Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

I'm talking about all the posts from other places constantly posted here, not only one specific time, I'd appreciate if you didn't like something I posted to put it in pm ok?

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Bin Laden to states:
Don't vote for Bush
Speech {{{mistranslated}}} by most media as threat against foreign countries

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41211

Kerry and the terrorists
http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41214

John Kerry Promises Young People The Truth, Talks Eminem At Campaign Stop
http://www.mtv.com/chooseorlose/headlines/news.jhtml?id=1493314

Kerry is lauding Emiem's hateful anti-Bush song and on MTV, here are the lyrics:

All the people up top on the side and the middle
Come together lets all bomb and swamp just a little
Just let it gradually build from the front to the back
All you can see is a sea of people some white and some black
Don't matter what color, all that matters we gathered together
To celebrate for the same cause don't matter the weather
If it rains let it rain, yea the wetter the better
They ain't gonna stop us they can't, we stronger now more than ever
They tell us no we say yea, they tell us stop we say go
Rebel with a rebel yell, raise hell we gonna let em know
Stomp, push, shove, mush, F--- Bush, until they bring our troops home (c'mon)

Imagine it pouring, it's raining down on us
Mosh pits outside the oval office
Someone's tryina tell us something,
Maybe this is god just sayin' we're responsible
For this monster, this coward,
That we have empowered
This is Bin Laden, look at his head noddin'
How could we allow something like this without pumping our fists
Now this is our final hour
Let me be the voice in your strength and your choice
Let me simplify the rhyme just to amplify the noise
Try to amplify the times it, and multiply by six...
Teen million people, Are equal at this high pitch
Maybe we can reach alqueda through my speech
Let the president answer a higher anarchy

Strap him with an Ak-47, let him go, fight his own war
Let him impress daddy that way
No more blood for oil, we got our own battles to fight on our own soil
No more psychological warfare, to trick us to thinking that we ain't loyal
If we don't serve our own country, we're patronizing a hero
Look in his eyes its all lies
The stars and stripes, they've been swiped, washed out and wiped
And replaced with his own face, Mosh now or die
If I get sniped tonight you know why,
Cause I told you to fight.

And as we proceed,
To Mosh through this desert storm,
In these closing statements, if they should argue
Let us beg to differ
As we set aside our differences
And assemble our own army
To disarm this Weapon of Mass Destruction
That we call our President, for the present
And Mosh for the future of our next generation
To speak and be heard
Mr. President, Mr. Senator
Do you guy's hear us...hear us...[laughing]
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/eminem/mosh.html

disregard old news

This tape tells me that UBL has been rendered inept by
George Bush and our military. IMO, this the only way he
has left to show to world just how powerful (NOT) he is.

Don't you think he would have rather bombed us if he could?

I have finally obtained full transcripts of Bin Ladin's message in both English and Arabic, and it is now clear that he has issued a direct threat to residents of states that vote for Bush.

My husband and I will also be voting for GWB tomorrow and praying for his return as President (and Laura as First Lady), along with the survival of our country as we do it. We will also be praying that the Democrats can "move-on" to planning for their next elections.

I can't wait to vote!

I didn't mean to step on your toes. I was afraid we were going to spend the day talking about how the tapes 'could be' hoaxes. I'm sorry.

Yup, they want Kerry - check 2nd paragraph from bottom

Hmmm, think your "Managing Fear and Anxiety...." article would apply to election jitters?

I can't wait either. I think I will go as soon as the poles
open. This is the first year out of the past 11 that me and
dryman haven't spent our anniversary working the poles.

Wish I knew.

Thanks for the links.

I'll be lost for hours now, reading.

Please refresh our memories

In the OBL tape, the use of Sweden and Manhattan stand out.

From OBL:I say to you that security is an indispensable pillar of human life and that free men do not forfeit their security, contrary to Bush's claim that we hate freedom. If so, then let him explain to us why we don't strike for example – Sweden?

