Run the Numbers: As Red as Ever (Electoral College Prediction)

The Wall Street Journal Online; Zogby Interactive ^ | 10/19/2004 | The Wall Street Journal Online

[rwilliam]

President Bush took narrow leads in four more states in the days following the third and final presidential debate, giving the president his best showing in our battleground-states analysis since late June.

The latest Zogby Interactive poll puts Sen. John Kerry ahead in nine states and the president up in seven states. Mr. Bush's improvement erases the gains that Mr. Kerry had made just after the first debate on Sept. 30, when a survey found him ahead in all but three of the 16 hotly contested races that we've followed in twice-a-month polls since late May.

Ohio moved back into the president's column in the latest poll, after shifting briefly to Mr. Kerry. And Florida, which Mr. Kerry led by a narrow margin for five straight battleground polls, moved narrowly over to Mr. Bush.

All of the president's leads are slim -- within the polls' margins of error. But if they held up, he would secure a scant Electoral College majority and four more years in the White House.

[rwilliam]

Good news for Bush and bad news for Kerry. An electoral college prediction based even on Zogby Interactive polls shows Bush winning 274-264. Bottom line is that the only change in states from the 2000 election is NH moving to Kerry.

[Galtoid]

Well, NH can just move itself right outta the Union, as far as I'm concerned.
Sorry, Granite State, but you guys are screwy.

[PilloryHillary]

Kerry just has to steal Michigan, Ohio & Florida. With the liberal judges helping, he might pull one or all of them off.

[ambrose]

I don't care whether they are good news for Bush or not -- These are still bogus email polls.

[KJacob]

An electoral college prediction based even on Zogby Interactive polls shows Bush winning 274-264.

Wow! Let's keep the momentum.

[bikepacker67]

Run the Numbers: As Red as Ever

For a moment I was sure this was about the looming deficit.

[11th_VA]

It's not over yet ...

[comebacknewt]

If we hold down RAT fraud in OH and FL, this is a likely outcome.

My prediction since early this year has been W winning 284 - 254 with Kerry gaining NH and W gaining WI and everything else staying the same.

[West Coast Conservative]

WOW! Zogby's internet poll shows Bush leading?!?! Today is definitely an awesome day for Bush!

[Steve_Stifler]

And so the juicing of Zogby's interactive polls begins much sooner than the similar saucing of his "real" telephone poll that we can expect about four days before the election. Makes sense. The online ones were so out of whack with any other poll out there that he had to start sooner to avoid making the alteration look too drastic.

[shield]

more like 320+ for Bush ;o)

[zarf]

For a moment I was sure this was about the looming deficit.

Deficit? Do the the Democrats care about that now?

[JesseJane]

I thought I referred to Kerry's commie roots.

[bikepacker67]

Do the the Democrats care about that now?

NOBODY cares about it... that's kinda the point.

[GoldwaterBooster]

Except for New Hampshire, the latest Zogby interactive map is the same as the 2000 map. But Zogby is most likely to be wrong on Wisconsin and Iowa in my opinion.

[rwilliam]

"I don't care whether they are good news for Bush or not -- These are still bogus email polls." I know, I know... I knew it was coming. :-)

Let's look at trends though by looking at the previous WSJ/Zogby electoral college numbers:

322-216 Kerry on 10/2/04
297-241 Kerry on 9/20/04
307-231 Kerry on 9/7/04
324-214 Kerry on 8/23/04
318-220 Kerry on 8/2/04
291-247 Kerry on 7/26/04
322-205 Kerry on 7/12/04 (11 were a tie)
285-253 Bush on 6/21/04

So, you have to go back to the end of June to find a time that the WSJ/Zogby polls were willing to show Bush as the winner. I'll take whatever influence/news this "bogus" set of polls and related prediction brings. :-)

[zarf]

So, if no one cares who do you vote for?

[Torie]

The numbers in some of the battleground states for this interactive poll are ludicrous. The poll is worthless. Zog taking online responses and just weighting them by his model is not enough to make this poll scientific. The independents, Pubbies and Dems being polled are not randomly selected. They are all self selected volunteers.

In a word, the poll is worthless, except maybe for trending purposes versus its own worthless prior results.

[winner3000]

Who is the moron who originally painted Bush states red? Shouldn't it be the opposite?

[andy58-in-nh]

Well, NH can just move itself right outta the Union, as far as I'm concerned. Sorry, Granite State, but you guys are screwy.

Easy, Big Guy: 'round these parts, them's fightin' words(!)

Seriously, if it weren't for us, the entire Northeast would be as blue as John Kerry's eyes (Or are they hazel? Even John isn't sure. Depends on the day, I guess). The problem is proximity to Massachusetts. We've had an steady stream of immigrants from the People's Republic for 20 years now. Most are like me - refugees who get up every morning and thank Providence that they no longer reside in Kennedy-Kerryland, USA. There are others though, who love the low taxes, open spaces, and uncrowded highways - and can't wait to get rid of them. We Conservative Yankees feel the same way about immigrant Liberals.