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Where is Bush's immigration policy helping him in this election?
Real Clear Politics Electoral Map ^ | October 22, 2003 | Plutarch

Posted on 10/22/2004 1:02:03 PM PDT by Plutarch

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To: Cold Heat
Bush recently mentioned the time period as a time certain. previously he has said 2-4 years.

I'd like to see that. I'm not aware that he has.


The fines are ranging from 5-10 thousand dollars in the process of this same talk.

I'm pretty confident that's rubbish. Cite?


No bill, to my knowledge has yet been written as a result of these discussions.

You are correct, there is no Bush bill. He has spoken on his proposal about a handful of times. Unless I missed an occasion, your assertions as to its contents are incorrect.


As I said, they are just hearings and I was lucky to catch a couple of them on C-span.

Hearings about the Bush proposal? I'm skeptical.

121 posted on 10/22/2004 10:14:24 PM PDT by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis
The correct approach is to enforce the laws already on the books and make life miserable for illegal aliens and their employers,

You must not have been following this issue for very long, because if you had you would know that we have been trying to enforce these regs and laws since 86.

They are not enforceable, and they never have been.

Around and around they go in a circle. Catch/release/catch again/release.They never show up for their hearings and we have no room to hold them, even if we could hold them. Which we can't.

Businesses are taking and using false ID's and documents. They do not have the ability to enforce or check these docs and they will not. It is economically not feasible. Therefore, the courts and prosecutors do not prosecute. The problem is just too big!

Other small companies just blatantly violate the law. Why bother, nobody will ever visit them. They are not even on the fed books because they do not pay social security taxes. They do not pay any taxes. They pay their people in cash and are invisible to regulators. These operations number in the thousands. Close one and two more pop up.

The courts need guidance from the appeals courts and there is none coming, because the Constitution of the U.S. and the States need to be amended.(which won't happen)

Frankly, after study of this issue for a while now, I don't think that reform is likely because the complexities are not understood.

It might be easier to simply invade Mexico and control it from that side. The immigration law we currently have, combined with the social and economic realities of Mexico and the U.S. make enforcement and control impossible.

The border is better off open with stricter regs regarding qualification to work and other regulations that modify behavior, rather than apprehension and force.

No job and no possibility to get one, and you have nipped the problem at it's core.

As long as they can work and make a living whether through a job or through social services, they will come in droves.

122 posted on 10/22/2004 10:34:22 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Cold Heat

"Other small companies just blatantly violate the law. Why bother, nobody will ever visit them. They are not even on the fed books because they do not pay social security taxes. They do not pay any taxes."

So what would happen if you or I didn't pay taxes ?


123 posted on 10/22/2004 10:41:45 PM PDT by seastay
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To: Cold Heat
There is no way, short of declaring a state of emergency and suspension of habeas, that they can get rid of more than a few hundred per day.

What is your basis for this assertion? How many illegal aliens are deported annually?

124 posted on 10/22/2004 10:43:19 PM PDT by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis
Hearings about the Bush proposal? I'm skeptical.

The hearings I saw were shortly after, within a few weeks anyway, of Bush's first outing of this idea.

Congress, in the normal course of business, had hearings on the efficacy of the idea. It was at committee level and frankly I forget which committee. There are several that deal with immigration matters.

I am sure C-span would be helpful in finding the transcript or tape if you like.

They were not discussing any bill or any reforms, they were discussing the idea of a work permit and their were about 6 witnesses if I recall, on the panel.

I was impressed with the depth of understanding about immigration problems and lack of solutions.

125 posted on 10/22/2004 10:43:49 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Fatalis
I do not have my finger on the most recent stats. The older ones can be googled.
126 posted on 10/22/2004 10:50:13 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Fatalis
your assertions as to its contents are incorrect.

I am working from memory, but that memory is usually correct. Especially since I have been all over this issue for years.

You also probably did not know that Bush first made this proposal when he was Governor of Texas.

He has been looking at this for a long time.

127 posted on 10/22/2004 10:55:52 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: seastay
So what would happen if you or I didn't pay taxes ?

You and I are not invisable to the fed. We have credit reports, bank accounts and write checks.

They don't.

