ARG and SurveyUSA are skewed way left.
This seems plausible, considering that Bush's first stop after the debate was Oregon.
ARG is skewed, but Survey USA has generally been a pretty good pollster.
I think the first stop after the debate was Las Vegas and Reno and then OR. That's what GWB told us Wednesday night at Bank One Ballpark. It was hard to hear, though, so I may be wrong. :)
That's what I was thinking. Could be closer than ARG, which I'm beginning to laugh at, says. Well, if it costs the Dems, keep on it Mr. Bush. Boy it would be nice to get some 'blue' states in a win.
A.M. could this be BREAKING or at least FRONT PAGE please, it is HUGE
Not only is the Riley poll one of the most accurate, but it was taken Oct 9-13.
That's BEFORE Bush kicked Kerry's butt in the 3rd debate, and
That's BEFORE Bush made a 2-DAY visit to OREGON
And guess what... EVERYONE starts voting statewide - TODAY or TOMORROW depending on the U.S. mail.
About the same time that Riley last polled Oregon, they found Bush ahead by +1
Shortly after THAT, Mason Dixon, one of the MOST restpected
pollsters found Bush ahead by +4
Most of the other pollsters in oregon re-weighted their data based
on the 2000 election, making it seriously in error.