Posted on 10/21/2004 6:26:54 PM PDT by TortReformer
If one looks at the last 15-20 polls in both states, it seems to me that Iowa is the best possible pickup of a "Gore" state. While the President may very likely pickup Wisconsin, I think that this is a close second... Comments????
Did anyone see the guy on with Brit Hume last night? He was talking about the Democrats having registered a much larger number than was registered in 2000 in Iowa. This is significant since Algore only won by a few thousand. I hope the Republicans have been doing the same.
"But the question is OHIO. I live here and man I'm scared."
If he wins Wisconsin and Iowa he will have 271 EV's even if he loses Ohio and New Hampshire by holding the rest of his red states.
WI=10
IA=7
NM=5
22 possible votes that may switch from 2000...
Just because they're registered doesn't mean they're gonna vote. Work hard and we can bag IA for W!
GOTV!
IA..it's seen Bush break 50% , I haven't seen Bush break 50% in WI. Kerry's going next week to rally the liberal socialists in downtown Madison. However the Farm Bureau endorsement of Bush in WI is big, they've never given one before.
Iowa is theoretically more Republican than Wisconsin. If Bush wins Wisconsin, he probably wins Iowa. If he wins Minnesota, then he wins Wisconsin AND Iowa.
If he wins Michigan or even comes close in that state, then he surely wins Ohio. If he wins New Jersey, then he wins Pennsylvania.
I completely agree with that analysis. IA and WI tend to trend the same.
A week ago I would have said Wisconsin was a much better chance.
Right now it only looks like Wisconsin is an even chance while Iowa is a decent one. Odd change.
My nephew lives in Madison WI, a liberal stronghold. He reports that the liberals are not happy with sKerry and Ketchup Girl and Breck Girl, that there's no fire for them. He also reports that retired people are turned off by sKerry's scare tactics with respect to social security. Some have told him they view sKerry as "an empty suit" and Breck girl as "an ambulance chaser". He says the election in WI will be close, but he thinks Bush will win.
The polls seem to show Bush will win Iowa (assuming no surprises and also assuming the polls are accurate). The same appears to be true of New Mexico.
I hope Bush unleashes Rudi Guiliani on New Jersey and that he appears in Ohio separately and then with the Governator. I also hope he makes a few more trips to Florida. Those are three prizes (NJ 15, OH 20, FL 27) which would all but make it impossible for sKerry to win even if he unleashes his 100,000 lawyers.
If he wins New Jersey, I can go to sleep knowing the world will be safer for 4 more years.
one more thing about Iowa, in 2000 Tom "In Vietnam but Not Really" Harkin was at the top of the state ticket, that ginned up Dem turnout and Bush still only lost by 5K.
This time around, it's Grassley at the top of the state ticket and running strong. I think the top of the state ticket will be the difference this time and Bush wins by 2%.
I think Wisconsin is more likely to support Bush. It's been trending Republican in elections across the board. Western Wisconsin, which was one of Gore's strongest rural areas in 2000, is now leaning towards Bush. By contrast, Iowa's block of committed liberals forms a larger portion of the overall electorate, and the voters who died or moved out of state over the years are more likely to be Republicans.
I still think that Bush could carry both states.
I'll say that Wisconsin looks like the most likely pickup.
Some have pointed out that this Wisconsin Farmers Bureau has endorsed George W Bush, the first time they've endorsed anyone is 84 years.
It seems to me that Kerry had something to do with a farm bill or whatever that favored New England farmers over those of the midwest, so perhaps that has torked off a lot of them.
I spent many years doing Iowa politics.
I believe we're going to get it.
In terms of registrations, there are more R)s than D)s.
In fact, there are more independents than D)s...they place second to Republicans.
It can be very schizo, doing things like electing Grassley and Harkin to the Senate over and over, but the times they are achangin'...
Not worried about OH but I think people are putting way too much stock in winning that state.
WIth FL, Bush has a multitude of options without PA or OH.
Whomever campaigns in WI last will win the state.
but losing OHIO....need OHIO,these are just gravy
I agree. I think the GOP must remain flexible and not put too much stock into any one state, but I still think of OH, PA, FL as the "meat," and WI, IA, MN, NM as the buffers.
My minimum goal would be to win two out of three in the "meat" category, and a couple "buffers."
Kerry's losing big come Nov 2 anyway...
I think FL is the big one. Winning FL gives Bush a ton of options with or without OH or PA.
Losing FL could be catastrophic IMHO.
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