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Analysis: 8 States May Decide Election (FL, OH, PA, WI, IA, NV, NH, NM)
AP (Yahoo) ^ | 10/16/04 | RON FOURNIER

Posted on 10/16/2004 3:18:24 PM PDT by Cableguy

WASHINGTON - Eight states worth just 99 electoral votes are up for grabs in the closely fought presidential race, with the White House going to whoever conquers this shrinking battlefield.

While another dozen states could come into play if either candidate breaks open the race, President Bush (news - web sites) and Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) entered the campaign homestretch assuming that wouldn't happen. Their strategies focused heavily — but not exclusively — on essentially tied races in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

National polls suggest the race is tight, but a vast majority of the states are overwhelmingly supporting one candidate over the other — leaving a handful to determine who wins the White House.

Taken together, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania account for 68 of the 99 votes from these tossup states. They form a triangle of influence unmatched on the political map.

"Whoever wins two of those three wins the White House — and I hope to God it's my guy," said Democratic consultant Greg Haas of Columbus, Ohio.

With 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes, according to an Associated Press analysis. Sixteen states plus the District of Columbia are with Kerry or leaning his way for 217 electoral votes.

Sixteen days before Election Day, the president needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 99 votes from tossup states to win re-election. Kerry needs 53 to stop him.

The AP analyzed poll data, both public and private, and interviewed analysts in key states in the days since the final debate Wednesday. While public and private polls suggested Bush may be gaining ground on Kerry, the consensus was that the race was remarkably close going into the last two full weeks of campaigning.

A surge by either candidate — 3 or 4 percentage points in national polls — could shift the eight states and the 99 electoral votes to one candidate, putting him on course for a 300-plus electoral romp.

That would put other states on the bubble — Democratic-leaning Minnesota, Michigan, Maine and perhaps even New Jersey if Bush takes off; and GOP-leaning Colorado, West Virginia and Arizona if Kerry gains steam.

Hope springs eternal: Bill Clinton (news - web sites), recovering from heart surgery, is lobbying Kerry to compete in his home state of Arkansas.

Four years ago, Al Gore (news - web sites) won the popular vote but lost the presidency. Bush won 30 states and the electoral chase with one vote to spare — 271. Because of population growth, those states are worth 278 electoral votes Nov. 2.

If Kerry reclaims Gore's states, he would have just 260 votes — 10 short of victory. Where does he get them?

His biggest targets are Florida's 27 votes and Ohio's 20. Bush narrowly won both states in 2000.

"I'm not saying I've been here a lot," Kerry said Saturday in Ohio, "but I'm about to have my mail forwarded here."

Though public polls suggest those races are essentially tied, pollsters and campaign strategists say Kerry appears slightly stronger in Ohio than in Florida. The Buckeye state has lost 237,000 jobs since Bush took office and many voters are growing weary of the state GOP.

In Florida, the economy is relatively strong and Bush's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, controls the levers of power. White House officials worry that a spate of hurricanes, which hit GOP counties hardest, will reduce turnout among the president's backers.

Turnout is one wild card in the race to 270. Hoping to reverse the Democrats' traditional advantage on the ground game, the White House built a national organization with an Amway-like business model that relies on networks of volunteers tightly controlled by Bush's team.

Before Democratic leaders knew who would be their nominee, they created an alliance of liberal interest groups, raised gobs of money and hired thousands of people to knock on doors with Palm Pilots and voter registration forms.

Nobody knows which operation will work best, but the combined efforts dramatically increased voter registration across the country.

Several analysts, including some Bush advisers, said early indications suggest Democrats have signed up the most new voters in the tossup states.

"But you never know how it's going to shake out on Election Day," said Matt Corrigan, political science professor at the University of North Florida. Newly registered voters are usually the least likely to vote, he said.

If the final debate didn't reshape the race, external events might. A calamity in Iraq (news - web sites). A terrorist strike or terror alerts. What if Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) finally turns up?

"I think this is going to be a more event-driven election than virtually any we've seen in years," said Paul Beck, a dean and elections specialist at Ohio State University.

If Kerry fails to shift Ohio or Florida to the Democratic column, there are not enough electoral votes in the two other GOP tossup states to put him at 270. Nevada has just five, New Hampshire four.

"I wouldn't bet a nickel either way" on dead-even Nevada, said University of Las Vegas professor Ted G. Jelen. Kerry hopes to make an issue out of a nuclear waste dump backed by Bush.

The four-term Massachusetts senator is a known quantity in neighboring New Hampshire, and Bush's team is worried about that race.