In the thread "http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1265110/posts" with the article title (US Warns of 'New Terror Threat' (Europe!) ) there is speculation that the Sweden reference is a Go Code for the date 11/2. Just as 911 is the US emergency phone number and can be written 9/11, perhaps the Swedish emergency phone number of 112 is the hidden code for a 11/2 operation.

From OBL: I address these words to you regarding the optimal manner of avoiding another Manhattan

This is generally taken to mean the Twin Towers attack, but what if the reference is really an illusion to the "Manhattan Project", which of course, was the code word for the nuclear bomb of WWII. There have been great speculation that there are suitcase or dirty bombs in the hands of terrorists. He did not say 911, or the Towers, or the Pentagon, but Manhattan.

The words chosen by OBL are carefully scripted. However, the speculation and attempts to decipher tthe thread is guesswork.

My son is in Riga, Latvia right now. These warnings about the Baltic States have me quite concerned. The upside...he will not be in any major shopping areas. The downside.....he will be in transportation hubs tomorrow.

Speaking of ObL's family, here's a photo that hasn't been around in a while, in case it's of interest to anyone here. Taken in Switzerland, with many of his siblings, he's the one circled.

Terrorism Summary 11/01/04

Since the last summary two AQ video tapes have been released and evaluated by almost everyone under the sun. I've encountered some interesting views on the OBL tape. Is an attack pending, I believe so but just when is the 50 million dollar question. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
11/01/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04

1. Attack threat windows
11/01/04 Primary Window: We are now 1 days away from election day. Although the possibility for an attack on Nov 2 is very high, I think the probability of attack is even higher Nov 3-5, especially if Bush wins.

10/23/04 Secondary window: This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.

2. Attack Indicators
11/01/04 I keep reading mixed signals regarding Jihadi associated traffic and chatter. The release of the two AQ tapes has increased traffic in some realms, however, some Jihadi websites have been taken down. Based upon the information I've seen it is hard to quantify the volume of real traffic that would be indicative of a potential attack.

10/29/04 For months, many have believed that the emergence of a Bin Laden message would signal an impending attack. Official reaction below the radar suggests that government officials are dealing with this possibility with seriousness and an urgency . Some have looked for ‘hidden messages’ whereas I (Godzilla) believe that the simple production of the video is in itself the message.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Al-Qa'ida
11/01/04 The ABC and OBL tapes are the primary focus of the weekend. I want to try to summarize some of the key points and observations that I’ve gleaned from my reading of the available transcripts and commentary by others.

The ABC News Tape
When Drudge forced ABC on October 28th to announce that it had this tape, the Jihadi chat sites were caught completely flat footed and much of the early chatter was speculation about what was on the tape. After initial speculation, it is generally considered to be authentic, although there is some dissention to that. This is the first Sahab production to be distributed outside of Al-Jazera. Apparently ABC received the tape from a source in Pakistan.

The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11. "The streets will run with blood," and "America will mourn in silence" because they will be unable to count the number of the dead. Further claims: America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda.

Based upon review of the tape, Intelligence officials believe:
1. The video tape appears to be from al-Qaeda's media liaison organization. It has a banner crediting the Sahab Production Committee. The speaker refers to Bin Ladin and Zawahiri as "our leaders" and praises the 11 September attacks.
2. The video appears to have been made in the past several months - at least as recently as late summer 2004 - based on the speaker's discussion of the conflict in Darfur, the 9/11 Commission and other recent events.
3. Individual is college educated, either American born or raised in the U.S. He speaks English well.

There are abnormalities associated with the tape and as discussion has progressed throughout Thursday, and particularly when portions of the tape were released to / played by the media, additional ones were identified:

1. Sahab Productions have exclusively distributed their videos to Al-Jazera TV in the past.
2. The speaker uses only English, except for a few places where he quotes the Quran.
3. The speaker displays a heavy breathing pattern that could either be nervousness or meth induced.
4. Jihadi chat rooms were caught completly by suprise and appeared baffled, uncertain as to its contents. It has been suggested by Jill St. Clair that this message was from the operational group to OBL stating that the plan is ready for the final GO signal, thus under substantial operational security.

