Posted on 10/21/2004 9:14:00 PM PDT by Vic from LB
Does anyone realize that if the President wins Iowa and Wisconsin (as trends are beginning to suggest), he can lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Mexico(which W may win) and STILL WIN. This assumes, of course, that the President wins Florida.
This being said, the President may likely win Ohio, Minn and poss OR on his way to a substantial EV win.
Well yes Vic, and you are very astute. Carl Rove was on TV last nite explaining why they are concentration on MN, WI and IA. Rove said they made a mistake last election by overlooking MN and they wouldn't do it again!
"Could"..?
I'm really worried about the RATs doing something the week before the election. I suspect that Karl Rove has also thought of this possibility. I hope he has good spies in the Kerry camp.
I'll see your 320 and raise you 42.
George Soros is going to try to crash the markets.
Don't forget Michigan. Rumor has it a new poll is due out tomorrow that will confirm Bush is doing very well.
On a another thread there was all doom and gloom about how close it will be in Ohio.
We are going to win Ohio, but we do not need it if we pick up a number of Kerry states which seems very likely.
While the Democrats are throwing all their resources at gaining Ohio, Bush is picking off their states and putting them in his column.
I think carl has a trump card of his own to unleash if the rats dare try something this time.
Soros would need a lot more than his fortune to crash our markets.
The reason sKerry-Edwards is dusting off KKKKlintooon to trot out in Philadelphia is to try to stem the tide of conservative black voters from going to Bush. Recent polls show blacks don't trust sKerry, think he is a bag of wind, a liar, and a rich guy not at all in tune with reality.
Four years ago blacks broke 91% to 9% for Gore. Polls suggest right now that blacks are prepared to break 82% to 18% for sKerry. What does that mean?
Since about 12% of the electorate is black, the 9% shift from Democrat to Republican can mean that 0.84% of the vote Kerry is counting on is subtracted from his column and added to Bush's totals. Since about 110 million people voted in 2000, that potentially means about 925,000 fewer votes for Kerry and 925,000 more votes for Bush. That would evaporate the Gorebasm claim of winning the popular vote but losing the election.
Since blacks tend to live in urban centers, such a swing could spell trouble for Kerry-Edwards in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Toledo, etc. (You can read that as New York state, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, etc.)
I'm also wondering how this might play: Kerry announces his "win" early, as announced, but as the night goes on and Bush's lead becomes substantial, Kerry must decide whether to soldier on for his own benefit while putting the kibosh on the Dem party's image for the next election cycle or two, or concede just hours after saying "I won, now bring on the lawsuits!"
With the Governator, Stolen Honor, Swiftie Ads, Ashley's Story, and Bush & Company coming to town, Ohio is our's.
Amen!
When Ohio goes into Bush's column watch the MSM faces, because they then know it is all over.
Look, Soros is rich, but he's nothing compared to one small state's retirement fund. He couldn't crash any market on his own. But he could lose all his money trying...and that's a happy thought.
I actually think something like that is going on with the oil markets.
Another possibility is winning Iowa and New Mexico. That also wins. (assuming holding all states other than OH)
When the Eastern Time Zone polls close and announce their results, we'll know if Kerry is going to be trounced or not. I'm thinking that the New England states will tell the story - if he doesn't get all or almost all of those, he's screwed big time. Just losing in NJ could possibly turn into a cascade of no shows for Kerry all the way to California - making Mondale's results against Reagan look positive.
We can only hope that Kerry's base finds plenty to freebase and stays home navel gazing and drooling on themselves. I'd like to see him completely repudiated, carrying negative coattails to the Congressional races. The ultimate result would be for him to be humiliated to the point that he resigns his Senate seat in utter, total defeat. Best of all, knowing that Soros wasted many millions of dollars on a complete loser while destroying the left in America will have made all of the worries worth it.
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