	46.00
25-Jun	45.60	45.60	45.00	46.00
26-Jun	45.60	46.20	45.00	46.50
27-Jun	45.80	45.80	46.50	45.50
28-Jun	45.20	45.60	45.50	45.00
29-Jun	45.40	45.80	45.50	45.50
30-Jun	45.60	45.80	45.50	46.00
1-Jul	45.00	45.80	45.00	45.50
2-Jul	45.40	46.00	45.50	45.50
6-Jul	45.80	46.00	46.00	46.00
7-Jul	45.40	45.60	46.00	45.50
8-Jul	45.40	46.00	46.00	46.00
9-Jul	46.20	46.00	46.50	46.50
10-Jul	45.60	46.00	46.00	47.00
11-Jul	45.60	46.20	45.50	47.00
12-Jul	45.60	46.60	45.00	47.50
13-Jul	45.40	46.60	45.00	48.50
14-Jul	45.40	46.60	45.00	48.00
15-Jul	45.40	47.00	44.50	48.00
16-Jul	45.60	47.20	45.50	48.00
17-Jul	45.60	47.00	45.50	47.50
18-Jul	45.60	47.00	45.50	47.00
19-Jul	46.00	47.00	46.50	46.50
20-Jul	45.80	46.80	46.50	46.00
21-Jul	45.60	47.00	46.50	46.00
22-Jul	45.60	47.60	46.00	46.50
23-Jul	45.60	47.20	46.00	46.50
24-Jul	45.40	47.00	46.00	46.50
25-Jul	45.80	47.20	45.50	47.50
26-Jul	45.80	46.80	45.50	47.00
27-Jul	45.80	46.80	45.50	47.00
28-Jul	45.80	47.20	45.50	47.50
29-Jul	45.80	46.80	45.50	47.00
30-Jul	45.80	46.80	45.50	47.50
31-Jul	45.80	47.00	45.50	47.50
1-Aug	45.60	47.20	45.00	48.50
2-Aug	45.80	47.00	45.50	47.50
3-Aug	45.40	47.60	45.50	47.50
4-Aug	45.40	47.40	45.50	47.50
5-Aug	45.40	47.40	45.50	47.50
6-Aug	45.60	47.60	45.50	48.00
7-Aug	45.80	47.20	46.50	46.50
8-Aug	46.00	47.40	46.50	47.50
9-Aug	46.00	47.60	47.00	47.50
10-Aug	45.80	47.80	46.50	48.00
11-Aug	46.00	47.80	47.00	48.00
12-Aug	46.00	47.60	46.50	47.50
13-Aug	46.00	47.80	46.00	48.50
14-Aug	46.20	47.60	46.00	48.00
15-Aug	46.00	47.80	45.50	48.00
16-Aug	46.40	47.60	46.50	48.00
17-Aug	46.20	48.00	46.00	48.00
18-Aug	46.20	47.80	46.00	48.00
19-Aug	46.40	48.00	46.50	48.00
20-Aug	46.60	48.00	46.50	48.50
21-Aug	46.40	47.60	46.50	47.50
22-Aug	46.40	48.00	46.50	47.50
23-Aug	46.20	48.00	46.50	47.50
24-Aug	46.20	47.60	47.00	47.00
25-Aug	46.60	47.60	47.00	47.00
26-Aug	46.40	47.40	46.50	46.50
27-Aug	46.40	47.20	46.50	46.50
28-Aug	46.80	47.20	47.00	46.50
29-Aug	46.80	47.00	47.50	45.50
30-Aug	46.60	46.80	46.50	46.00
31-Aug	46.80	46.80	47.00	46.00
1-Sep	47.00	46.60	47.50	46.00
2-Sep	47.20	46.20	48.00	45.50
3-Sep	47.40	46.20	48.00	45.50
4-Sep	47.42	45.94	48.05	45.85
5-Sep	47.32	46.08	48.30	45.70
6-Sep	47.52	46.10	48.30	45.75
7-Sep	47.68	46.00	48.20	46.00
8-Sep	47.56	45.98	47.90	46.45
9-Sep	47.62	46.06	47.55	46.65
10-Sep	47.84	46.04	47.55	46.75
11-Sep	47.86	46.00	47.85	46.30
12-Sep	47.88	45.90	47.90	46.00
13-Sep	47.76	46.32	47.70	46.30
14-Sep	47.88	46.10	47.30	46.30
15-Sep	47.94	45.98	47.80	45.80
16-Sep	48.22	45.86	48.45	45.55
17-Sep	47.92	46.14	48.15	45.85
18-Sep	48.02	45.94	48.35	45.60
19-Sep	47.96	46.14	48.55	45.40
20-Sep	48.02	45.92	48.65	45.25
21-Sep	48.16	45.74	48.85	45.15
22-Sep	48.26	45.64	48.30	45.45
23-Sep	48.18	45.70	48.55	45.35
24-Sep	48.14	45.68	47.85	46.00
25-Sep	48.28	45.66	48.35	45.55
26-Sep	48.12	45.78	48.10	45.95
27-Sep	48.04	45.86	47.60	46.30
28-Sep	48.34	45.64	47.90	46.30
29-Sep	48.52	45.54	48.15	45.90
30-Sep	48.28	45.80	48.15	46.10
1-Oct	48.22	45.76	48.30	45.80
2-Oct	48.40	45.62	48.85	45.45
3-Oct	48.20	45.92	48.75	45.75
4-Oct	48.38	45.76	48.65	45.70
5-Oct	48.36	45.96	48.25	46.30
6-Oct	47.98	46.20	48.10	46.15
7-Oct	48.18	46.14	48.20	46.40
8-Oct	48.24	46.10	48.15	46.55
9-Oct	48.42	46.08	48.40	46.40
10-Oct	48.50	45.98	48.65	46.10
11-Oct	48.60	45.88	48.70	45.75
12-Oct	48.34	46.02	48.50	45.85
13-Oct	48.44	45.96	48.55	45.85
14-Oct	48.48	46.00	48.75	45.65
15-Oct	48.44	45.90	48.20	45.65
16-Oct	48.36	46.14	47.95	46.20
17-Oct	48.46	46.16	48.5	46.15
18-Oct	48.14	46.28	48.25	46.4
19-Oct	48.28	46.24	48.25	46.4
20-Oct	48.54	46.14	48.4	46.65
21-Oct	48.46	46.14	48.15	46.75
22-Oct	48.54	46.08	48.65	46.25
23-Oct	48.46	46.26	48.15	46.8

