Posted on 10/09/2004 7:32:34 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
There's no point in doing a little political punditry in the October of an election year without going way out on a limb, so here goes: As I smelled it, the most important thing that happened in the second presidential debate is that George W. Bush lost a good chunk of the women's vote.
He's been ahead, you know, among large blocs of women. If you take away black women, who appear to vote more based on their race than their sex (and thus vote heavily Democratic), Bush leads John Kerry among women. The media have made great hoo-ha lately about this fact, noting and arguing that Bush was gaining steadily and building a solid lead among the "security moms" because of his successful attacks (read: fear-mongering lies) on Kerry's ability to fight terrorism.
I'm guessing that Friday night, that trend started shifting into reverse. It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer, the roosterish strutting -- and the voice. God, that voice. You don't quite call that screaming. It wasn't exactly caterwauling. Maybe yowling. Whatever it was, he sounded like a tedious and noisome braggart in the parking lot after a football game. Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.
They might have, if Kerry had come across, to extend the metaphor, as the inadequate sad sack portrayed in Bush's television commercials. But he didn't. Kerry was terrific. Far better, by my lights, than he was in the first debate. I know no one else will see it that way, because he was the first debate's obvious winner, while he merely edged out round two on points after Bush didn't show up in where-am-I-again? mode. But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed.
Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right. Certainly, this isn't the kind of angle that will have been discussed on the cable post-game shows. The few women permitted into the club are busy proving that they can be one of the guys (Andrea Mitchell) or that they can be just as sycophantic toward Bush as the big boys (Candy Crowley); they know that's the only way they can stay on television, so they sure aren't there to represent their sex.
It's very much worth remembering, in fact, how aggressively male a domain cable television is. The worst moment, when Bush just clearly behaved like a rude jerk, came at 9:36 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, when Charlie Gibson was trying to ask him a follow-up and Bush brusquely waved him off, interrupted, and charged forward and started yelping about Tony Blair. It was witnessing this moment that made me start to think about women viewers. But Chris Matthews, naturally, thought it was great. Which makes me think I'm on to something.
Polls won't deal with this question for a few days, and if they prove me wrong, they prove me wrong. But as hunches go, this strikes me as one worth playing.
Michael Tomasky is executive editor of The American Prospect.
I agree with the author that Black Women were never in play, but White Women, the ones who'll vote in huge numbers, are interested in security now above all else, and in no way did Kerry appear strong yesterday on security.
Moreover, women like strong, confident men. It's always been so.
Bush = Cowboy.
Take it from there.
No way. Real women can't stand girly-men.
Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right.
YO MIKEY, Real world baby. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars!
Why was it when Kerry was talking, I saw some women in the background giving disgusted looks? They didn't roll their eyes, but one fat woman looked like she could puke.
This guy is pretty arrogant to think he knows what mannerisms cause women to vote the way they do. Arrogant fool. Maybe women vote on the, um, issues, bonehead?
Women who were turned off by Bush last night aren't women any more than Kerry, the metrosexual, is a war hero.
Any women turned off by Bush last night are adolescents who buy into the feminization of men that Oprah has been pushing for years.
Some women have no place to go when they're pregnant. I know of several Catholic "maternity group homes" where they take pregnant women in and take care of them. It's better than being out on the street or getting an abortion, isn't it?
Its called standing up for yourself,personally I found it very attractive compared to how Kerry acted. Kerry was very whiney with that its just unfair to label people line.
He did not lose the women.
The democrats are not grasping the fact that women are not soccer moms any longer; they are security moms.
They will be for some time to come.
As a group, women are more pro-life than men.
The author may have been born male, but he writes like a teenaged girl. His "hunch" is nothing more than wishful thinking. Deep down he surely knows that WOOD beats out PAPER every single time.
Is Tomasky queer ot just stupid?
I agree with Blues, Please place "Barf alert" in the title of stories with this content.
My advice for Michael or is it Michelle would be to cut back on the Estrogen.
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