Oil Prices (My First Vanity)

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

I used to trade commodities. Two ways to look at it. Charts and fundamentals.

Lets start with charts. What you are seeing is a serious market anomaly. Look at a longer time line. What you will see is level prices and demand for a long time. This run up is not natural market action, and outside the bounds of what charting will help predict. What it does show is a massive drop in supply or massive decrease in supply (At least on an expected basis)

Layman's translation,
Something is really weird with oil prices.

The other way to look at oil is fundamentals.
Think of the world being covered by a fishing net. The strands represent time and place. Each node can be thought of as having a specific value. Call that node the basis. You calculate a basis based upon shipping cost and just how bad your customer needs the commodity or your supplier wants to get rid of that commodity.

Shipping costs for oil are through the roof, but shipping can not explain the run up. There is a limited amount of shipping capacity, but the buyers are more powerful than the shipping companies.
Demand in China is up but does not explain the run up. China grows at a known rate, and plans their needs. They buy on long term fixed price contracts.

Hurricanes slowed deliveries to the US but do not explain this type of run up. Prices should reflect a tug on the fish net. Tug up on the node on the southern US coast and it may impact oil costs delivered to places oil can be diverted to.

So as I see them, the reasons for the run up

1) HUGO CHAVES - Castro with oil
2) NIGERIA - Islamofachists insurgency in oil producing areas
3) IRAN - Nuclear aspiration leads to their destruction
4) IRAQ - Slower coming to market than expected
5) SAUDI - Big talk, with no walk in production increases
6) KUWAIT - Greedy a$$holes

7*) SPECULATORS -
- more info below
8**) SUPPLIER MANIPULATION - Think the California energy crisis for a minute.
more info below

*Speculators can affect prices dramatically. Futures are relatively cheap. If you don't care about losing money and have a lot, you can influence general prices. Other speculators follow you over a cliff like a herd of lemming magnifying your power dramatically. I would like to look at the activities of Soros and the French and Russian oil companies

**There are many options for supplier manipulation. Short ship a load and all of a sudden the other company is nailed with freight per unit that is way over what they expected. Many bulk shipping contracts are 10% more or less. Ship 10% less every time and you can bankrupt your customer. This is just one of a mirriad of methods to manipulate as a supplier.

I believe the manipulation is to influince the US presidential election.

[conservative cat]

Sounds like something Soros would do.

[Moonman62]

It's the weak dollar. Oil isn't the only commodity that's up.

[GeronL]

I think this is pretty much what a lot of people think is going on.

and I was waiting for the black helicopters... apparently I agree with you. I will know more after the next focus group. =o)

[DSBull]

Great analysis!

Send this to Cavuto, see if he runs with it..Doubt it..

Wish there was a way that someone, one of our Soros, could do an end around..

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

He is a trader of the spread between diff countries value of a unit of money. He has screwed a lot of countries. Yes it does sound like him, doesn't it. (Britain included)

[FairOpinion]

That's what I suspected, just from common sense. But it's nice to see an expert analysis from you.

The Arab countries don't want Bush to win, socialist Venezuela doesn't want Bush to win, Soros doesn't want Bush to win, and he is wealthy enough to have manipulated the English pound, so why not oil.

I just hope that Bush will win decisively and let these people self destruct.

[AZLiberty]

Soros will get burned for once. Who else could be behind this?

No one ever heard of the Hunt brothers after the silver bubble of the late '70s. I crave a similar fate for George Soros.

[FairOpinion]

Other commodities are nowhere near up as much as oil.

[DSBull]

Seize his wealth and distribute it to me...I'll Share with my FReeper buddies...

[Odyssey-x]

What's really starting to happen is China and India are beginning to start expanding their per-capita oil usage. If they used as much oil as Japan does per capita, and Japan is about the most energy efficient nation on the planet they'd need two saudi arabias running at full capacity. So there's a limited supply which means someone has to consume less, prices will keep going up until consumption is reduced which means they've got a long way to go. I don't dismiss that chavez/soros/etc are behind it but they are exploiting a problem that would be present to some degree even if they weren't actively involved in the mischief.

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

Soros will get burned for once. Who else could be behind this? No one ever heard of the Hunt brothers after the silver bubble of the late '70s. I crave a similar fate for George Soros.

I almost see it as an conservative think speculative opportunity. I can not believe the chart. It is nuts. Going vertical ???? NO WAY

[FreedomCalls]

We lost three off-shore oil rigs to the recent hurricanes. Several refineries in the caribbean were crippled. The other domestic refineries are switching from refining gasoline to home heating fuel to get ready for the winter season. It is all a matter of capacity in the refining sector, not the demand -- that coupled with a little profit making. Prices will ease by January. I would short the crude oil futures myself.

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

China has just commisioned 30 pebble bed reactors. They understand their energy needs.

Pebble bed reactors are the shixnitx

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

This is base price chief... not basis. No reason for the base price to move.

[Syncro]

Most likely Cavuto is in Soros' pocket.

If he isn't and runs with this, he will be put there.

JMO

[Moonman62]

But all oil with a few minor exceptions is priced in dollars, no matter who is selling or who is buying. As an example, the producers in the Middle East get payment in dollars, but usually trade for goods in Euros. They get whacked on both conversions. The weak dollar also affects all their wealth that's held in dollars. The big oil producing nations have been finding all sorts of excuses to curtail production that they normally wouldn't, though that's changed a bit in the past few months. The dollar isn't getting any weaker, but it isn't getting much stronger either.

Greenspan is raising rates which strengthens the dollar. He's done it three times, and curiously within a couple of days, Saudi Arabia has announced extra capacity each time.

[chemicalman]

I work at a refinery and we're making gasoline like crazy. So there's no shortage of crude to make the gasoline.

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

what is important is to understand is the diff between base price and basis. basis is time and place. no base changes have happened. the changes are time and place.