128 posted on 10/22/2004 10:58:42 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Cold Heat
You must not have been following this issue for very long, because if you had you would know that we have been trying to enforce these regs and laws since 86.

I have, and we haven't. Almost all of the illegal aliens who are apprehended annually are caught within three days of crossing the border. Employer sanctions are conducted against a few dozen employers a year. Employers employ illegal aliens all over the country because the law hasn't been enforced. Enforce the law and most will stop.


They are not enforceable, and they never have been.

No, they are not enforced. Big difference.


Around and around they go in a circle. Catch/release/catch again/release.They never show up for their hearings and we have no room to hold them, even if we could hold them. Which we can't.

The reason we don't hold them is not because "we can't," it's because we don't have the room. Of course we can hold them, they are flight risks. Do we have the bed space and court space to process the load? No, that's the problem, not the excuse.


Businesses are taking and using false ID's and documents. They do not have the ability to enforce or check these docs and they will not. It is economically not feasible. Therefore, the courts and prosecutors do not prosecute. The problem is just too big!

You are wrong again. Currently there is a voluntary program by which employers can determine whether the employees are working legally (and the IRS has always been able to determine this). Why is the program voluntary? Because Congress won't make it mandatory. That the problem is unsolved does not mean it is unsolvable. Build more beds and courts, and expedite the deportation process. Don't release aliens who've lost their deportation hearings out on the street. Congress has the Constitutional authority to do all of this. The problem is big only because they haven't yet done it.


Other small companies just blatantly violate the law. Why bother, nobody will ever visit them. They are not even on the fed books because they do not pay social security taxes. They do not pay any taxes. They pay their people in cash and are invisible to regulators. These operations number in the thousands. Close one and two more pop up.

How do you know, when we almost never close the one?

There are neighborhoods where it was once said "shut down one drug dealer, and two more pop up." That was just a rationalization for the failure to shut down the one.


As long as they can work and make a living whether through a job or through social services, they will come in droves.

As long as folks advocate legalizing illegal aliens year in year out, as a natural consequence of their own defeatism, and periodically actually do legalize them, they will come in droves.

129 posted on 10/22/2004 11:01:08 PM PDT by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Cold Heat
I am working from memory, but that memory is usually correct. Especially since I have been all over this issue for years.

Then you should be able to remember where to find the citations for your assertions. I don't believe you can.


You also probably did not know that Bush first made this proposal when he was Governor of Texas.

He has been looking at this for a long time.

George W. Bush's leanings on illegal aliens precede his terms as Governor as Texas. I've been looking at him for a long time.

Ditch the Bush proposal, it will never sell as anything but amnesty, as it legalizes illegal aliens for a fairly nominal fee (less than they pay coyotes). The Tancredo proposal, or one like it, which requires guest-workers to apply from their home country will sell, and won't be considered an amnesty.

130 posted on 10/22/2004 11:08:29 PM PDT by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis
I don't believe you can.

Well I stand by them and don't care if you believe them or not.

Really!

This issue is not one of my research projects and I have no saved data. (had some but it went with the failed hard drive last month)

Bush said 2-4 years and now just says time certain. Two years was floated first. I think that might have been scored as too expensive.

He had no intentions of actually writing the bill. He appealed for congress to pick up the ball.

They haven't, and he will likely get it going again after reelection.

I look forward to the arguments again. The same lame amnesty claims, and the same paralysis that signifies this important issue.

131 posted on 10/22/2004 11:25:39 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Fatalis
which requires guest-workers to apply from their home country will sell, and won't be considered an amnesty.

I would not object to it for newbies, that would make sense, but the settled workers will not likely be forced to do that.

If they are, I can guarantee a no sale. They are located all over the country. Most would see it as a ploy and would not be able to make the trip anyway. Most have no homes in Mexico.

What he and you are asking is ludicrous. It is unworkable and a poison pill for the bill.

But that is the idea, is it not.................

132 posted on 10/22/2004 11:33:30 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Cold Heat
Then you haven't honestly understood the objections to the Bush proposal, I'm afraid. To legalize the illegal aliens currently here will be seen far and wide as amnesty, and rightly so. This will not pass, and we have reached an impasse.

