[Drango]

"After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday."

[tagawgrag]

Well Here is the gist-

Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.

Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.



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Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.

Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.

One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal — an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle — a sometimes tricky political straddle.


Nader

With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.

[slowhand520]

This means that he is probably up 5 in the washington Post tracking due out today

[andy58-in-nh]

Link here

Try this.

[Vigilanteman]

After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.

We need to work hard for that extra 1-2%. There is enough fraud in place to overcome a 4 point lead.

[don'tbedenied]

Bush up 4, excellent. Meanwhile Chrissie Mathews is bloviating about the Kerry mo.
The MSM is so yesterday.

[Arkie2]

The poll didn't say what the margin of error was but Bush has started to poll slightly above the margin in some polls.

[Rokke]

What a great find by you. And some good news within that poll for the President. I'm not sure how ABC/WP does their polling, I like the trend.

[BlindGuardian]

Go Bush!

[Chgogal]

Good news! But it aint over until the weight challenged lady sings.

[Vinomori]

Here's the problem the Democrats have......their voters are ant-Bush more than they are pro-Kerry. The problem with that is that a protest vote is far less likely to show up at the polls than someone who is voting "for" someone as the Bush voters are doing. Pat Cadell pointed this out repeatedly, that protest voters make a big impression on pollsters but then don't bother to vote on voting day. So add 5 points to any Bush poll number you see.

[OnAMission]

LOL....Fox News just picked up on this...I wonder if they were looking here.

[SunkenCiv]

:')

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George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.
Election 2004 topics list

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[TheGeezer]

Check this opinion out: Poll average trending toward the president, by Steven Den Beste.

[Drango]

To some extent national data is irrelevant (other than momentum is important). What really counts is what happens in Ohio.

[jimfrommaine]

With all the voter fraud that is going to take place I'm not putting too much stock into the polls. I would love to see the President run ads in urban areas touting his opportunity zones, school vouchers and faith based iniatives. This might help him get 12,13 percent of the African-American vote, more of the Latino vote. And this could go a long way to offsetting the voter fraud which makes this polls meaningless. God bless everyone. Jim

[rushmom]

What's Zogby's problem?

[jackbill]

Bush is looking good at the Iowa Electronic Markets:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

[Jumper]

The beauty of, even a 50-50 split in the voting, is that democratic support is top heavy and wasted in NY and California all the while republicans will win their states by simple thousands or a few tens of thousands.... not the millions in California or NY! Take away NY & CA and Bush would beat win over Kerry by 5-8%. Poor democrats sure hate that electoral college not being a liberal arts swable institution.

[Larry381]

Here's an interesting bit of inside information I learned last night from a relative who works at the local ABC station in NYC. It seems that Mark Halperin, the political director of ABC news is not particularly well liked by some of the outside reporters & producers at ABC news. She doesn't know the reason they dislike him but reports that one ABC national reporter she occasionally interacts with believes that the controversial memo by Halperin was originally leaked by an ABC producer to embarrass him.

Whatever the reason they dislike him it probably not political because ABC national is crawling with more lefties than the DNC.