A week ago I would have said Wisconsin was a much better chance.
Right now it only looks like Wisconsin is an even chance while Iowa is a decent one. Odd change.
I'll say that Wisconsin looks like the most likely pickup.
Some have pointed out that this Wisconsin Farmers Bureau has endorsed George W Bush, the first time they've endorsed anyone is 84 years.
It seems to me that Kerry had something to do with a farm bill or whatever that favored New England farmers over those of the midwest, so perhaps that has torked off a lot of them.