The U.S. is actively seeking to identify the individual. Adam Gadhan - aka Adam Pearlman remains the chief candidate but another still unknown individual may be possible. However, because most of the face, except for the eyes, is covered, identification is difficult.

Osama bin Laden Tape
By far the most interest was generated when OBL released a video tape to Al-Jazera the following day, October 29th. It was the first footage of the al Qaeda leader to surface in more than a year. The video showed bin Laden in traditional white robes, a turban and a cloak reading from papers and standing in front of a plain, brown cloth background. OBL directly admitting for the first time that he carried out the Sept. 11 attacks and promising to outline "the best way to avoid another Manhattan. In addition to threats against the President, OBL uses this tape to once again justify in his eyes his acts of terror against the US and the rest of the west. In it, he states that the same reasons he attacked the US on 911 are still applicable today, further justifying any future strike. It is widely accepted that this is an authentic tape recently made, based upon comments OBL makes.

A conspicuous aspect of the tape is the absence of common Islamist themes that are relevant to the month of Ramadan, which for fundamentalists like bin Laden is the month of Jihad and martyrdom. Noticeably absent from the Al-Jazeera tape was his usual appearance with a weapon, and more importantly the absence of references to Jihad, martyrdom, the Koran, the Hadith (Islamic tradition), Crusaders, Jews, and the legacy of the Prophet Muhammad on the duty to wage Jihad against the infidels.
http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SA1404

Clearly, one of the major purposes of the tape was to inject himself into the national election. According to MEMRI, another interesting aspect of the speech is the fact that “ while bin Laden made his specific threat to each U.S. state, he also offered an election deal to the American voters, attempting to influence the election by these means rather than influencing it through terrorist attacks. This peace offer is a theme that follows up on his April speech directed to Europe, in which he offered a truce. The Islamist website Al-Islah explains: "Some people ask 'what's new in this tape?' [The answer is that] this tape is the second of its kind, after the previous tape of the Sheikh [Osama bin Laden], in which he offered a truce to the Europeans a few months ago, and it is a completion of this move, and it brings together the complementary elements of politics and religion, political savvy and force, the sword and justice. The Sheikh reminds the West in this tape of the great Islamic civilization and pure Islamic religion, and of Islamic justice..." (http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SA1404).

Some interesting secondary observations were made once more of the 18 minute tape was transcribed. The New York Post notes ”Osama bin Laden doesn't seem nearly so cocky in the unedited version of a videotape aired on al-Jazeera, complaining that the manhunt against him has hampered al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden's newest tape may have thrust him to the forefront of the presidential election, but what was not seen was the cave-dwelling terror lord talking about the setbacks al Qaeda has faced in recent months.
Officials said that in the 18-minute long tape - of which only six minutes were aired on the al-Jazeera Arab television network in the Middle East on Friday - bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.
On the tape, bin Laden also says his terror organization has been hurt by the U.S. military's unrelenting manhunt for him and his cohorts on the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Some noted that it appeared that OBL was saying that he would withold any attacks until after the elections and possible opened the possibility of conducting talks with a non-Bush administration. This was caught by MEMRI, noting “For the followers of the Al-Qa'ida ideology, this speech sends a regressive and defeatist message of surrender, as seen in the move from solely using Jihad warfare to a mixed strategy of threats combined with truce offers and election deals (http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SA1404). This has been a common strategy employed most recently by Al-Sadr in Iraq. The time of negotiation permit them to reorganize and reinforce their forces for the moment they choose to break any cease fire / negotiations. If this observation is true, then the WOT is having an impact.