Outside the tossup category, Kerry has his eye on Hispanic-rich Colorado, which barely leans Bush and has nine electoral votes. A ballot initiative might allow the loser of the state to pick up a portion of those votes, but the measure is trailing in polls and would face legal challenges if approved.

While protecting his turf in four tossup states, Bush is pressing Kerry in four states won by Gore.

Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes and 39 presidential visits (more than any other state), may no longer be Bush's best opportunity.

Democrats worry most about Iowa and Wisconsin — with a combined 17 electoral votes, clutches of conservative Catholics and demographic profiles that turn more Republican every election.

Nearby is Minnesota, a lean-Kerry state that is nonetheless high on Bush's target list. Its rural communities and farthest suburbs are increasingly Republican.

Gore won Iowa by fewer than 5,000 votes, Wisconsin by 5,708 and New Mexico — the fourth Democratic tossup state — by just 366. Hard-fought turf for Kerry to protect.

"I'd rather be on our side of the chess board than theirs," said Rep. Tom Cole (news, bio, voting record), R-Okla. "But folks on both sides of the board are sweating bullets."


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Mexico; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: battleground; gwb2004; polls; purplestates
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To: MNJohnnie

You're absolutely right. Minnesocold will be in Bush column :). No doubt. We know how close the poll is for President Bush. When you see the MSM ignores it that means one thing: It's definitely in play or leaning Bush. If it's in sKerry's column, they wouldn't want to campaign there!!!


21 posted on 10/16/2004 4:14:34 PM PDT by Toidylop (Anybody needs a stinking "global test" besides Kerry?)
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To: okstate

Minnesota, IMO, is not really in play.

There has been ONLY ONE poll all year long showing the President up... and that poll is over a month old and only showed President Bush up 2.

We would be foolish to spend any time in Minnesota when Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio are all clearly closer

Ohio is vital. Minnesota is closer then PA will ever be. Iowa is a lost cause. TOO much hard core labor activists and Harkin is popular even if he is a nut job. Don't know about NM but it is only 5. Flipping MN is a 20 point swing. Knocks 10 off Kerry ADDS 10 to Bush. Sorry but you are focusing far too much on polls that are weighted by registration. Lots of old Democrats here are conservative Democrats. We are the only State with a DEMOCRAT PRO LIFE caucus. They will never admit it to anyone, but a lot of these people are going to the booth and pulling the R lever. Coleman won Minnesota in 2002 by MORE votes then Bush LOST it in 2000. Sorry but you are over fixed on poorly designed polls while I am living it here on the ground. MINNESOTA is in play.


22 posted on 10/16/2004 4:21:18 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: Toidylop
You're absolutely right. Minnesocold will be in Bush column :). No doubt. We know how close the poll is for President Bush. When you see the MSM ignores it that means one thing: It's definitely in play or leaning Bush. If it's in sKerry's column, they wouldn't want to campaign there!!!


Not only that. the Minneapolis DFL paper, the Star Tribune puts it a 5 point lead for Kerry. That is EXACTLY the same margin they gave Mondale in 2002. Take your basic 10 point correction to any DFL Minneapolis Star poll (Subtract 5% from the Dem sample and give it to the Republican) and you are looking at EXACTLY the same margin Coleman won by in 2002. I know it is really really hard for anyone who Remembers 1984 but MINNESOTA is in play.
23 posted on 10/16/2004 4:24:44 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: DefCon
NH is very close.

I am very surprised at Kerry's strength here.

24 posted on 10/16/2004 4:26:37 PM PDT by Jim Noble (FR Iraq policy debate begins 11/3/04. Pass the word.)
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN

I would not be as confident as you seem to be, although I wish i were. Consider this.

Ohio-- RealClear politics has an average of recent polling showing Sen. Kerry with a slight lead in the polls. Couple that with the widespread and ubiquitous voter fraud that the democrats will pull in Ohio, and there is a strong chance that Kerry will take ohio

Florida--While I dont trust polling in this state due to hurricaine damage, there seems to be a consensus that bush has a slight lead.

Wisconsin-- Very close, but in Bush's column

Iowa--Polls are close, a tossup really, but for sake of my argument give Iowa to Kerry

New Mexico-- Tossup as well, but for arguments sake, Bush

New Hampshire- Ther will be an influx of volunteers to try to sway NH, but as of now, Kerry has a lead

Nevada--Bush

Add all this up, and you get...gulp... 269 to 269

The house votes for the president Bush, the Senate votes for the VP, but can we trust Specter, Chafee, McCain, Hegel, Snowe, Collins ect to vote for Cheney?

