Now that the "Debating Season" has ended, is the enthusiasm of Kerry supporters fading?

[StJacques]

Now that the "debating season" has concluded and the campaign is entering its final phase, many of you who have been paying attention to the national polls may have noticed that there has been a slight swing back in Bush's favor. I have been watching this closely and there are two points I see represented in these poll numbers which I think indicate that the burst of enthusiasm among Kerry supporters that followed from his performance in the debates has now peaked and we are settling down into a race which, though still tight, gives the clear advantage to President Bush. I believe that in the final analysis we can conclude that John Kerry benefited from giving a focus for "the Bush haters" during the debates, when he could directly confront and, at times, lecture the President in a way that gave voice to the hard core Bush opposition, but that this moment has passed and two factors are now weakening Kerry's candidacy, which are reflected in his poll numbers. The first is that Kerry - and his supporters - can no longer look forward to the opportunity to face President Bush directly and vent their anger. The second, and potentially more damaging for Kerry, is that the large number of anti-war voters who were looking to his candidacy to voice their views now may be reassessing their attitudes, a fact that is reflected in both the internal numbers of these recent polls and in the very slight rise in the percentages you can see for Ralph Nader. In spite of Kerry's repeated insistence that he has had only "one policy" with regard to Iraq, the truth is that he made a choice in September to argue that he would see the occupation through to a successful conclusion and he managed to avoid alienating anti-war voters during the debates by confronting President Bush directly. With the conclusion of the debates, some of these voters will look elsewhere, which must cause Kerry and his advisors great concern.

Before going any further it may help to examine the most recent national polls on the presidential election:

Current National Polls of Likely Voters as of October 17

You can click on the poll names to "pop up" the poll to see for yourself.

Poll	Dates	Bush	Kerry	Nader
ABC News/Washington Post	10/14 - 10/16	50	46	2
Gallup	10/14 - 10/16	52	44	1
Zogby	10/14 - 10/16	46	44	1
Time Magazine	10/14 - 10/15	48	47	3
Newsweek Magazine	10/14 - 10/15	50	44	1
TIPP	10/13 - 10/16	48	45	2

There are two things to note in the above listing of national polls. The first is that all of them give Bush an edge that ranges from one to eight points, depending upon which poll you examine. This is quite different than what we were seeing during the "debating season" when some of the important polls put Kerry ahead or dead even with the President. And I could add that if you were to view the internal numbers on some of these polls you would see that, in direct contrast to what we were witnessing right after the first presidential debate, Kerry's "Likely Voter" percentages are below his "Registered Voter" numbers, which is a complete turnaround from just a couple of weeks ago. Just to mention two of these polls by way of example, both Gallup and Newsweek have Kerry at 46% among "Registered Voters" and 44% among "Likely Voters," while Bush's support increases when you go from "Likely" to "Registered," a trend that is common to most of the other polls as well. Clearly the enthusiasm for Kerry's candidacy has dropped over the last couple of weeks. But the second thing to note about the above numbers is, in my opinion, even bigger. Notice that three of the polls have Ralph Nader above 1% (see text in red). I cannot recall any of the major polls having Nader's numbers above 1% while we were in the midst of the presidential debates - I even remember one Zogby poll had Nader at 0% - and this may be a second indicator of waning support for Kerry. The anti-war voters did not get what they wanted from Kerry in the debates and, even though he may have picked up some undecideds in the middle of the political spectrum by making a strong argument for seeing the war in Iraq through to a successful conclusion - put aside your impressions of the conviction with which you may believe he made his case for a moment - he can no longer hang onto the most committed anti-war voters now that his chance to confront Bush directly has passed. This is a serious obstacle to Kerry's prospects for success right now.

So what does all of this mean for the rest of the campaign? For President Bush it's pretty simple, stay on message and concentrate on turning out the vote. But for Kerry it's different. He must try to reinfuse his candidacy with the enthusiasm it had during the debates and address the "Nader Factor," which is still important in a number of the battleground states. So I expect to see the following from Kerry over the next couple of weeks:

1. Kerry will try to put the debates front-and-center again, possibly even calling for another debate. He won't get it, but he needs to reach for it anyway.

2. Kerry will have to try to convince Nader to drop out and end his candidacy. This may even go so far as a "Kerry - Nader Summit."

3. If Kerry cannot convince Nader to drop out of the race he will have to address domestic issues that are important to Nader voters, such as the Environment, drilling in ANWAR, alternative energy, and more. Even though this will deflect attention from his Iraq policy he must do it.

4. When addressing the issue of Iraq Kerry will have to speak about getting the troops home more than he has recently. We all understand the problems this will create for him but he must try to keep anti-war voters behind him.

5. Kerry will begin to take aim at "vulnerable" groups within Bush's demographic base of support, such as seniors and women, and try to instill fear within them so as to weaken Bush's standing with these voters. This is essentially an attempt to weaken the enthusiasm of Bush's base. We are already seeing this with the privatization of Social Security ads, expect him to return to guns and more in the days to come. This will take him "off message" on Iraq, so it must be recognized as a sign of weakness.