Guest-workers must apply from their nations of origin, it is the only reasonable compromise. Yes, it is a encouragement to get illegal aliens to leave, that's part of the point, while acknowledging the need for a guest-worker program. Current illegal aliens who leave sooner would not be disqualified from applying, but if they are apprehended once the plan begins, they would be. Such a prescription would be at once just and tough.

To say that they will never leave and no one will make them only confirms darker suspicions about the will of anyone supporting the Bush proposal to carry through with the promised deportations after some portion of the illegal aliens are legalized. If that camp refuses to undertake those deportations now, on what basis can they be trusted to do it later? If illegal aliens wouldn't leave in order to take advantage of something like the Tancredo proposal, or to avoid its penalties, why would any leave under the Bush proposal?

Among the claims you've made on this thread:

82: "The deportation is waived only if certain conditions are met. This is the entire point of the change. Thousands will be deported under the changes, and their family members who are unemployed, numbering in the 100s of thousands will be going home as well. They can come back if they pass through the hoops."


99: IMO the primary reason is the notorious 86 amnesty and the tinkering done with code to stop further crossing.I think the courts and liberals caused the 86 act to fail. The intentions were good, but the reality and our Constitution forbid enforcements and many other problems. Not to mention immigration lawyers and advocates, phony docs and weak kneed politicians.

These changes had the opposite effect, as they caused what once was temporary employment, usually lasting months and followed by a return to Mexico to year round employment opportunities and no return.

Therefore family members also come across and entire illegal communities are created to serve their needs.

The temporary nature changed due to ramped up border enforcement and caused them to stay rather than return IMO. Not to mention the Mexican government pushing them from behind to solve their own employment problems.


114: "The courts have gutted what they can do. Any large numbers of deportations and the immigration attorneys will stop it cold by requesting hearings, investigations and trials on every single case which is their Constitution given right."

122: "Around and around they go in a circle. Catch/release/catch again/release. They never show up for their hearings and we have no room to hold them, even if we could hold them. Which we can't."

At #82 you promise that "thousands will be deported" (though millions will remain) and also that familymembers of guest-workers will leave also. Yet at #99, #114, and #122 you give all sorts of reasons why few deportations can take place now. Nowhere do you give an explanation as to what would enable us to deport later when you say we can't deport now. This is a major flaw common to the hypothesizing of folks such as yourself who advocate legalizing illegal aliens (and despite your protests, any such proposal will be correctly seen as an amnesty). The theoretical success of your plan in the future depends on a policy you claim is impossible now, yet nothing about immigration lawyers or the courts would change.

Another common flaw is a fundamental misunderstanding of why the 86 amnesty (why do you accept that as an amnesty, by the way?) failed. It failed not because it couldn't be enforced, but because there was never a good faith effort to enforce it. Couple that with the obvious rewards of legalized status and there was much incentive and little disincentive for foreigners to become illegal aliens. So they came by the millions. Jobs for illegal aliens never dried up.

Now with the Bush proposal we will get much the same result. Without enforcement against employers of illegal aliens and the illegals they employ, there would no incentive to pay a more expensive guest-worker and no incentive for a foreigner to bypass the guest-worker line and come looking for the jobs you claim we can't prevent. And after a second amnesty, why shouldn't future illegal aliens assume that there will not be another, and another?

Again, if you claim that we'll enforce the laws against illegal aliens and their employers in the future, why do you insist that we can't do it now? What would change in that regard?

133 posted on 10/23/2004 4:20:30 AM PDT by Fatalis (The Libertarian Party is to politics as Esperanto is to linguistics.)
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To: Fatalis
Again, if you claim that we'll enforce the laws against illegal aliens and their employers in the future, why do you insist that we can't do it now? What would change in that regard?

I suppose that is a fair question, but I answered it at least a half a dozen times.

Under the current code the deportations won't work due to protections that courts have ruled on in the current code. That is what confuses this issue! They have legal standing on far too many issues and it is largely the fault of the bad law in the code.

ALL OF THIS would need to be change by scrapping the entire code and rewriting it to past muster with the courts. It might also be necessary to pass a Constitutional amendment.

These problems run so deep that I cannot see any possible way to fix it as it is. We must start over.

