Posted on 10/10/2004 11:51:49 AM PDT by StJacques
You can "pop up" the page for yourself by clicking below:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html#analysis
Allow me to post a quote from their analysis:
"There is no question that the situation for Senator Kerry has improved dramatically in the last week. From an Electoral Vote standpoint, however, he is still facing an uphill battle.
Our earlier analysis suggesting that the race basically boils down to Florida and Ohio stands. However, it looks as if the aftermath of the hurricanes may have given President Bush a decisive edge there, so in reality it is now all about Ohio. If Kerry doesn't win Ohio he will not be President.
On balance, President Bush still holds the better Electoral hand because the evidence is massing that he has successfully moved Wisconsin into his column. Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory."
Not too bad for our guy I think.
Bush will NOT lose Ohio
I do not think it's responsible for RCP to boil this down to Ohio.
Funny things can happen with the Electoral Map in the last two weeks.
Look for Kerry's people to claim the Big Mo, in order to have the media tout a farcical upswing for their guy.
However, I still beleive it's Bush's to lose, and also that he might carry a few states that will shock the media.
New Jersey comes to mind.
I certainly hope not...but there are a lot of dead people in Cleveland.
As well as un-funny things, like in Spain or Russia.
I believe that the electoral map today reflects that temporary bump Kerry received after the first debate. That has already changed as Bush is up about four right now. The next electoral map in several days will swing back toward Bush again. He needs a solid third debate to seal it.
Then again there's Australia.
New Jersey may be the sleeper state, Galtoid. People forget that Reagan carried it twice by huge margins and that Bush 41 handily beat Dukakis there in 1988. The fact that Edwards was there twice this past week means it is not a safe Demo state and may be more attractive to Bush than Pennsylvania. People also forget that with redistricting, Bush's 271 electoral votes in 2000 are now 278 electoral votes from the same states, meaning he can lose New Hampshire AND Nevada and still win the election IF he wins just one of the two congressional districts in Maine (he can lose the state but he still gets ONE electoral vote if he carries a district). That would give him 270, one more than needed.
I am hoping that this election will not be that close. Please spare us the agony of recounting and litigation.
"As well as un-funny things, like in Spain or Russia."
What about this? I assume that you're talking about terrorism right before the election. We really haven't talked about this too much, but my gut tells me that if the terrorists are stupid enough to pull some stunt it would actually HELP the president. People who were unsure would pull the lever for Bush, because at least they can trust him to fight back. Any other thoughts on this?
If President Bush is carrying Wisconsin, he will most certainly carry the more conservative state of Ohio.
I hope you are in Ohio, sir, and are volunteering at the campaign. It has become clear for some time now that Freepers in Ohio are THE MOST IMPORTANT FREEPERS OF ALL and we must do all we can to help you volunteer for the campaign.
There is another Freeper named OhioWfan who is working hard there. Indiana, Kentucky and perhaps even PA Freepers should look into driving next door to Ohio and volunteering.
People, it's nice to speculate on other states, but let's keep it firmly in mind that if Bush wins Ohio, it's over. If we pour resources there, we are acting optimally. There are other ways to win and it's nice to think about New Jersey and Pennsylvania and Iowa and whatever, but if we win Ohio, it's over. Period.
Keep that in mind and find a way to help in Ohio.
Wish I had a nickel for every time this sentiment has been expressed on FreeRepublic.
From my reading of polls, that isn't being shown. There is also a factor of how much each candidate works to win each state. I don't think these state populations can be "labeled" Bush or Kerry as easily as labeling them conservative or liberal.
if you want to help in Ohio go here :
https://www.rapiddonor.com/ohiogop/
I don't feel the polls are showing that the President is losing Ohio either. I was responding to the initial poster on this thread who was concerned it would happen.
I just read at another forum it was Kerry 270 and Bush 248. (no, it wasn't DU, I don't go slumming)
I live in Utah. I may send you folks a check, however. My plan is to fly to Reno the weekend before election day to volunteer in Nevada. Or Vegas. Depends on airfare.
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