Posted on 10/17/2004 7:23:07 PM PDT by SmithL
The best way to reach the Orange Bowl and play for a national title is to go undefeated.
The new scaled-down Bowl Championship Series standings are set to debut on Monday with seven unbeaten teams remaining after a week that began with twice that many.
While last season proved that one loss doesn't eliminate a team from the national title chase -- co-champions Southern California and LSU lost one -- at this point the teams with one loss need help and can't complain if they're stuck behind the unbeatens in the BCS standings.
``I don't even know how they figure (the BCS standings) out. I couldn't tell you the criteria,'' Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said Sunday. ``It really doesn't make a lot of difference. If you don't win games, you're not going to be there anyway.''
The top four teams in both The Associated Press Top 25 and the coaches poll -- USC, Oklahoma, Auburn and Miami -- are undefeated. The other unbeatens are Wisconsin and those potential BCS busters Utah and Boise State.
With the BCS' formula now relying predominantly on the polls, the top four teams should also hold down the top four spots in the BCS standings.
Last season's BCS mess prompted a change in how the national title matchup is determined.
In case you have forgotten, USC finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in both polls, but third in the BCS standings. That put LSU and Oklahoma, which was thumped by Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, in the Sugar Bowl playing for the BCS title.
The AP media poll voters made USC their national champion after the Trojans won the Rose Bowl. Voters in the coaches poll were obligated to make LSU No. 1 after the Tigers beat Oklahoma.
So the BCS guys went back to work and came up with a formula in which the AP poll counts for one-third of a team's BCS points, the coaches poll counts for a third and an average of six computer rankings makes up the other third. In the past, results from the AP and coaches polls were averaged, then factored in with the other components -- a formula that lessened the significance of the polls.
The Trojans and Sooners have comfortably ranked one and two in both polls all season and in all likelihood will line up the same way in the BCS standings.
That puts USC and Oklahoma in control, with Auburn and Miami lurking.
The Trojans remaining road to the Orange Bowl looks fairly smooth. Road trips to Washington State and Oregon State aren't too scary, and rivals Notre Dame and UCLA don't have enough talent to match USC.
The Sooners' remaining schedule looks tougher with back-to-back road games against Oklahoma State (Oct. 30) and rejuvenated Texas A&M. The Big 12 North is down, so if the Sooners reach the conference title game in Kansas City, their opponent should be manageable. But wasn't that supposed to be the case last year?
Auburn's most formidable remaining opponent -- Georgia -- comes to The Plains on Nov. 13. The Tigers are almost a lock to play in the Southeastern Conference title game, where they could rematch Tennessee or maybe Georgia.
Miami (5-0) is the only unbeaten with more than half of its games left. Road games at North Carolina State and Virginia probably pose the biggest threats to a perfect season.
You can almost hear the complaints coming from fans in Madison, Wisc., already. The Badgers are No. 6 in the AP poll and No. 7 in the ESPN/USA Today poll and will probably find themselves behind Florida State (5-1), No. 5 in each poll, in the first BCS standings.
Wisconsin's remaining schedule looks accommodating with home games against Northwestern and Minnesota and road games against Michigan State and Iowa. The Badgers say it's way too early to start worrying about the BCS.
``Nah,'' tailback Anthony Davis said. ``I just normally worry about getting to practice.''
Then there's Utah of the Mountain West Conference and Boise State from the Western Athletic Conference.
The Utes are ninth in the AP poll and 10th in the coaches poll. The Broncos are 19th and 16th, respectively. The Orange Bowl isn't a realistic destination for either, but perfection could make one of them the first team from a mid-major conference to play in a BCS game.
To get considered for one of those other big-money bowls, Utah and Boise State would have to finish the season in the BCS top 12. A top-six spot would guarantee an invite.
But with nothing but conference games left for both the Utes and Broncos, it'll be tough for them to improve their rankings and add BCS points even when they win.