[MNJohnnie]

What is it about Friday? Kerry ALWAYS seems to have has his best day of the week on FRIDAY

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I saw the Job Approval posted.

[per loin]

Why this obsession with each day's new poll results? If we really want to know how rapidly the country is swinging from one candidate to the other, we should, at a minimum, be polling hourly. Better still would be constant 24 hour a day polling with instantaneous compilation and reporting of results over the internet.

[demlosers]

To be more specific that's Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7

[Petronski]

Looks pretty unremarkable to me. What should I be seeing?

[Kuksool]

The Ras poll picks up Saturday and Sunday in its 3 day rolling average next week, don't be surprised to see Kerry take the lead, at least, for a few days.

[Petronski]

Better still would be constant 24 hour a day polling with instantaneous compilation and reporting of results over the internet.

Got a link for that?

[MNJohnnie]

The Ras poll picks up Saturday and Sunday in its 3 day rolling average next week, don't be surprised to see Kerry take the lead, at least, for a few days.

They have been doing that all along. Kerry never breaks 47.5%. Bush will not trail at all.

[Petronski]

I do see a common line running through the 15-day line for W, shown here in blue for contrast:

[Timeout]

In the first post you mentioned a "ping".

If you have a ping list for poll updates, please add me.

Thanks.

[Illinois Rep]

The raw data for Rasmussen would show this

Wednesday night
Bush 44.9 Kerry 46.6

Thursday night
Bush 51.9 Kerry 44.2

Friday Night
Bush 47.2 Kerry 49.3

3 day rolling average
Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Now you are seeing half of what you should be seeing.

Look at the Kerry data. Look very long term and nearer term since September.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

So we almost certainly will bump up tomorrow.

[Illinois Rep]

I would hope that we will see each night start to remain more constant as the election is getting closer. I would not expect to see the last weekend having the weekend effect as much as in the previous weekends.

I believe Bush will start having more 51-44 nights and start reflecting a growing gap in the closing days. I think the final vote on election day will be Bush 52.4 Kerry 45.7 and all others 1.9 percents with Bush taking 320 or so electoral college votes.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

You are a pessimist!

;-)

I'm thinking over 360 EV.

[lasereye]

I believe Bush will start having more 51-44 nights and start reflecting a growing gap in the closing days

Why wouldn't this already be happening? When exactly is this supposed to occur? When are we in "the closing days"?