Currently, the hundreds deportations are not really deportations daily and thousands weekly are only simple repatriations. The illegals that manage to stay in country for more than a few days are not touched, because they have legal rights to stay while the courts decide.

That is why deportation can't be done as you have described several times.

Any further tinkering with existing law results in the "same ole-same ole"..........Additional court intervention each and every time. The border patrol has been forced to work within the cracks in the law that they can find.Things the court has not yet said was a violation of rights.

Basically, they only have a few days to catch the newbie, after that he is home free, along with millions of others. Dispersed into the body of the country where local LEO will not pick them up for deportation as long as they do not break the law.

Millions and millions of them, with many of them having extended families and American born children in American schools leading American lives.

You are correct, we are at a real solid road block here! The status quo is likely to remain until enough people are willing to come to the table and discuss this without all this positioning.

Rationality is not very evident in this argument on either side of it.

I am speaking from the center and realize that the realities will be the guide as to how we approach the problem. Realities that so far have stopped any major reforms cold and will continue to do so unless serious compromise is used on BOTH sides, because nothing will be done if it is not.

I suppose one could say that what I advocate is to approach this problem from a fresh, untainted view point without the emotional baggage and the past.

134 posted on 10/23/2004 10:32:26 AM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: Marine Inspector

"To bad most of it is being wasted or mismanaged. "


Bingo. That is probably the biggest problem as it is in most government bureaucracies. It seems most govt employees are concerned with their union benefits and not this country. Social Security benefits will now be given to illegals and according the the GAO, SSA gave over one billion dollars in disability benefits to people who did not qualify. SSA's operating budget was 8.6 billion last year...
Source: GAO analysis based on SSA data.

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-929.

http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/useftp.cgi?IPaddress=162.140.64.88&filename=d04929.txt&directory=/diskb/wais/data/gao



SSA Should Strengthen Its Efforts to Detect and Prevent Overpayments

Overpayment detections in the DI program increased from $772 million in fiscal year 1999 to about $990 million in 2003. The true extent of overpayments resulting from earnings that exceed agency guidelines is currently unknown. Based on available data from SSA, GAO found that about 31 percent of all DI overpayments are attributable to DI beneficiaries who worked and earned more than allowed. Moreover, GAO found that these overpayments contributed to mounting financial losses in the program. From
1999 to 2003, total overpayment debt increased from about $1.9 billion to nearly $3 billion.
First, the agency lacks timely data on beneficiaries' earnings and work activity. Second, SSA uses inefficient processes to perform work continuing disability reviews (work CDRs).
Third, the agency relies on potentially inaccurate management information to effectively monitor and oversee some parts of this workload. These weaknesses contributed to some work CDR cases GAO identified that were as much as 7 years old, resulting in potential and established overpayments as large as $105,000 per beneficiary. In addition, GAO found that SSA relies on potentially inaccurate management information to administer its....`snip`


135 posted on 10/23/2004 10:44:04 AM PDT by AuntB (Justify your existence...DO something!)
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To: brianl703

"Arlington County, VA which is just outside of DC should be light blue. "

Same for Southern Oregon, 20% at least.


136 posted on 10/23/2004 10:47:38 AM PDT by AuntB (Justify your existence...DO something!)
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To: Fatalis
This is from Jan 2004, SOTU speech. In this one he says three years. FYI

Today, I ask the Congress to join me in passing new immigration laws that reflect these principles, that meet America's economic needs, and live up to our highest ideals.

I propose a new temporary worker program that will match willing foreign workers with willing American employers, when no Americans can be found to fill the jobs. This program will offer legal status, as temporary workers, to the millions of undocumented men and women now employed in the United States, and to those in foreign countries who seek to participate in the program and have been offered employment here. This new system should be clear and efficient, so employers are able to find workers quickly and simply.

All who participate in the temporary worker program must have a job, or, if not living in the United States, a job offer. The legal status granted by this program will last three years and will be renewable -- but it will have an end. Participants who do not remain employed, who do not follow the rules of the program, or who break the law will not be eligible for continued participation and will be required to return to their home.

