In my column on 29 August, I laid down the following markers: 1) Bush over Kerry by 10% margin, with a "landslide" win in the Electoral College (I did not put a number on the E. C.); 2) Republicans pick up 2 Senators; Republicans pick up 13 Representatives; Republicans pick up 1 Governor; Republicans pick up 131 state legislators. Lastly I said that if my predictions are off, they will be "low."
Furthermore, when the election is examined in retrospect, I believe the fundamental reason for Kerry's defeat will trace to his marketing decision to focus on his "honorable" service in Vietnam. As I put in writing, Kerry's defeat was sealed when he sat down after giving his acceptance speech in Boston, beginning with that sloppy salute and that badly chosen focus, "John Kerry, reporting for duty."
I thought that then. I think that now. And I conclude it could not have happened to a more deserving guy.
Congressman Billybob
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Yes! Put PA in the red column -- we Bush/Cheney volunteers are working hard to make it so!
I'm calling it for Bush too, Jeff, but I would swap Minnesota for Iowa, lose PA and maybe gain NM. Good job on the map.
We can MAKE it happen!! Let's ROLL!!
Pennsylvania is optimistic.
Early voting begins here in Texas Monday morning.I plan to be there at or shortly after 8 a.m. to vote for Dubya !
Go, Dubya, go !!!
Hear the Donkey Bray
(RealPlayer)
[Expletive deleted] !!!
Nice, but in 2000, Bush lost NM by less than 400 votes. How do you figure that he hasn't converted enough people, after his 4 year showing, to prevail in 2004? Or how do you figure that Kerry will do better in NM than Al Gore did?
FL and PA are to be expected. Ohio will be the big indicator.
Which means, that before the time the polls close in CA, OR, and WA the democRATS will not bother to get out and vote because it will be over and they will be discouraged anyway. And Bush could conceivably end up carrying CA, WA, and OR.
Kerry's only hope is to keep the eastern and central time zone states as close as possible. But I don't think that will happen. I look for some big surprises on the east coast that is going to set the trend for a major victory for Bush.
I think Pennsylvania is very, very questionable due to the inner-city fraud machines, but I think Bush has a good shot at stealing Oregon. Otherwise, your call looks good.
I think the rout will be even worse personally.
for a number of reasons. I think any state that has Kerry up by a couple is probably going t oend up going Bush. There are a large number of reasons for it but some of the main factors are these. Bush's support is solid and frankly reaches levels I havent ever seen before in anyone. IN arizona the other day he had 40,000 people show up for the rally. Dayton has got one planned I think for this weekend and they are expecting 90,000+ Kerry is filling up High Scool Cafeteria's while Bush is filling up stadiums and convention centers. The difference in the intensity of support is just Huge. You couple that with polls that show that even in places like San Francisco 67% of voters think Bush is gonna win. IN Iowa something like 38% of kerry supporters believe Bush will win etc etc. You put these two factors togther what you get is alot of people staying home on election day for the opposition. People arent gonna go out and stand in line for a candidate they dont support and dont even think will win. Period. Not only that..this thing is gonna be over by about 8:30 If Kerry doesnt win Florida or Ohio (and he wont) its over. People in the west coast will know that. The election will be called for Bush 2 hours before the polls even close in California. Close states like Orgegan New mexico etc will go Bush as dems go home but Bush people clamor to get in on the vicotry...and yes you might even see California go Bush.
That is my personal call. I think this is going to end up being a blow out of monumental proportions...not historic to be certain but definately big.
This might be a dumb question but oh well: how do I find out where my polling place is? I wasn't going to vote but Bush needs all the support he can get and I finally got my voter regristration card in the mail. Help!
How's that?
A very good and hopeful guess. I've been saying 60-30-10 for a year now. Your 60-40 electoral is on the money.
Oh boy, I hope I'm drinking a toast to you and your prediction on election night!
