Hello, Gender Gap; Friday night in St. Louis, George W. Bush hurt himself with women.

The American Prospect ^ | 10/9/04 | Michael Tomasky

[MarlboroRed]

There's no point in doing a little political punditry in the October of an election year without going way out on a limb, so here goes: As I smelled it, the most important thing that happened in the second presidential debate is that George W. Bush lost a good chunk of the women's vote.

He's been ahead, you know, among large blocs of women. If you take away black women, who appear to vote more based on their race than their sex (and thus vote heavily Democratic), Bush leads John Kerry among women. The media have made great hoo-ha lately about this fact, noting and arguing that Bush was gaining steadily and building a solid lead among the "security moms" because of his successful attacks (read: fear-mongering lies) on Kerry's ability to fight terrorism.

I'm guessing that Friday night, that trend started shifting into reverse. It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer, the roosterish strutting -- and the voice. God, that voice. You don't quite call that screaming. It wasn't exactly caterwauling. Maybe yowling. Whatever it was, he sounded like a tedious and noisome braggart in the parking lot after a football game. Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.

They might have, if Kerry had come across, to extend the metaphor, as the inadequate sad sack portrayed in Bush's television commercials. But he didn't. Kerry was terrific. Far better, by my lights, than he was in the first debate. I know no one else will see it that way, because he was the first debate's obvious winner, while he merely edged out round two on points after Bush didn't show up in where-am-I-again? mode. But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed.

Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right. Certainly, this isn't the kind of angle that will have been discussed on the cable post-game shows. The few women permitted into the club are busy proving that they can be one of the guys (Andrea Mitchell) or that they can be just as sycophantic toward Bush as the big boys (Candy Crowley); they know that's the only way they can stay on television, so they sure aren't there to represent their sex.

It's very much worth remembering, in fact, how aggressively male a domain cable television is. The worst moment, when Bush just clearly behaved like a rude jerk, came at 9:36 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, when Charlie Gibson was trying to ask him a follow-up and Bush brusquely waved him off, interrupted, and charged forward and started yelping about Tony Blair. It was witnessing this moment that made me start to think about women viewers. But Chris Matthews, naturally, thought it was great. Which makes me think I'm on to something.

Polls won't deal with this question for a few days, and if they prove me wrong, they prove me wrong. But as hunches go, this strikes me as one worth playing.

Michael Tomasky is executive editor of The American Prospect.

[Thrusher]

Tell me I'm wrong.

You're wrong.

I cannot support anyone who seeks to reverse women's rights...

How could you support someone who intends to undercut women's true worth and success by pandering to them with affirmative-action-type government programs? Are women too stupid or too incompetent to succeed on their own?

I work in a traditionally "old boys club" industry. Any woman who can do the job and do it well is not only appreciated (and highly compensated), she is sought after... we "Neanderthal" men realize that she brings a new set of skills to the table, and she has better access to a booming market that can highly benefit our business: other women.

But if the government forced us to hire less qualified women only because they were women, and pay them just as much as a qualified woman or man? All that would do is breed resentment, and hostility, among the men, and the other women.

I know this is only anecdotal evidence, but the same holds true of any minority in my industry, at least in my experience.

Are there still a lot of "get my coffee, honey" men in my industry? Yes, but they are dying out. Our women are stealing their business, because a lot of the people they are working with now are women, and the men have wives and daughters in business who they don't want to see mistreated, either.

It has been women entrepreneurs and goal-driven women who worked hard to succeed that are changing the industry, not the government.

[redwhiteandblue]

This guy is just hoping. Did anyone see the CNN discussion with undecided voters? At least one WOMAN, the only person asked in which direction her vote had been swayed, said that the debate had put her in the Bush column. The basic reaction was that more men were positive on Kerry while the women were strongly positive for Bush. Now, we all know that Bush will take most of the male vote so I see this as bad news for Kerry.
By the way, was anyone else pumping their fists at the "You can run but you can't hide" line?
Also the prez regained the likability war. I loved his... I own a timber company????.... that's news to me. A few seconds later, he asks a audience member if he need some wood. All but the hard left haters like this guy. Last night he reconfirmed that connection with people. I think that is an important fact that may not even show up in the "who won the debate polls." It's very important for winning votes though.

Any thoughts?
Go Bush!

[doug from upland]

[maryz]

Psst! Maybe Carolinian is John Edwards!

[RightWingBev]

REAL WOMEN LIKE COWBOYS BETTER THAN UP TIGHT RICH MEN. SO BUSH HAS MY VOTE AND I AM A WOMAN

[albie]

According to the CNN focus group last night, Bush won big with the women. They even had one women say that based on last night's debate, she will be voting for Bush.

...I didn't see the focus group last night. Thanks for the info!!

