Posted on 10/06/2004 9:30:13 PM PDT by Herakles
LONDON (CBS.MW) - Most voter polls have consistently put President Bush and Senator John Kerry in a near tie in presidential race, but some projections that use economic-based models say it's Bush in November.
An Economy.com model gives Bush 373 electoral college votes, well ahead of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Kerry lands only 10 states, according to the model -- Illinois and California are the only two outside a handful of East Coast states.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbs.marketwatch.com ...
Those same models predicted Gore would win easily in 2000.
NO COMPLACENCY!
I hope these models are accurate.
If Bush/Cheney blows it, I don't know what I'm going to do.
Head for the hills, I guess. Kerry's going to sell out the country to the UN and let it get bombed by terrorists so that he can implement nationalized health care and turn us into a communist car wreck like Canada.
More traditional projections based on voter preference polls show a much closer electoral college vote. A CNN poll survey on Sept. 28 showed 301 electoral votes for Bush.
A second econometrics model -- the President Vote Equation designed by Yale University professor Ray Fair -- has consistently shown a Bush win. In July, the equation predicted a 57.48 percent vote for Bush.
This is not technically economics---it is econometrics.
It can be VERY accurate.
The career accuracy of one econometric model is +/-2.5%, and this summer it stated the President would win with 57%.
GMTA
That would satisfy my poll freak. But to be honest, I simply don't see anything that convinces me Kerry will win. And I'm no optimist.
Sometimes it isn't a matter of "blowing it", but events that no one can predict...and the reaction of the voters to the events...
Well, unless there is (God forbid!) a mobilizing event like another 9/11, I do not see 373 EV for Bush with Kerry in 10-12 states only. RAT operation looks more serious than that, and not likely to self-destruct and implode. (Why can't we have Howard Dean?? It would be so much more fun to watch). I think GWB will win, but with smaller margin, within 50 EV, not 200 EV.
The final Fair model in 2000 predicted Gore would win the popular vote with 50.8% of the two-part vote. He won it with I believe 50.2%.
That said, I simply cannot see, the electorate being as it is, Bush winning 57.5% of the popular vote, or even the lower end of the 2% standard error. We shall see.
That's ridiculous. Bush won't get more than 350 unless he carries all of the swing states.
No he got less than 50% (48.38%) of the popular vote.
Perhaps its time to go to tradesports.com and buy Bush +350. At 12.5, it looks pretty tasty.
Err sorry, I kinda worded that wrong. I was referring to the two-party vote (excluding Nader, etc), which is what the Fair model predicts.
Isn't there a false assumption here that a too large number of people correctly perceive what's happening with the economy? It seems that Bush I proved that they don't.
blue helmets make nice targets. Fear not the UN, when have they been successful??
I think perception of the economy lags actual economic performance by at least a year.
I think Nader would call that the unFair model
In Iowa, Dims are out-registering Pubbies with new voters 10-1.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.