Bush Up By 5 in Oregon (Bush 48-Kerry 43???)

Real Clear Politics ^

[Lunatic Fringe]

Report in PDF format

Some other items:

Wu 58%, Ameri 36%

Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%

Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%

[Jeff Head]

Looks like things may be turning your way!

[counterpunch]

Just wait. The Kerry dead cat bounce is over, and his freefall begins now.

[chimera]

Unbelievable if true. Picking off even one of those left coast states would have to be considered an upset.

[conservativepoet]

Are you kidding???????

[Publius]

It was very tight in Oregon in 2000. This might be real.

[traderrob6]

It's a Riley poll....heard of them but don't know much more

[ken5050]

If this is true, then Patty Murray is in big trouble next door...

[mattdono]

Um...it doesn't look like the RCP average is looking that way....

Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread
RCP Average | 10/9-10/13	-	-	45.3	48.3	1.5	Kerry +3.0

What part of Kerry +3.0 was confusing?

[TheBigB]

Sam?? =O

[Question Liberal Authority]

ARG and SurveyUSA are skewed way left.

This seems plausible, considering that Bush's first stop after the debate was Oregon.

[rwfromkansas]

I find this VERY hard to believe.

But, if we win Oregon, we win the election because it would mean other liberal states would have to be close as well.

[VOA]

Is this the Oregon that is attached to the continental part of the USA?

[traderrob6]

It's a Riley poll just out....RCP average is a average of all polls....understand???

[RockinRight]

The poll showing W up is Riley Research. I've never even heard of them.

However, I do think Oregon is in play.

[RWR8189]

5% MoE

[Clump]

I'm not sure if this is the state of the race in Oregon, but the data from the last 24 hours shows a monumental collapse for the sKerry campaign. If it is a Bush landslide, Oregon will be one of the blue states to turn red.

[Question Liberal Authority]

RCP is an average of the last 3 polls. The latest poll in the RCP Oregon average (Riley) has Bush up 5. The other 2 are by left-skewed organizations that produced some very inaccurate predictions in 2002 Senate races.

[Woogit]

The polls against same sex marriage up there could make this poll accurate. Lord, I pray it is true and that we will see sKerry drop in the polls like a rock in a pond!

[Brad’s Gramma]

Real Clear Politics has been, consistently, a very conservative, true-to-form web site. I'd trust him over Zogby...Hugh Hewitt has him on his show a lot.