Posted on 10/11/2004 3:06:51 PM PDT by Olly
An Electoral Surge for Kerry
This is BusinessWeek Online's second look at how the Electoral College map is shaping up in the 2004 Presidential race. In our first look, President George W. Bush had taken a commanding lead in the race after the GOP convention in New York. Polls had showed him ahead in 30 states with 284 electoral votes -- 14 more than the 270 necessary to win the White House.
But a week of Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates has scrambled the electoral map again. Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry has closed Bush's lead in the popular vote and taken a tiny edge in the Electoral College.
THREE TOSS-UPS. Bush is clearly ahead in 28 states with 237 electoral votes, having lost a decisive edge in the pivotal battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. Kerry leads in 19 states and the District of Columbia, which account for 247 electoral votes. The three toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio, and Iowa -- with their 54 electoral votes will determine the winner.
The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House. Bush must win a megastate and at least two states captured by Al Gore in 2000, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon.
Kerry strongly leads Bush in states with 164 votes, while the incumbent has a wide lead in states with 152. But Bush's occasionally halting performance in the Sept. 30 encounter at the University of Miami cost him support across the board, while consolidating Kerry's backing among core Democrats.
BATTLEGROUNDS. That moved six previous toss-ups (all won by Gore in 2000) back into Kerry's camp -- at least for now. The new Kerry-leaning states are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. That gives the senator an edge in eight of the 20 original battleground states, compared to nine for Bush and three dead even.
Though Kerry has momentum, he shouldn't take anything for granted. Just as the first debate reshuffled the Electoral College lineup, his appearances in St. Louis and Tempe, Ariz., could change the current political landscape. And in this roller-coaster election year, the only constant has been constant change.
Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arizona 10 Arkansas 6 California 55 Colorado 9 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 D.C. 3 Florida 27 Georgia 15 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Illinois 21 Indiana 11 Iowa 7 Kansas 6
Kentucky 8 Louisiana 9 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 Michigan 17 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 Missouri 11 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 Nevada 5 New Hampshire 4 New Jersey 15 New Mexico 5 New York 31 North Carolina 15.
North Dakota 3 Ohio 20 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 South Carolina 8 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 34 Utah 5 Vermont 3 Virginia 13 Washington 11 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3
Olly: Since October 8, 2004
Go back to DU Olly.
Sorry. I mistitled the article.
Can I edit it?
Florida's in the bag. It's Ohio that's scary.
Remember the marrg ammd Bush win comfortably
w2004
ciao
Ohio has the marriage amendment on the ballot.
That should bring out Republicans en masse.
Hmm, and here I wasn't even aware that the European Union had an Electoral College.
I can't believe how stupid people in my state are. Ohioans own guns, don't like abortion, support the death penalty, and are generally patriotic. Not very good reasons to vote Democrat.
I tend to agree---I think Florida will be a solid win and Ohio could be the "Florida" of 2004 if we're not careful. I'd get some personal satisfaction out of Bush winning through a combination of other states--like Iowa, Wiconsin, New Mexico---rendering a Kerry win in Ohio irrelevant.
I agree, it's all about Ohio. Anybody here from Ohio that can let us know how it's going on the ground there?
I'm from Ohio. I attend Ohio State University.
Please use original titles. Your original title, "BusinessWeek: Kerry leading in Electoral College" was inaccurate and misleading.
Thanks.
I am from Ohio. The swing county of Clark County. I went and say President Bush here two weeks ago. Clark County is slightly more democratic than GOP, but only because of Springfield. My guess on Ohio is that at the current time a best guess would Bush by about 1.5 or 2 points.
I'm originally from Cleveland...from my experience, democrats populate the northern counties and republicans populate the southern ones.
Am I able to edit it?
And......? You think it's not going too well for W?
Not until after the third debate, don't want anything to interfere with the coverage. Expect something next Tuesday (the big news next Monday will be the weekend polls).
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