Posted on 10/03/2004 6:37:12 PM PDT by Libloather
Democrats slowly behind
GUEST OPINION
By JOHN BRUMMETT
October 1, 2004
While the rest of you have stewed over the presidential race, I've looked into whether the Democrats might take back the U.S. Senate or the Republicans might increase their lead to something so formidable as to be nearly immune to filibuster and veto.
The answer is yes. The Democrats might. The Republicans might. It's that fluid, that wild. And it might be more important to the course of public policy than the presidential outcome.
Here are the numbers: The Republicans control the Senate by 51-48-1. If the Democrats could pick up but two seats in November, they would control the Senate 50-49-1. (That one, Vermont independent Jim Jeffords, is on the Democratic team for organizational purposes.) There are 34 Senate seats on ballots this year, but only 10 are relevant for our contemplation.
Let's begin in Illinois, where a retiring Republican senator's seat is certain to be won by a new-generation Democrat, Barack Obama. But now let's go to Georgia, where the nominal Democrat named Zell Miller is retiring and where his seat will assuredly be won by a congressman equally Republican in action but honestly Republican by affiliation. The name is John Isakson. That's a wash.
That leaves eight seats that could go either way. I could make a case for either side in each of them. And I believe that's precisely what I'll do, proceeding alphabetically.
Alaska - The Republican, Lisa Murkowski, has the advantage of incumbency. But she was named to the seat by her father, who'd held it and then become governor. That so angered Alaskans that they put a citizens' initiative on this fall's ballot to remove such gubernatorial authority. Murkowski could lose to a conservative Democrat and former governor, Tony Knowles.
Colorado - The Democratic nominee for an open seat is a former attorney general, Ken Salazar. The Republican nominee is beer baron Peter Coors. It's close.
Florida - The Republicans persuaded the Hispanic HUD secretary, Mel Martinez, to resign and run for the seat that Bob Graham, a Democrat, is vacating. The Democrats like their nominee, former education commissioner Betty Castor. Floridians are so preoccupied with the weather they haven't given the race any thought.
Louisiana - In this crazy state where John Breaux, the moderate Democrat, is retiring, the Republican, Rep. David Vitter, will lead the "first primary" Nov. 2. After that he'll face the number-two finisher, surely a Democrat, in a runoff. It would be fun, though somewhat alarming, if everything was otherwise even after Nov. 2 and Louisiana voters stepped into the national spotlight to decide control of the Senate.
North Carolina - Erskine Bowles, a Democrat and a former Clinton chief of staff, leads the Republican, Rep. Richard Burr, for John Edwards' seat, but no Democratic lead is ever safe in this state.
Oklahoma - This is a Republican state if I ever saw one, but the GOP nominee to replace retiring Don Nickles, Rep. Tom Coburn, is an obstetrician who has been rocked by reports of his sterilizing patients without their written permission. (He said he had oral permission.) The Democrat, Rep. Brad Carson, is a conservative who has been hiding from John Kerry.
South Carolina - Just as Republican as Oklahoma, this state seems to have taken a shine to the Democrat, Inez Tenenbaum, twice elected state education superintendent, against three-term Republican Rep. Jim DeMint. Amazingly, she has more money for the stretch run.
South Dakota - This is the real kicker. It appears possible that the Democrats could retake the Senate but have to pick another majority leader. Tom Daschle could well get beat by John Thune, a Republican who, as the state's lone congressman, runs statewide.
I'd watch Oklahoma, South Carolina and Colorado. The typical voter in those states will cast a ballot for George W. Bush. But will he then cast one for a Democrat for the U.S. Senate?
In a world where all politics remains local, such schizophrenia is not out of the question.
Brummett is an award-winning columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and author of "High Wire," a book about Bill Clinton's first year as president. His e-mail address is jbrummett@arkansasnews.com.
We have to remember that Castor is the one who let Sami al-Arian run rampant at USF. she needs to be held accountable for that......She is the second coming of Nancy Pulosi
The news is getting out about Betty Castor's disasterous decisions re: The Terrorist Professor. She even vaguely refers to it in her ad. If Martinez can jump on that he will win in a landslide. Graham has been an embarrasment for years...and I can hardly wait to vote "NO" on the slate of jusdges for SCOFLA, which is coming up.
I agree fully. Well said.
I realize that Martinez is possibly an ideal choice from a political point of view. But I worry that he might be a RINO. His past contributions to Democrats and in particular to Joe Biden are troubling. Graham was as antigun as they came, so was Lawton Chiles but their folksyness overcame that and they kept on winning to the shame of Florida. I would hate to replace them with somebody else opposed to the 2nd Amendment.
This writer needs to do his homework. John Thune hasn't been S.D.'s lone congressman in two years.
Electoral-vote.com is saying we'll lose the Senate by at least 2 seats.
That means narrow Democratic control of the Senate. Its touch and go from here to November.
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