Let this be a reminder that they will cheat, and that we have to work as hard as we can within the rules to bring victory about


25 posted on 10/16/2004 4:30:31 PM PDT by PintailConservative
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To: Cableguy

Anyone see Beltway Boys tonight? They give OH and WI to Kerry but still have Bush up with 283 EV's. This doesn't make sense. I think their math may be wrong, or they are still giving MI to Bush based on a poll that was taken weeks ago.


26 posted on 10/16/2004 4:38:27 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: Cableguy
Bush is running close in Oregon, not even mentioned, where one poll today has him up 5. He has the momentum. It's hard to see how Kerry scores any points from here unless he has the October Suprise from Hell up his sleeve.
27 posted on 10/16/2004 4:43:08 PM PDT by VadeRetro (A self-reliant conservative citizenry is a better bet than the subjects of an overbearing state. -MS)
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To: TNCMAXQ

Ignore their EV. Bunch of crap. The best analysis is at realclearpolitics or Hotline if you have access.


28 posted on 10/16/2004 4:44:07 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: VadeRetro

That OR poll is probably a fluke. If OR is truly in play, Bushies would be flooding it with ads. See my earlier post:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1247208/posts


29 posted on 10/16/2004 4:45:47 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: PintailConservative
d all this up, and you get...gulp... 269 to 269

Nope because between now and election day you are going to see it flip one way or the other. It will NOT be as close as people say and the trend is too Bush. There is nothing in Kerry's campaign that indicates they are capable of reversing this trend. Bush is out there talking National Security Kerry is talking about FLU VACCINE???? They REALLY are as stupid as we think they are. The Kerry Campaign is just not very good strategically. They are good at the media spin, at the punch/countepunch but really not very good Strategic campaigners. As much as it pains me to agree with the Kerry clown that wrote this, Ron Fouriner, if the Bush trend holds at 3-5 points Nationally, the close states will flip and you will see a 300 plus electoral vote count for Bush. It all comes down to turn out and I got to tell you, Republicans are going to walk thru fire and ice to vote this year. Kerry has SCARED people so bad with his quintessential 1970s mindset that they will be there even if their dying breath is spent pulling the lever for W.
30 posted on 10/16/2004 4:49:18 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: All

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108322/


The Leftist at Slate are calling it for Bush.


31 posted on 10/16/2004 4:52:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: MNJohnnie

Florida is scary! The Rats have the southern part locked up with busing people, and illegals and all the rest and 1000s of lawyers. It gives me a bit of comfort though that they tried to pull the same thing with Jeb in 2002 and he won convincgly. Also, in the senate primaries, the Republican contenders put together had more votes (about 50-60k) than the democratic contenders and I imagine that didnt include a lot of the military vote who probably didnt care about the senate primaries!


32 posted on 10/16/2004 5:00:27 PM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: Cableguy

Did you read that little gem that " Clinton wants Kerry to campaign in Arkansas"..guess Bubba wants Kerry to waste his time..and lose.


33 posted on 10/16/2004 5:03:33 PM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050

Good catch. If Kerry goes down there, NRA and Swift Vets would blow both of them out of the water.


34 posted on 10/16/2004 5:06:03 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: VadeRetro

That OR poll is from Riley Research, which has historically always favored Republicans by several points.


35 posted on 10/16/2004 5:09:02 PM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Ha, Slate says Jersey is tied.
I don't believe it, and neither do any of the other seven analysts that I read daily.


36 posted on 10/16/2004 5:16:44 PM PDT by DefCon
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To: Jim Noble

Just 2 weeks to go but a lot can happen in 2 weeks.
If it were tomorrow, it would all hinge on Ohio.


37 posted on 10/16/2004 5:18:28 PM PDT by DefCon
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To: DefCon
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I bet your "7 analysts" are the same set of News Media geniuses that were predicting the Democrats would retain control of the US Senate in 2002. But in this case I agree. New Jersey is a rotten boughs. The Democratic Machine is too corrupt and too deeply entrenched. There is no way Bush will be allowed to carry NJ no matter how blatant the Democrat fraud has to be in NJ.
38 posted on 10/16/2004 5:27:33 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: DefCon

Just 2 weeks to go but a lot can happen in 2 weeks.
If it were tomorrow, it would all hinge on Ohio.

Yep. Ohio is the KEY. Bush carrys Ohio and it is all over but for the lawsuits.


39 posted on 10/16/2004 5:28:40 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: Radix
If New Jersey goes for Bush, we can all retire early on election night.

No way. I'm gonna celebrate all night.

I think I'll visit our friends at DUh and rub it in. Any one else in?

40 posted on 10/16/2004 5:31:01 PM PDT by AlGone2001 (If liberals must lie to advance their agenda, why is liberalism good for me?)
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