Under my proposal, employers have key responsibilities. Employers who extend job offers must first make every reasonable effort to find an American worker for the job at hand. Our government will develop a quick and simple system for employers to search for American workers. Employers must not hire undocumented aliens or temporary workers whose legal status has expired. They must report to the government the temporary workers they hire, and who leave their employ, so that we can keep track of people in the program, and better enforce immigration laws. There must be strong workplace enforcement with tough penalties for anyone, for any employer violating these laws.

Undocumented workers now here will be required to pay a one-time fee to register for the temporary worker program. Those who seek to join the program from abroad, and have complied with our immigration laws, will not have to pay any fee. All participants will be issued a temporary worker card that will allow them to travel back and forth between their home and the United States without fear of being denied re-entry into our country.

This program expects temporary workers to return permanently to their home countries after their period of work in the United States has expired. And there should be financial incentives for them to do so. I will work with foreign governments on a plan to give temporary workers credit, when they enter their own nation's retirement system, for the time they have worked in America. I also support making it easier for temporary workers to contribute a portion of their earnings to tax-preferred savings accounts, money they can collect as they return to their native countries. After all, in many of those countries, a small nest egg is what is necessary to start their own business, or buy some land for their family.

Some temporary workers will make the decision to pursue American citizenship. Those who make this choice will be allowed to apply in the normal way. They will not be given unfair advantage over people who have followed legal procedures from the start. I oppose amnesty, placing undocumented workers on the automatic path to citizenship. Granting amnesty encourages the violation of our laws, and perpetuates illegal immigration. America is a welcoming country, but citizenship must not be the automatic reward for violating the laws of America.

The citizenship line, however, is too long, and our current limits on legal immigration are too low. My administration will work with the Congress to increase the annual number of green cards that can lead to citizenship. Those willing to take the difficult path of citizenship -- the path of work, and patience, and assimilation -- should be welcome in America, like generations of immigrants before them.

In the process of immigration reform, we must also set high expectations for what new citizens should know. An understanding of what it means to be an American is not a formality in the naturalization process, it is essential to full participation in our democracy. My administration will examine the standard of knowledge in the current citizenship test. We must ensure that new citizens know not only the facts of our history, but the ideals that have shaped our history. Every citizen of America has an obligation to learn the values that make us one nation: liberty and civic responsibility, equality under God, and tolerance for others.

This new temporary worker program will bring more than economic benefits to America. Our homeland will be more secure when we can better account for those who enter our country, instead of the current situation in which millions of people are unknown, unknown to the law. Law enforcement will face fewer problems with undocumented workers, and will be better able to focus on the true threats to our nation from criminals and terrorists. And when temporary workers can travel legally and freely, there will be more efficient management of our borders and more effective enforcement against those who pose a danger to our country.

This new system will be more compassionate. Decent, hard-working people will now be protected by labor laws, with the right to change jobs, earn fair wages, and enjoy the same working conditions that the law requires for American workers. Temporary workers will be able to establish their identities by obtaining the legal documents we all take for granted. And they will be able to talk openly to authorities, to report crimes when they are harmed, without the fear of being deported.

The best way, in the long run, to reduce the pressures that create illegal immigration in the first place is to expand economic opportunity among the countries in our neighborhood. In a few days I will go to Mexico for the Special Summit of the Americas, where we will discuss ways to advance free trade, and to fight corruption, and encourage the reforms that lead to prosperity. Real growth and real hope in the nations of our hemisphere will lessen the flow of new immigrants to America when more citizens of other countries are able to achieve their dreams at their own home.

Yet our country has always benefited from the dreams that others have brought here. By working hard for a better life, immigrants contribute to the life of our nation. The temporary worker program I am proposing today represents the best tradition of our society, a society that honors the law, and welcomes the newcomer. This plan will help return order and fairness to our immigration system, and in so doing we will honor our values, by showing our respect for those who work hard and share in the ideals of America.

I note that this idea has evolved over time, but I believe this speech illustrates the full extent of the so called Bush proposal. The other things not in this speech that I spoke about came mostly for the committee hearings that came after this. I think Bush would be happy with nearly any other compromise, as long as it meets his human needs requirement and does not harm businesses or the economy.

137 posted on 10/23/2004 10:56:43 AM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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