10 Reasons to Predict a Bush Win (Long, but a Good Read!)

Jay Cost's Horserace Blog ^ | 10/14/04 | Jay Cost

[TonyInOhio]

What county is that?

Putnam County. President Bush won 73% of the vote here in 2000.

[Jaidyn]

Yikes, You gave the idiot a plug! I don't listen to him intentionally. I listen to Glen Beck until noon and then, switch to Ft. Wayne and listen to Rush, when I'm in my car. Sometimes, Shreefer just creeps in on you. How people believe him is beyond me, but I suppose they are lonely or feel like super stars when they call his show.

[The Hound Passer]

Yep, but it leaves out one very big and unknown ?: the effect of undiscovered voter fraud. We've already heard reports of cities having more registered voters than there are citizens of legal voting age. We've read where a judge in NM has said voters need not show ID when going to polls. There is so much stench already.

[AaronInCarolina]

It boils down to this. George W. Bush has to hold Ohio.

Not true by any means! Look at the electoral map at RealClearPolitics. Bush can easily trade Ohio for the combination of Iowa and Wisconsin. The trade results in a net loss of 3 EV's, but since the electoral map changed due to re-districting, he can take the 3 EV loss and still win.

[Think free or die]

I hope this is right. I'm helping with GOTV in PA, and I've got my yard signs and bumper sticker. Absent fraud, I think Bush is in good shape. Fraud is a very big concern. If Kerry wins this by fraud, I'm very afraid for America.

[Martins kid]

Boycott the sponsors and let them know

[Heart of Georgia]

New Mexico went to Gore after Bush won it, but only after a ballot box was "found" that mysteriously materialized and - wonder-of-wonders - contained just enough socialist votes to tip it back to Gore.

I've been trying to remember which state that was. I recalled it being out west. I thought it was New Mexico but wasn't positive. Thanks for confirming.

[SunkenCiv]

Voter fraud may be a factor, may play a role, etc, here and there, but that's the only thing Kerry has going for him. He's a liar, a creep, a crook, a traitor.

Part of the suspiciously high number of ballots ordered in (for example) Milwaukee has to do with local laws (in this example, it's been legal for years to register to vote at the polls -- strange to have that still on the books in this era of a broadband wired society); a very high voter turnout is expected everywhere. Here in Grand Rapids Michigan we've used the computer punch card ballot with numbered holes for a good while yet.

We can't be complacent, but all we have to do is show up on Election Day, and make sure all our fellow conservatives do also. Dare I say, "think globally, act locally." ;')

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

Election 2004 threads on FR

[SunkenCiv]

click any map for the source website (Dim-run):

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October 14

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October 15

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October 16 (watch this space)

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[SunkenCiv]

1998 was the year of lowest turnout in recent decades, according to another webpage I just visited looking for this:

from http://www.fairvote.org/dubdem/turnout.htm

Voter Turnout, 2002

Voter Turnout: The percentage of the voting eligible population which voted in a state's U.S. House elections (as opposed to statewide and presidential elections).  We use population estimates by Professor Michael McDonald at George Mason University.  His figures estimate the number of voting age adults who are eligible to vote, which means they excludes non-citizens and ex-felons in states that disenfranchise them.

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

State  South Dakota   Minnesota Alaska Maine Wyoming North Dakota  Montana Vermont Oregon New Hampshire Iowa Missouri Maryland Colorado Kansas Michigan Rhode Island Idaho Wisconsin Hawaii Connecticut Oklahoma Washington Massachusetts    Delaware

Turnout   59.6%   58.8%   51.9%   49.7%   49.1%   48.3%   48.2%   47.3%   46.7%   46.2%   45.5%   43.4%   41.4%   41.2%   41.2%   41.1%   41.1%   41.1%   40.0%   39.1%   39.0%   38.4%   38.3%   37.5%   37.5%

Rank 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

State  Alabama Nebraska Ohio Illinois North Carolina Utah Kentucky Tennessee Louisiana Arkansas Pennsylvania Indiana New Mexico Mississippi South Carolina New Jersey Nevada Georgia Arizona Florida* West Virginia California Virginia Texas New York

Turnout 37.3% 37.1% 37.0% 36.7% 35.6% 35.1% 34.8% 34.6% 34.5% 33.9% 33.8% 33.2% 32.6% 31.8% 31.2% 31.2% 31.0% 30.2% 30.2% 29.4% 28.0% 28.0% 27.4% 27.4% 26.4%

 

*In Florida, candidates in uncontested races did not appear on the ballot, so voters were not able to cast votes in congressional races in 6 out of the 25 races.

[Demboy]

His ratings are false. they droped so fast in such a short time that it was compleatly dismissed because a radio show could go off the air and the ratings wouldnt drop that fast. WIMA knows this or they would have kicked him off the air. DUH!



and your a douche, honestly if you dont listen to his show how are you supose to know the sponsers? and really isnt a guy allowed to have an opinion?

saying bush is going to be reelected is nonsense, so is saying kerry is going to be reelected because its so close no one knows. you have no idea at all. no one does. not even bush himself. Unless he wants to screw up the counting again. And I don't want to see what the people do if that happens again.
I think shreefer is radical but I also think sometimes thats good.