Ah, yes, BCS time is here. Let the bickering begin.
You Vols and War Eagles can duke it out for 3rd! ;-)
"But, from what I've seen thus far, it is clear to me that of LSU, Oklahoma and 'SC, the Trojans were clearly the real champs last year."
Sorry, this years teams are not last years teams. It is a shame USC didn't come to the dome for a real test.
LOL!!! A "real" test? LSU barely beat Oklahoma and they had just gotten SPANKED! They coaches and sports writers all know who the real national champ was last year. How much can a team change in a year, that it already has two losses with half the season still remaining?
Each team in the top three had a real bad spanking by a team they should have beat.
True, but for SC and LSU those losses were early on. Oklahoma was chalking up huge wins and had no excuse for blowing it at the end of the season, when championship teams are supposed to be peaking. Anyway, it'll be nice if we can get two undefeated teams battling this year. USC can't keep having close games like they have been lately, though. Personally, I didn't like the BCS even before last year's controversy. I like the "sudden death" feel of college ball. Every game matters and one loss means you're out of it. In pro ball, they can have 4 or 5 losses and still have a shot at the Super Bowl. How un-motivating is that?
"How much can a team change in a year,"
Do you really watch college football?
Not all of it -- only the teams/games that interest me. My point is, LSU was struggling from game one this season and has already lost 2 games and we're only halfway through the season. I realize that it is very rare for a college team to repeat as National Champ. But for LSU to have this poor a showing, only 8 months after winning the championship, makes it pretty clear to me that last year was a fluke for them. And, frankly, I think USC is failing to dominate at the moment. I don't think they should be #1 right now, but I hope to see them in contention for #1 by the end of the season.
Your point is legit for this year, but you cant take anything away from LSU last year. They won the coveted BCS trophy, and no one can take it away, even though the BCS and west coast stack AP wish they could. So they change the rules until they get it right. Good Luck, maybe this year.
They should either give extra points for teams from conferences with conference title games or penalize those that don't have one.
They should go ahead and let USC know they are in the title game - their next 4 opponents have a combined 7-17 record, then Notre Dame and UCLA, who are semi-pushovers.
Go Boise St. and Utah!
What happens if 6 teams finish undefeated?
Good point on conference title, then we would have had LSU/USC for the title, no co-champs.
6 unbeaten? there is alot of football left.
Strenghth of schedule should have more of a role. You can't play a lessor schedule while others play top 20's and claim greatness.
Not the trophy
If I'm not mistaken, one of the commentators was Bob Greise. You have to remember where he's from; then you will understand the negative hype....
(He is generally a good guy however. I am a fan of his. He has had a hard life but has made good.)
The BCS remains fatally flawed. Two-thirds of the vote is based upon poll rankings. The same teams appear in the top 25 year end and year out during the pre-season polls despite graduation losses or potential strength of schedule. Therefore, unless one starts as nearly Top 10 or better, they will not get in the title game as it is too hard to climb to the top starting any lower than that.
The Orange Bowl this year, for the title, will go to two of the schools forever ranked in the top 10. No one can break in to steal the spotlight.
Examples: A team like Fla St can lose its first game, but by week # 6, be right back in the mix (in the top 7 now) as it is today again by week # 6 of the season.
A team like Purdue can lose at the end of a game on a fluke play in the 6th week to another good team, and will have no chance to climb back into the picture, despite its ONE loss. Why? Because Purdue it not a traditional top 10 team.
That is in no way a "real bad spanking." And we see that Cal's season last year was no fluke. They are better this year and could end up in the top 20.
Go mama go!
LOL! Not that I'm biased or anything!
LOL! We don't need the trophy! The fact that USC was ranked #1 in all the preseason polls shows that everyone knows who really was the best team last year.
Watch out for Texas A&M. They will challenge OU, and they WILL beat Texas this year. Next year they will be a legit NC contender. Franchione is getting it done in College Station.
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