[Semper Paratus]

After reading his article I'm convinced that Kerry has the "men who urinate sitting down" vote in the bag.

[JesseHousman]

You're not only wrong, you're confoundedly wrong.

[CajunConservative]

Bush = Cowboy.

Take it from there.

Kerry = Kept man.

[Warriormom]

I remember President Bush saying something about that and what I thought he was talking about were the maternity homes that we have here in Texas. They are Christian homes for young women who are pregnant and have nowhere else to go and they are supported by local churches. These women don't want abortions and they need somewhere to stay until their babies are born. The house parents make sure the girls make it to their doctor appointments and counseling is provided to aid them in placing their infants up for adoption (if that is their desire). Those that want to keep their babies are given instruction on how to parent. The girls are encouraged to work to provide for their babies, but they are in no way asked to pay for their living expenses at the home. Maternity clothes are even provided. The house parents are usually a Christian couple who offer counseling and lead Bible studies.

These girls are not in any way forced to be in the maternity home - they choose to be there because they want to have their babies and they need a little help.

When they leave the home, they are offered aid in finding someplace to live as well as given household items and furniture to help them get started.

Believe me - these are NOTHING like the old maternity homes were parents hid-out their children to cover their "shame".

I'm very sure this is what the President was talking about. These homes would fit perfectly into his "faith based initiative".

[MontanaBeth]

I cannot support anyone who seeks to reverse women's rights

If by women's rights you mean abortion or let's call it by it's right name, the murder of babies, then I hope you heard it right. A nation that allows the slaughter of infants does not deserve to be blessed. I hope this is the beginning of the end of the legal murder we now support as a nation. Beth (just my opinion)

[SuziQ]

Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.

This guy couldn't be more wrong! What women don't like are bullies, and the President is certainly NOT one of them. We don't mind his swagger or his confidence because we've seen the compassionate side of the man, too.

Kerry could never pull off the swagger; he'd just look stupid, and more elitist than he does now. If anyone lost women's votes last night it was Kerry with his condescending tone of voice. I didn't watch it, I listened on the radio, but that dripping, smarmy tone came through loud and clear.

[dc-zoo]

Ok.. sure

Carolinian
Since Sep 23, 2004

[No Longer Free State]

I am extremely upset over the comment about creating "maternity group homes". I do not want women to return to 1950. This may change my vote entirely. I cannot support anyone who seeks to reverse women's rights and that is what I heard President Bush saying last night. Tell me I'm wrong.

OK, you're wrong.

[SuziQ]

Tell me I'm wrong.

You're wrong. The President is probably trying to be helpful to young women who find themselves in difficult circumstances. Most unmarried young women who become pregnant stay at home nowadays, but there are some who are kicked out by their families. They need someplace to go so that they are not forced by circumstances to have an abortion. The President seems to understand this better than Kerry who just wants to help those girls 'get rid of their problem'.

[Mo1]

Kerry came off as an elitist snob who judge the audiance annual salary by the cloths they wore

You don't insult insult women by telling them they dress poorly and expect to win votes

[fightu4it]

" But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed."

What townhall debate was Tomasky watching? It certainly wasn't the one I was watching. George Bush kicked Jon Kerry's but friday night.

I thought that this meeting, more than anything else the republicans have done, showed John Kerry's phoneyness. Kerry only cares about Kerry, not the actual issues. Issues on which he can turn on a dime, as we all have witnessed.

[SuziQ]

Kerry is the epitome of every posturing, people-using boss, professor, teacher, etc., that women have had to put up with 'looking down at them'. "I'll have MY girl call YOUR girl"...

ROTFL!!! You are so RIGHT ON!!!

[HighlyOpinionated]

"maternity group homes"

I work in the welfare end of things. Do you know how many parents DUMP their Pregnant Daughters out on the street to live???

Enough to warrant "group maternity homes" believe me. There's a WAITING LIST for the few non-profit homes that we have in my State. Having a place for a pregnant teen to call 'home' is very important for the health of their babies. In larger cities, young pregnant girls live on the street or with whomever will take them, then show up at an emergency room to deliver a baby and have not had ANY prenatal care at all.

So YOU won't toss your pregnant 13 year old out on the Street? I'm glad you won't. But there are a thousand parents who will. These teens need a place to live, learn, and have healthy babies.

[SuziQ]

My mom and I were both watching and my moms only comment at the end was, "He should have hit him harder. Bush was being far too nice."

LOL!! I like your Mama!!

Sir SuziQ didn't watch it or listen to it. He can't stand to hear Kerry speak. When he came downstairs and asked how it went, I just jumped up outta my chair and laughed "Bush kicked his a$$ all over that stage!" Hubby just smiled!