6. Kerry will try to reinvigorate his base by recalling their attention to the Florida recount and crying out that the Republicans want to suppress the vote among African-Americans and others. We've also seen this tactic employed already, but it has the potential to create an even greater backlash among the majority of Americans who found fault with the tactics the Democrats employed to try to win Florida in 2000.

No, we cannot claim that this race is in the bag for Bush by any means. But Kerry is facing problems that are far worse than those confronting the President at this moment. Let's hope it stays that way.

[dufekin]

How could Kerry supporters be enthusiastic? They're hypothetical, deceased, don't speak English, ... These aren't ordinary Americans. They're ineligible to vote--but they vote for Kerry anyway. Or they might be eligible to vote once, but do so more than once. Seven, twenty, hundreds of times--what's the limit?

Some segments might get enthusiastic if they get a beer for each vote, but that's about it.

[beyond the sea]

But Kerry is facing problems that are far worse than those confronting the President at this moment.

Problems? .......... Wait until the truth about his military discharge comes out. (just a guess for an October SURPRISE)

[beyond the sea]

Or they might be eligible to vote once, but do so more than once. Seven, twenty, hundreds of times--what's the limit?

In Ohio they can vote in every precinct in their county if they're sneaky enough!

There is GREAT TROUBLE ahead!

[bust]

Swifties ads run tomorrow on Monday Night Football.

He's transparent now. Keep momentum going!!

[infidel29]

As I said when the question of Freeping the polls came up, it gives demon-rat nerds something to do, to be part of a team and to feel needed. Now they`re useless again and going back to Everquest on-line.

[dfdemar]

When does the Sinclair movie air?

[beyond the sea]

Swifties ads run tomorrow on Monday Night Football.

Are you sure? That's expensive. I hope you are right. Where did you see that?

[Tuxedo]

I'm not sure that will be allowed to stand in Ohio.

[beyond the sea]

Judges are crooked for the most part on that topic in Ohio.

[RetiredArmy]

Major,major differences in Bush and PigfaceKerry:

Bad guys hit us, Bush will shot first, take names later. Kerry will attempt to talk (debate) his way out of it. Bush is action. Kerry is inaction. Bush talks low and carries a big stick. Kerry spews B.S. and has not stick, only a limp noodle.

Poll that I saw in the Idaho Statesman today. Which is most important in this election: Iraq: 38%; Economy 24%; SECURITY: 15%. People more worried about economy and Dem whining about Iraq than the security of our country. Government school educated.

[coconutt2000]

I think we should surprise the Democrats with unwashable ink on election day.

See how they react... "What do you mean we can't vote more than once?" ;-)

[prophetic]

When does the Sinclair movie air?

Can someone PLEASE videotape the movie for me please?

[Signalman]

Problems? .......... Wait until the truth about his military discharge comes out. (just a guess for an October SURPRISE)



As I previously posted, I'm of the opinion that Kerry's original discharge was "less than honorable", subsequently upgraded to "Honorable". But since he hasn't signed the SF180, how could this information be released without violating the Privacy Act (5 USC 552a?

[DaveMSmith]

So, for Kerry to win, he has to keep hate alive.

[JohnEBoy]

I have been saying the same thing ... I think his military discharge will be shown by the Swifts to be well below Honorable. It was only patched up by Jimmy Carter in 1978. The Swifts will bring this out 7 to 10 days before the election ... enough time to sink in to voters minds but not so far ahead that people forget about it. The Bush DUI was brought out 5 days before the election, maybe they'll follow that model.

By the way, I have no information, I'm just guessing.

[MEG33]

Social Security Scare, Voter disenfranchisement scares,

draft scares,

pictures of death in Iraq, stem cell research ban lie,

flu vaccine shortage Bush's fault(forget history and facts)

deficit spending emphasis, class warfare,

dependence on foreign oil(no solution...but will talk about prices)

health care,exaggerations and misleading statements

wrong war ,etc to special audiences. (draft scare is part of this)

[beyond the sea]

I think John O'Neill and the Swifties have it (and some others have it).

[kingattax]

the only real "enthusiasm" for kerry was the MSM, not the democRAT base, as even zogby has correctly pointed out,"Bush has solidified his base, kerry has failed to do so". kerry has NO BROAD DEMOCRAT CORE SUPPORT .This traitor has more than a few problems. ALL the dims have left is voter fraud and LOTS of it. GO GW

[js1138]

The debates didn't do Kerry any long term good because he didn't say anything important. The only thing anyone will remember are his "outing" of Cneney's daughter.

The memorable images from this election can easily be summarized:

Bush = stubborn (but that isn't negative in a war)
Kerry = liberal
Kerry = flipper
Kerry = opportunist