RCP Poll Average- Bush Up By 3.6 Percent

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/18/04

[KidGlock]

RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	10/13 - 10/17	48.8%	45.2%	1.7%	Bush +3.6
Zogby (1211 LV)	10/15 - 10/17	45%	45%	1%	TIE
ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)*	10/14 - 10/16	50%	46%	2%	Bush +4
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	52%	44%	1%	Bush +8
TIPP (786 LV)	10/13 - 10/16	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
Time (865 LV w/leaners)	10/14 - 10/15	48%	47%	3%	Bush +1
Newsweek (LV)	10/14 - 10/15	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/11 - 10/14	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)	10/9 - 10/10	48%	49%	1%	Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners)	10/6 - 10/7	46%	45%	4%	Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV)	10/3 - 10/7	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)***	10/4 - 10/6	46%	50%	2%	Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV)	10/4 - 10/5	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV)	10/3 - 10/4	47%	45%	1%	Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)**	10/1 - 10/5	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ARG (800 LV)	10/2 - 10/4	46%	46%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	47%	47%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1036 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	46%	43%	2%	Bush +3
Pew Research (801 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	44%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	49%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV)	9/30 - 10/2	45%	47%	2%	Kerry +2
SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)	9/27 - 10/2	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/27 - 9/30	51%	44%	1%	Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV)	9/25 - 9/28	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)	9/24 - 9/26	52%	44%	3%	Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV)	9/22 - 9/27	45%	45%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (810 LV)	9/23 - 9/26	51%	45%	1%	Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV)	9/22 - 9/26	48%	40%	2%	Bush +8
Time (877 LV)	9/21 - 9/23	48%	42%	5%	Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV)	9/21 - 9/22	46%	42%	1%	Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/20 - 9/23	50%	45%	0%	Bush +5
Marist (630 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	50%	44%	2%	Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	51%	42%	2%	Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV)	9/17 - 9/21	45%	42%	3%	Bush +3

[Henchman]

Ok, so what's with this? Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 247

[RockinRight]

Lookin' good!

[RockinRight]

You mean electoral-vote.com? That site is run by a partisan Democrat. He does try to be fair but his methodologies are suspect.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Bush has been ahead or tied in 35 of the past 38 polls.

[Henchman]

Above chart is not current, already, TIPP October 18 BUSH 49% Traitor 45% +4 Bush

[KidGlock]

RealClearPolitics Electoral Count
Monday, October 18: Bush 254 - Kerry 220
(270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win)
RCP Electoral Map | Battleground State Polls, Averages | Send This Page to a Friend
10/8: Updated Electoral Count Analysis

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10/17: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 220)
10/17: NH - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 254 - Kerry 241)
10/17: WI - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 237)
10/13: MN - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 237)
10/12: OR - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 227)
10/6: ME/CD2 - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 220)
10/6: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 221)
10/6: OH - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 200)
10/5: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 284 - Kerry 200)
Earlier Switches

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Solid Bush (176)	Leaning Bush (78)	Toss Up (64)	Leaning Kerry (67)	Solid Kerry (153)
AL (9)	AR (6)	IA (7)	ME (3)	CA (55)
AK (3)	CO (9)	ME/CD2 (1)	MI (17)	CT (7)
AZ (10)	FL (27)	NM (5)	MN (10)	DE (3)
GA (15)	MO (11)	OH (20)	NH (4)	HI (4)
ID (4)	NV (5)	PA (21)	NJ (15)	IL (21)
IN (11)	NC (15)	WI (10)	OR (7)	MD (10)
KS (6)	WV (5)		WA (11)	MA (12)
KY (8)				NY (31)
LA (9)				RI (4)
MS (6)				VT (3)
MT (3)				DC (3)
NE (5)
ND (3)
OK (7)
SC (8)
SD (3)
TN (11)
TX (34)
UT (5)
VA (13)
WY (3)
RealClearPolitics Electoral Map
Bush Total = 254		Toss Up = 64	Kerry Total = 220

[God luvs America]

means little at this point...it is all about electoral votes.

For what it is worth they had the President at 284 EV two weeks ago but have since moved Wisconsin and Ohio out of his column.

If the Pres can't pull in either Ohio or Pa he needs Wisconsin and Iowa as of now.

[KidGlock]

See #7

[Henchman]

Thanks. Up the last several days, BUSH was ahead in the Electoral Vote Predictor. Now BUSH is behind. Peculiar. If the Pollster is favoring the DEMS, he has caused them to BARF up until now. Now I am just confused as I believe BUSH is even further ahead than the polls show, but not counting Democratic Voter Fraud.

[WOSG]

What's with Zogby ... should call it Zig-Zagby poll.

Confirming the positive trends for Bush since debate #3.

I'll be voting for Bush - early - in Texas today.
Fellow Texans, do the same, please - vote straight GOP ticket!

[Henchman]

In the true Democratic fashion, "Vote early and vote often."

[WOSG]

Actually the national vote means plenty ... kerry cant win the EVs if Bush wins the popular vote by 4 points or more.

Prediction: Bush 53%, Kerry 45%, other 2%
Bush wins 337 EVs, taking all the 'tossups' (OH, PA, WI and IA) and his 'red' states in the above charts, plus NJ and NH.

JMHO.

[God luvs America]

My sentiments are with you and I am praying....

[jackbill]

With the TIPP poll, RCP has Bush at +3.8, not 4.0.

Rasmussen has it tied today at 47, but they aren't included in the RCP avg..

[Yardstick]

...should call it Zig-Zagby poll.

Another FR coinage.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Actually the national vote means plenty ... kerry cant win the EVs if Bush wins the popular vote by 4 points or more.

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According to the Dick Morris 2000 analysis, the statistically virtually insurmountable PV margin is 0.7%

[Henchman]

I think I said Till +4, if that isn't exact enough for you, sorry. I am retired now so I am not as anal retentive.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Thanks for the post. I've been trying to get into RCP all morning and have not been able. It's like FR on debate night - only worse.

[jackbill]

What?