Finally, some have observed that the changes in OBL’s appearance and message may reflect that he views himself as the Mahdi, a messianic figure who will bring back the Caliphate in the Middle east, and then to bring on the Islamic end times for the rest of the world. If this is the case, then it is clear that he is mentally unstable and a megalomaniac.

The Tale of the Tapes
It appears that the two tapes are associated with each other. The ABC tape telling OBL that all is ready and the OBL tape signaling to go ahead with final orders. Both tapes hint that the next attack will occur sometime after the election, dangling a carrot in an effort to sway voters.
The second thing is that the ABC tape indicates that there are new leaders to take Atta’s place. The choice of an English-speaking terrorist was one to build terror here as ‘one of us’, moving freely as well as bringing the threats made closer to home.
Finally, to everyone’s disappointment OBL’s dead carcass isn’t rotting away in some mountain cave in Afghanistan. However, the changes in his presentation and message I think tell us that he thinks he can sway the vote by his simple presence. Secondly, it appears that AQ has taken some serious hits, especially if OBL is offering some kind of truce. I don’t think he can afford to be embarrassed again as he was during the Afghan elections, so for simple face value he is likely to strike very soon after the elections, probably before the end of the week.

Iraq
11/1/04 As the US military prepares for an all-out assault on Fallujah, postings on Islamic Insurgent Websites this evening, a few militants are threatening to use Chemical Weapons in an attack on US Forces.

Spain
10/29/04 Spanish police have arrested 13 more suspected Islamic extremists in connection with an alleged plot to bomb the country's national court. Eight of the new arrests were made late Thursday in Madrid, Cadiz and Valencia while five suspects were already in custody. They bring to 30 the number of arrests in connection with the alleged plot.
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=81&story_id=13393&name=13+Islamic+radicals+arrested+for+bomb+plot+

Afghanistan
10/31/04 Taliban terrorists have kidnapped several UN elections workers and have threatened to kill them if Coalition forces do not leave the country.

Israel
11/1/04 An ailing Yasser Arafat entered a fourth day of emergency treatment Monday at a French military hospital specializing in blood disorders, but the cause of his precipitous decline in health remained unexplained.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137194,00.html
Additional tests for poisoning are also reportedly being conducted. Arafat became ill while eat soup.

China
11/1/04 Ethnic clashes between majority Han Chinese and Hui Muslims left almost 150 people dead and forced the authorities to declare martial law in a section of Henan Province in central China, journalists and witnesses in the region said Sunday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/01/international/asia/01china.html

Russia
10/30/04 Spokespeople for the operative headquarters of the antiterrorist operation in Northern Caucasus said the police had found a landmine planted in the soil and ready for explosion.
It was made out of an empty water tank containing many metallic fragments, stuffed with nine kilograms of hexogen and fitted out with a remote-control detonator.

10/29/04 The head of Russia's FSB security service says that more than 80 suicide attackers have been trained on foreign soil to carry out attacks on Russia.

Saudi Arabia
10/29/04 While the United States on Tuesday repeated its advice that private US citizens leave Saudi Arabia, the German embassy in Riyadh has sounded alarm that car bombs could hit commercial centres in the kingdom. The embassy has advised an estimated 1,400 Germans living in the kingdom to avoid visiting commercial centres.
The warning was based on information received by the German embassy on Tuesday, that there was a risk of planned terrorist attacks in the Kingdom.
http://www.dawn.com/2004/10/29/top14.htm

Iran
10/29/04 Iran's nearly completed facility in Isfahan is regarded as vital for the production of nuclear weapons. A senior Iranian official said Teheran was nearing completion of the uranium conversion facility. The facility is designed to convert uranium ore, or yellowcake, into uranium hexafluoride, a key component in the process of enriching uranium to produce nuclear weapons. Currently, the Isfahan uranium conversion facility is 70 percent operational.

England
10/30/04 Intelligence services have warned military personnel to be on heightened guard against possible terrorist attacks, the Sunday Telegraph reported.
The report said there was a "real" threat to servicemen and advised them not to wear uniform in public "especially in the vicinity of home or while travelling on public transport," the Telegraph said. The risk is "more pertinent in London", the paper quoted the document as saying.

Latvia'
Latvia's security services have been on high alert for the past week after receiving intelligence reports from three allies of a possible terrorist strike against the tiny Baltic nation, officials said Saturday.

United States
10/28/04 Military in our nations' capitol placed on higher alert status prior to the general election day.
http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-477197.php

10/29/04 A former Clearwater man who tried to buy an old ambulance and two surplus police cruisers from St. Petersburg College in August is an "affiliate of a terrorist organization," according to police documents obtained Wednesday.
Abdalla Deiab, 51, was arrested in Michigan on Wednesday on a warrant charging him with failing to return a hired vehicle, a Largo rental car, Pinellas County sheriff's and Largo police officials said.
In a Sept. 30 police report, Largo police Officer Michael Bruno wrote that when he checked law enforcement databases on Deiab, he learned Deiab was affiliated with a terrorist organization and "should be approached with caution."

4. Attack method.
11/01/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

11/1/04 The Terrorist Threat Integration Center, a joint FBI-CIA intelligence-gathering organization, has drawn up possible attack scenarios for officials to look out for - based on information gathered from communication intercepts and interviews with al Qaeda detainees.
The most extreme of those scenarios includes a multi-pronged biological- and chemical-weapons attack; more airline hijackings; assaults on financial institutions with the use of car and truck bombs and an attack similar to the Madrid subway bombing in march.
Many believe that the ringleader of any possible attack is Adnan Shukriagumah, a 28-year-old Saudi-born Guyanese man who grew up in South Florida.
A $5 million reward has been offered for Shukriagumah, who has bomb- making skills, is trained to fly commercial jets and has been linked to Sept. 11 ringleader, Mohamed Atta.
Intelligence reports say Shukriagumah has hooked up with the El Salvadorian street gang, MS-13, which is known to be very adept at smuggling drugs and people into the United States.
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33063.htm

5. Personnel
11/01/04 Nothing new to report.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
11/01/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
10/26/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.

10/31/04 DHS Secretary Tom Ridge said that there are no specific threats other than those already identified. He says that the threat level will not be raised as a result of the OBL tape.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
11/01/04 4 carrier groups deployed (CV-67 Kennedy, CV-63 Kitty Hawk, CVN-75 Truman, CVN-72 Lincoln ). The CVN-70 Vinson is on Surge standby. CVN-74 Stennis has returned to port as of 11/01/04. The other carriers are in post deployment and / or maintenance.

11/01/04 F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. This is reportedly a part of an on-going deployment of unspecified duration.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
11/1/04 United States embassies in northern Europe said they have received "threat information" and urged Americans living in the Nordic and Baltic regions to be cautious.
In the rare warning for Americans in the region, the State Department urged all citizens "to be vigilant as to their surroundings, especially in centers of ground-based mass transit, and to report any unusual or suspicious persons, incidents or circumstances" to authorities, the embassy's Web site in Helsinki said.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NORTHERN_EUROPE_TERROR_WARNING?SITE=DCTMS&SECTION=HOME

10/31/04 Acting on the release of a new videotape from Osama bin Laden, the government has alerted state and local authorities to be extra vigilant ahead of Tuesday's elections.
The bulletin said the bin Laden tape and a second video from last week that showed a self-proclaimed American member of al-Qaida are "clearly intended to influence and instill fear in the American people."
"We remain concerned about al-Qaida's interest in attacking the American homeland, and we cannot discount the possibility that the video may be intended to promote violence or serve as a signal for an attack," according to the bulletin sent late Friday from the FBI and the Homeland Security Department.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
11/01/04 Nothing significant to report.